Archive for May, 2012

US military exercises poll

The NZ Herald reports:

A Herald-DigiPoll of 750 voters conducted shortly after the announcement of the Alam Halfa exercise suggests more people approve of the resumption of exercises, but not overwhelmingly.

Asked, “Do you approve or disapprove of the United States resuming military exercises in New Zealand,” 47.6 per cent approved, 44 per cent disapproved and 8.4 per cent didn’t know or wouldn’t say.

A surprising level of disapproval.

Defence Minister Jonathan Coleman said he was a little surprised and thought support for the exercises might be higher but respondents might have thought it involved ship visits.

I suspect so.

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Contraception for Beneficiaries

Stuff reports:

The public is right behind the Government’s plans to stop beneficiaries having babies.

Although critics have attacked the decision to provide free contraception for beneficiaries, two polls show the public loves the idea.

Nearly 80 per cent of respondents in a Sunday Star-Times reader poll supported funding long-term reversible contraception for female beneficiaries and their 16 to 19-year-old daughters. More than half wanted the Government to go further.

And a Research New Zealand poll found 65 per cent support, and that while those on low incomes were less likely to favour the proposal, there was still 54 per cent support among those earning less than $40,000.

Note the SST readers poll is not a scientific random poll.

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Roy Morgan poll late April 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 889, of whom 840 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 16 April 2012 to 29 April 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 28.5% (+2.0%)
  • Green 15.0% (+2.5%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 35
  • Green 18
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – 3 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 18 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 60/121 – 1 fewer than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.0% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 32.5% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (-1.0%)

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Epsom poll

The Herald on Sunday reports:

Banks, copping heavy criticism over donations from Kim Dotcom and SkyCity listed as being anonymous from his 2010 mayoralty bid, has lost a great deal of support, according to the Herald on Sunday-Key Research survey.

Only 10 per cent of electors would vote for him now – down from 44.1 per cent at the election last November – and a National candidate would romp home.

More said they would vote for a Labour candidate than for Banks. In a party vote, the vast majority would vote National, and fewer than 1 per cent would vote Act.

Nearly half of voters – 46.7 per cent – say they have a lower opinion of Banks after his statements of the past week on local government election donations.

The telephone survey of 510 eligible voters in the Epsom electorate aged 18+ has a margin of error of +/- 4.34 per cent.

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Non Voting Poll

Colmar Brunton polled 1,097 voters and 272 non voters for the Electoral Commission.

  • 84% of voters voted on e-day, 16% prior
  • 37% of non voters were unaware of advance voting and of them, 59% say they would have voted if aware
  • 87% of respondents aware of referendum, being 93% of voters and 66% of non-voters
  • 67% of respondents felt fairly or very confident of knowing enough to make a decision for the referendum
  • 64% of non-voters considering voting
  • 43% of non voters decided not to vote on election day
  • Factors listed as significantly influencing the decision not to vote
    • Don’t trust politicians 53%
    • Obvious who would win 57%
    • Not interested in politics 54%
    • Makes no difference to me who wins 55%
    • My vote won’t make a difference 66%
    • Not enough info to choose 54%
    • Not like the personalities 68%

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NZ Herald Digipoll April 2012

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 7.1%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 697 had a party vote preference

Dates: 19 to 29 April 2012

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 48.1% (-2.8%)
  • Labour 34.8% (+6.8%)
  • Green 9.2% (-2.6%)
  • NZ First 4.9% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 1.7% (+1.3%)
  • United Future 0.7% (+0.7%)
  • ACT 0.0% (-1.8%)
  • Mana 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Conservative 0.1% (-1.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 44
  • Green 12
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 611 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/123 – 1 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 44 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 57/126 -5 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 63.9% (-2.4%)
  • Shearer 13.1% (-6.4% from Goff)
  • Peters 6.4% (+0.9%)
Country Direction

  • Right 49.2% (-5.2%)
  • Wrong 42.1% (+5.4%)
  • Unsure 8.7% (-0.2%)

Paid Parental Leave

  • In favour of extending to 26 weeks 48.6%
  • Against 48.4%

Sky City deal

  • 40.3% disapprove
  • 37.7% approve so long as number of pokies over the city drops

 

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