Posts Tagged Auckland

Fairfax Ipsos poll 11 September 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 873 have a party preference

Undecideds:

Dates: 04 September to 11 September 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 52.8% (-1.4%)
  • Labour 22.4% (-1.9%)
  • Green 13.0% (+0.1%)
  • NZ First 4.4% (+0.8%)
  • Maori 1.0% (+0.7%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 0.7% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 1.4% (+0.1%)
  • Conservative 3.6% (+1.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 70
  • Labour 29
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 70 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 72/123 – 10 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 29 + Greens 17 + Mana 2 = 48/123 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 57.5% (-0.1%)
  • David Cunliffe 17.5% (nc)

Housing Policies

  • 49% prefer National’s home start grants
  • 38% prefer Labour’s Kiwibuild

Next National Leader

  • Bill English 33%
  • Steven Joyce 22%
  • Paula Bennett 11%
  • Simon Bridges 9%

Affordability of Spending Promises

  • National +42% (62% affordable, 20% unaffordable)
  • Labour -5%
  • NZ First -3%
  • Greens -26%
  • Conservatives -9%
  • Internet Mana -32%

Auckland Transport

  • City Rail Link 40% most important
  • 2nd harbour crossing 32%
  • Dominion Road upgrade 15%
  • Puhoi to Wellsford 12%

Auckland Growth

  • 55% support new suburbs
  • 38% build high rises

 

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Auckland Mayoral poll

Radio Live report:

The latest UMR research poll indicates a strong majority for Len Brown in the upcoming Mayoral election – the current Mayor sitting on a cool 47 percent of the total vote, 66 percent of the decided vote.

New challenger John Palino is in second place, with 14 percent of the total vote and 20 percent of the decided vote. MANA Party secretary John Minto is third, with five and seven percent respectively.

 

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Biggest events poll

The Herald on Sunday and Key Research asked 501 Aucklanders which of four events would have the greatest impact on their lives:

  • Election 27.3%
  • Rugby World Cup 26.3%
  • Canterbury earthquakes 24.0%
  • Auckland Supercity 13.6%

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TV3 Poll early October 2010

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 863 have a party preference, (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 27 September to 06 October 2010

Client: TV3

Report:

Party Support

  • National 53.8% (-0.7%)
  • Labour 32.6% (+2.0%)
  • Green 7.6% (-0.9%)
  • ACT 0.9% (-1.3%)
  • Maori 2.4%  (+0.9%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • NZ First 1.2% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 40
  • Green 9
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT  and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/123 – 7 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 9 = 49/124 -13 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 50.6% (+1.9%)
  • Clark 3.7% (+1.4%)
  • Goff 8.8% (+1.4%)
  • Peters 3.4% (-0.3%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 75.9% (+6.0%) doing well vs 11.9% (-4.0%) doing poorly – net positive is 64.0% (+10.0%%)
  • Goff  – 34.2% (+3.3%) doing well vs 41.9% (-2.0%) doing poorly – net positive is -7.7% (+5.3%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • honest – Key by 18% (-2%)
  • down to earth – Key by 13% (+1%)
  • understands econ problems – Key by 26% (+3%)
  • has personality – Key by 46% (nc)
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 3% (-2%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • inexperienced – Key by 3% (-10%)
  • out of touch – Key by 0% (-4%)

Auckland Mayoralty (500 sample)

  • 56% Brown
  • 34% Banks
Rodney Hide
  • 23% say he should stay as ACT leader
  • 35% say he should step down
  • 36% say he should resign from Parliament

Act Leadership

  • 30% want Heather Roy (of those who did not say Hide should stay)
  • 17% Roger Douglas
  • 11% John Boscawen
  • 42% None

 

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Auckland Mayoralty Poll

The Herald reports a Digipoll of 750 Aucklanders:

  • Len Brown 28.9% (-0.7%)
  • John Banks 27.8% 9-0.9%)
  • Andrew Williams 1.0% (-3.9%)
  • Colin Craig 1.9% (-1.6%)
  • Undecided 35.2%
  • In a crisis such as an earthquake 27.9% would opt for Banks and 19.2% for Brown
  • If Chch Mayor Bob Parker stood, 36.2% said they would vote for him

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Auckland Council poll

The Herald reports a Herald Digipoll:

A Herald-DigiPoll survey found 36.3 per cent of Aucklanders believe C&R, which has controlled the Auckland City Council for many years, should control the new Auckland Council. A total of 39.9 per cent of respondents said C&R should not control it and 23.7 per cent did not know or refused to answer.

The poll found 54.8 per cent had heard of C&R and 43.7 per cent had not.

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Curia poll on Auckland Mayoralty

Curia was commissioned to do a poll of 1,200 Auckland residents on the upcoming mayoral elections, on behalf of Hon John Banks. The poll was done over five days last week.

The client, has given permission for the topline results to be released publicly.

There are some differences in methodology from other recent polls on the Mayoralty. These are:

  1. The Curia poll sample and responses reflect turnout for the 2007 local govt elections. In other words, the proportion of responses from one particular territorial local authority is approximately the same proportion of votes cast in that TLA, as a share of the entire region.
  2. The Curia poll has a large sample of 1,200 responses, which has a margin of error of only 2.9%. A recent other poll had a 4.6% margin of error.
  3. The Curia poll asks respondents who would be their preference for Mayor, not who they think will be a better Mayor, as asked in a recent other poll.
  4. The Curia poll was taken as a snapshot over five days, the other recent poll was taken over seventeen days.
  5. The Curia poll was a short stand alone poll, not part of a longer omnibus poll.
  6. Two questions were asked – first an unprompted question on which Aucklander they would like to be Mayor, and then a second question asking their preference if it is a choice between Auckland Mayor John Banks and Manukau Mayor Len Brown.

The first question was:

If an election was held today for Mayor of the new Auckland Supercity, which Aucklander would you most like to be Mayor?

  1. John Banks 42.5%
  2. Len Brown 38.1%
  3. Bob Harvey 7.2%
  4. Stephen Tindall 4.8%
  5. Others 3.2%
  6. Paul Holmes 1.4%
  7. Mike Lee 1.3%
  8. Michael Barnett 1.3%
  9. Andrew Williams 0.4%

These are percentages of those who had an opinion. 34.1% of respondents could not or would not name a preferred Mayor unprompted.

The second question was:

If the choice for Mayor of the Auckland Super City was between Manukau City Mayor Len Brown and Auckland City Mayor John Banks, which one would be your preference?

John Banks 50.0%

Len Brown 50.0%

In a two way race, an identical number of respondents supported both John Banks and Len Brown.  14.8% of respondents were undecided, or would not express a preference.

The change since September

A poll was also done in September 2009 of 1,200 respondents. Changes between the two polls are:

  • Banks Unprompted – from 39.0% in Sep 09 to 42.5% in Feb 10
  • Brown Unprompted – from 44.5% in Sep 09 to 38.1% in Feb 10
  • Banks Prompted – from 45.1% in Sep 09 to 50.0% in Feb 10
  • Brown Unprompted – from 54.9% in Sep 09 to 50.0% in Feb 10

In my opinion this reflects the higher profile John Banks has had in the first two months of 2010, and lower profile of Len Brown.

John Banks’ press secretary, Scott Campbell, can be contacted on 021 426 342 or by e-mail if comment is desired.

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