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This blog has migrated over to the main Curia website at www.curia.co.nz. All the archives have transferred there also, so please go there to see updated polls.

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Roy Morgan poll May 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 866 of whom 823 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 04 May to 17 May 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 54.0% (+8.5%)
  • Labour 25.5% (-2.0%)
  • Green 10.5% (-3.0%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (-2.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 31
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/121 – eight more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 13 = 44/121 – 17 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 1 = 8/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.0% (+1.0%)
  • Wrong 26.5% (-0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 10.5% (-0.5%)

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Euthanasia Poll April 2015

Research NZ surveyed 501 people:

  • 74% support doctors being allowed to end a patient’s life if they request it and have a painful incurable disease
  • 20% opposed to doctors being allowed to end a patient’s life if they request it and have a painful incurable disease
  • 51% support a close relative being allowed to end a patient’s life if they request it and have a painful incurable disease
  • 41% opposed to a close relative being allowed to end a patient’s life if they request it and have a painful incurable disease

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Head of State Poll April 2015

New Zealand Republic announced:

Our annual poll was conducted between April 6 and April 21 and shows 47% of Kiwis want our next Head of State to be a New Zealander. This is a rise of 3% since June 2014.

This is great news for our campaign with the poll showing a corresponding decrease in support for the British Monarch to 46%. This is the highest ever result in our annual poll and the first time we have measured higher support than the Monarchy. Undecided voters remained at 7%.

The poll of 1000 people was carried out on landlines by Curia Market Research.

The detailed results were:

What is your preference for New Zealand’s next Head of State out of the following three options?

 * The next British Monarch becomes King of New Zealand? 46%

* New Zealand has a New Zealander as Head of State elected by a two thirds majority in Parliament   11%

* New Zealand has a New Zealander as Head of State who is elected by the popular vote 36%

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NZ Herald DigiPoll April 2015

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 of whom 662 have a party preference

Undecideds: 11.8%

Dates: 17 April to 26 April 2015

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (+0.6%)
  • Labour 28.7% (-0.2%)
  • Green 10.8% (+1.3%)
  • NZ First 6.1% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 0.8% (-0.7%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.4%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.1% (-1.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 35
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/121 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 13 = 48/121 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 1 = 8/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 64.6% (-0.4%)
  • Andrew Little 13.9% (+0.3%)
  • Winston Peters 12.0% (+6.1%)

Ports of Auckland

  • 46% of Aucklanders support the Port extensions, 50% are opposed
  • 45% of non Aucklanders support the Port extensions, 45% are opposed

NZ Flag

  • Time for a new flag yes 25%
  • Time for a new flag no 70%

Surplus

  • 37% say not achieving surplus by 2014/15 does not matter
  • 29% says not achieving surplus seriously dents National’s credibility
  • 29% says not achieving surplus matters but not much if only delayed a year

Auckland Mayoralty (asked of all NZers, not just Aucklanders)

  • Phil Goff 27%
  • John Campbell 21%
  • Len Brown 8%
  • John Banks 7%
  • Maurice Williamson 5%
  • Penny Hulse 5%
  • Cameron Brewer 3%
  • Don’t Know 25%

Iraq

  • 57% agree with decision to deploy troops
  • 34% disagree

Intelligence Agencies

  • 33% say they always work within the law
  • 30% say did not have confidence in them in the past but now more confident they act properly

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Q+A poll on Iraq

One News reports:

A special ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll shows most people believe the main reason the Government is sending troops to Iraq to support the fight against ISIS is to remain in a good relationship with our allies, the United States and Britain.

  • 49% of those surveyed said the main reason New Zealand troops are heading to Iraq to help train Iraqi security forces is to maintain good relationships with the US and UK.

  • 30% believed the troops are going there because it is the right thing to do.

  • 9% said it is for some other reason.

  • 11% don’t know.

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Roy Morgan poll April 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 888 of whom 852 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 06 April to 19 April 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Scoop

Party Support

  • National 45.5% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 27.5% (-3.5%)
  • Green 13.5% (+2.5%)
  • NZ First 8.5% (+2.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 34
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 17 = 51/121 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 13/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 62.0% (-2.5%)
  • Wrong 27.0% (+3.0%)
  • Can’t Say 11.0% (-0.5%)

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One News Colmar Brunton poll April 2015

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 859 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 9%

Dates: 11 April to 15 April 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (nc)
  • Labour 31.0% (nc)
  • Green 9% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.2%)
  • Maori 0.8% (-0.8%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 1.1% (+0.7%)
  • NZ First 7.0% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 38
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/121 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 11 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 1 + NZ First 9 = 10/121

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 42% (+1.0%)
  • Andrew Little 11% (-1%)
  • Winston Peters 10% (+3.0%)

Economic Direction

  • Better 48% (-5%)
  • Worse 28% (+4%)
  • Same 24% (+1%)

Cannabis

  • Remain illegal in all cases 25% (+4% from 2013)
  • Illegal but an be prescribed for pain relief by doctors 36% (-11%)
  • Should be decriminalised 32% (+11%)
  • Should be legalised 7% (-2%)

Zero hour contracts

  • Should be illegal 77%
  • Not illegal 19%

David Bain

  • Should be paid compensation 69%
  • No compensation 19%

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One News Colmar Brunton Northland Poll

Poll results are at Colmar Brunton.

  • Winston Peters 53%, Mark Osbrone 36%, WIllow-Jean Prime 9%
  • 69% of Labour supporters voting Peters and 15% of National supporters
  • 71% say National has made spending pledges only because they are worried Peters may win, 19% disagree
  • Only 4% say National’s spending pledges made it more likely they will vote National and 20% less likely
  • Party Vote – National 49%, Labour 20%, NZF 20%, Greens 8%

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3 News Northland poll

3 News reports:

The latest 3 News-Reid Research poll shows Mr Peters is ahead in the race for the electorate. He’s way ahead on 54 percent, with National candidate Mark Osborne polling only 34 percent. …

Bridges is another big issue, with National promising up to $69 million for bridges in the region.

Asked if it’s a bribe, 74 percent of voters said yes, 22 percent said no and the rest – 4 percent – said they didn’t know.

“People can see through it – they know it’s just a bribe,” says Mr Peters.

Still, a majority – 58 percent – said they want the bridges, while quite a lot – 39 percent – said they didn’t. The rest didn’t know.

Asked if they trust Winston Peters, 43 percent said yes, while a majority 48 percent said no. The rest didn’t know.

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