3 News Reid Research Poll April 2013

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Approx 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 13 to 18 April 2013

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 49.4% (-2.0%)
• Labour 30.2% (-2.4%)
• Green 11.5% (+0.7%)
• ACT 0.5% (+0.4%)
• Maori 1.0%  (+0.6%)
• United Future
• Mana 1.0% (+1.0%)
• NZ First 3.8% (+0.4%)
• Conservative 2.0% (+1.1%)

Projected Seats

• National 63
• Labour 39
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/123 – three more than minimum 63 needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 55/123 – seven fewer than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 37.6% (-3.4%)
• Shearer 10.0% (nc)
• Peters
• Norman

Leadership Performance Ratings

• John Key – 55.3% (-1.5%) well and 32.2% (+6.4%) poor = +23.1% net well (-7.9%)
• David Shearer – 32.4% (-2.5%) well and 35.8% (-3.8%) poor = -3.4% net well (-6.3%)

GCSB

• 50% trusted
• 40% not trusted
• 11% unsure

Kim Dotcom

• 48% should be allowed to stay
• 42% sent to US
• 10% unsure

 

One News Colmar Brunton Poll April 2013

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,009 respondents of whom 835 had a voting preference

Undecideds: Dates: 13 to 17 April 2013

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 43.0% (-6.0%)
• Labour 36.0% (+3.0%)
• Green 13.0% (+2.0%)
• ACT 0.1% (nc)
• Maori 1.3% (+0.3)
• United Future 1.0% (+0.8%)
• Mana 0.1% (-0.4%)
• NZ First 3.0% (-0.9%)
• Conservative 1.7% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

• National 55
• Labour 46
• Green 16
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Conservative 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/123 – five fewer than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 46 + Greens 16 + Mana 1= 63/123 – one more than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• John Key 39% (-5.0%)
• David Shearer 15% (nc)
• Winston Peters 3% (-2%)

Economic Outlook

• Better 50% (+2%)
• Same 19% (-3%)
• Worse 31% (+1%)

 Partial Asset Sales

• Support 29% (+1%)
• Opposed 64% (nc)
• Unsure 8% (+2%)

Paid Parental Leave

• 62% support extension from 14 to 26 weeks
• 34% opposed

Trust in Security Services

• 32% do not trust
• 32% trust
• 33% in the middle

Relationship with China

• 41% comfortable
• 30% uncomfortable
• 28% neutral

Roy Morgan poll early April 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 879 of whom 830 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 01 April 2013 to 14 April 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 40.5% (-3.5%)
• Labour 35.5% (+1.0%)
• Green 13.5% (+0.5%)
• NZ First 5.0% (+2.0%)
• Maori 2.0% (-0.5%)
• United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
• ACT 0.5% (nc)
• Mana 0.5% (nc)
• Conservative 1.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 50
• Labour 43
• Green 17
• ACT 0
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 6
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 50 + United Future 1 = 51/121 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 43 + Greens 17 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 67/120 – six more than the minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 51.5% (-2.0%)
• Wrong 35.5% (+1.5%)
• Can’t Say 13.0% (+0.5%)

Constitutional Issues poll

Research NZ surveyed 500 NZers in March 2013. They found:

• Only 33 percent of New Zealanders had heard of the Constitutional Review. 
• The respondents were evenly split on the question of the need for a constitutional review. Some 44 percent believed there was a need and 44 percent did not.
• On the question of whether Parliament alone should decide whether to adopt a new constitution, or whether a referendum should be held, there was an overwhelming majority in favour of a referendum being held, 79 percent being in favour of a referendum. Only 13 percent believed the decision to adopt a new constitution should be decided by parliament alone.
• On the question of whether a new constitution should incorporate the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi, some 58 percent were in favour and 35 percent were not. 
• A majority of 58 percent of respondents were in favour of a four year parliamentary term. 
• There is not a great deal of support for the suggestion that New Zealand should become a republic, some 28 percent being in favour and 62 percent against.