Fairfax Research International poll September 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Dates: 22 to 26 August 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 54.3% (-2.8%)
• Labour 28.1% (+2.4%)
• Green 10.1% (-0.9%)
• ACT 1.5% (+0.4%)
• Maori 1.3% (-0.3%)
• United Future 0.4% (+0.3%)
• Mana 0.2% (-0.4%)
• NZ First 2.3% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

• National 68
• Labour 35
• Green 13
• ACT 2
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 35 + Greens 13 + Mana 1= 49/124 -14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• John Key 51.0% (-3.6%)
• Phil Goff 6.9% (-1.6%)
• Winston Peters 3.0% (+0.2%)

Biggest events poll

The Herald on Sunday and Key Research asked 501 Aucklanders which of four events would have the greatest impact on their lives:

• Election 27.3%
• Rugby World Cup 26.3%
• Canterbury earthquakes 24.0%
• Auckland Supercity 13.6%

Roy Morgan poll late September 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 938, of whom 882 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6%

Dates: 28 August to 11 September 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 57.0% (+5.0%)
• Labour 26.0% (-3.5%)
• Green 7.5% (-1.5%)
• ACT 1.5% (-0.5%)
• Maori 2.5% (+1.0%)
• United Future 0.5% (nc)
• NZ First 3.5% (nc)
• Mana 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 71
• Labour 33
• Green 9
• ACT 2
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 71 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 74/121 – 13 more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 33 + Greens 9 + Mana 1 = 43/122 – 18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 60.0% (+1.0%)
• Wrong 28.0% (+0.5%)
• Can’t Say 12.0% (-1.5%)

Roy Morgan Poll late August 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 845, of whom 803 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5%

Dates: 15 August to 28 August 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 52.0% (+1.5%)
• Labour 29.5% (-2.5%)
• Green 9.0% (+1.5%)
• ACT 2.0% (nc)
• Maori 1.5% (nc)
• United Future 0.5% (nc)
• NZ First 3.5% (-0.5%)
• Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 65
• Labour 37
• Green 11
• ACT 3
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/122 – 7 more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 49/122 – 13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 59.0% (+2.0%)
• Wrong 27.5% (-1.5%)
• Can’t Say 13.5% (-0.5%)

Fairfax Research International Poll August 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000, of whom xxx had a party preference

Dates: 25 to 29 August 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 57.1% (+1.1%)
• Labour 25.7% (-3.3%)
• Green 11.0% (+4.6%)
• ACT 1.1% (-1.1%)
• Maori 1.6% (+0.4%)
• United Future 0.1% (-0.1%)
• Mana 0.6% (+0.4%)
• NZ First 2.2% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 70
• Labour 32
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 70 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 72/123 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 32 + Greens 14 + Mana 1= 47/123 -15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• John Key 54.6% (+1.6%)
• Phil Goff 8.5% (+2.3%)
• Winston Peters 2.8% (+0.3%)

Labour Leadership

• 20% say they are more likely to vote Labour if they change leader
• 11% say less likely
• 65% say no difference

Rugby World Cup

• 68% think NZ will win
• 11% Australia
• 7% South Africa
• 2% England

NZ Herald Digipoll August 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 11.2%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 666 had a party vote preference

Dates: 19 to 26 August 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

• National 52.0% (-0.3%)
• Labour 31.5% (-1.6%)
• Green 9.8% (+1.5%)
• NZ First 2.4% (+1.5%)
• Maori 1.8% (-0.2%)
• United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
• ACT 1.2% (-0.2%)
• Mana 0.6% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

• National 65
• Labour 39
• Green 12
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• ACT 1
• Mana 1
• Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/123 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 52/124 -10 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 69.7% (-0.6%)
• Goff 11.5% (+2.2%)
• Peters 5.2% (+2.2%)
• Clark 5.8% (-2.1%)

Direction

• Right 59.5% (+2.0%)
• Wrong 32.2% (-1.6%)
• Unsure 8.3% (-0.4%)

3 News Reid Research Poll August 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 13 August to 17 August 2011

Client: 3 News

Report:

Party Support

• National 54.0% (-1.1%)
• Labour 28.8% (-1.1%)
• Green 9.3% (+0.2%)
• ACT 2.2% (+0.5%)
• Maori 1.5%  (+0.7%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana 0.9% (+0.2%)
• NZ First 2.2% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 67
• Labour 36
• Green 11
• ACT 3
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 67 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – 9 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
• CL – Labour 36 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 48/124 -14 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 53% (+2.5%)
• Goff 8% (+1.1%)

Leadership Approval

• Key – 74.9% (+2.8%) doing well vs 14.5% (+0.6%) doing poorly – net positive is 60.4% (+2.2%)
• Goff  – 26.1% (+1.8%) doing well vs 52.5% (+2.7%) doing poorly – net positive is -26.4% (-0.9%)

Policy Preference

• 53% prefer a capital gains tax while 31% preferred partial asset sales

One News Colmar Brunton Poll August 2011

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,006, of whom 847 had a party preference

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 13 to 17 August 2011

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 56.0% (+3.0%)
• Labour 30.0% (+3.0%)
• Green 6.0% (-4.0%)
• ACT 1.7% (-1.4%)
• Maori 1.4% (-1.6%)
• United Future 0.5% (+0.2%)
• Mana 0.9% (+0.4%)
• NZ First 2.3% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

• National 69
• Labour 37
• Green 8
• ACT 2
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 69 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 72/122 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Greens 8 + Mana 1= 46/122 -16 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• John Key 57% (+3%)
• Phil Goff 8% (-1%)
• Winston Peters 2% (-1%)

Economic Outlook

• Better 49% (-3%)
• Worse 31% (+3%)
• Same 19% (-1%)

Rugby World Cup

• Hosting cost of $40m is money well spent – 54% agree, 40% disagree
•  50% less likely to buy Adidas in future due to jersey prices
• 69% think All Blacks will win, 17% do not