Archive for May, 2013

Roy Morgan poll late May 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,057 of whom 1,004 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 13 May 2013 to 26 May 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 41.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (+3.0%)
  • Green 12.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 4.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-1.0%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 2.5% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 53
  • Labour 46
  • Green 16
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 53 + United Future 1 = 54/120 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 46 + Greens 16 + NZ First 0 + Mana 1 = 63/121 – two more than the minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.5% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 32.5% (+2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (-1.0%)
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Fairfax Ipsos Poll May 2013

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 of whom 828 have a party preference

Undecideds: 17.2%

Dates: 20 May 2013 to 24 May 2013

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 49.4% (+4.5%)
  • Labour 31.9% (-4.4%)
  • Green 11.2% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 3.2% (+0.4%)
  • Maori 1.6% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.2%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.3%)
  • Mana0.1% (-1.3%)
  • Conservative 1.6% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 46
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT1 + United Future 1 = 65/124 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 46 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 58/124 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 59.2% (+7.0%)
  • Wrong 40.4% (-7.4%)

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3 News Reid Research Poll May 2013

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error) of whom 849 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 12.8%

Dates: 17 to 23 May 2013

Client: 3 News

Report3NewsPoll may 2013

Party Support

  • National 47.1% (-2.3%)
  • Labour 33.1% (+2.9%)
  • Green 12.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.2% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 2.2%  (+1.2%)
  • United Future 0.4% (+0.3%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.2% (-1.6%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 41
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 57/121 – four fewer than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 40.7% (+3.1%)
  • Shearer 10.5% (+0.5%)
  • Peters 6.1% (+0.8%)
  • Norman 3.6% (+0.3%)

Leadership Performance Ratings

  • John Key – 55.0% (-0.3%) well and 30.3% (-1.9%) poor = +24.7% net well (+1.6%)
  • David Shearer – 36.2% (+3.8%) well and 36.3% (+0.5%) poor = -0.1% net well (+3.3%)

Labour/Green power policy

  • Support 54%
  • Oppose 39%

Waka Jumping

  • 77% support a law to allow parties to expel from Parliament List MPs
  • 18% opposed

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One News Colmar Brunton Poll May 2013

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,011 respondents of whom 849 had a party vote preference

UndecidedsDates: 18 to 22 May 2013

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (+6.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (-3.0%)
  • Green 9.0% (-4.0%)
  • ACT 0.3% (+0.2%)
  • Maori 1.3% (nc)
  • United Future 0.7% (-0.3%)
  • Mana 1.2% (+1.1%)
  • NZ First 3.6% (+0.6%)
  • Conservative 1.7% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 42
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 11 + Mana 2= 55/122 – seven fewer than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 42% (+3.0%)
  • David Shearer 12% (-3.0%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (+1%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 55% (+5%)
  • Same 19% (nc)
  • Worse 26% (-5%)

Food in Schools

  • 70% support the Government providing food to children at low decile schools
  • 26% against

Budget 2013

  • Personally better off 6% (+3% from 2012)
  • About the same 70% (+2%)
  • Worse off 13% (-9%)

Affordable Housing

  • 30% say Govt doing enough to keep housing affordable
  • 62% say not enough

Electricity

  • 57% support Labour/Green policy
  • 37% oppose

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Roy Morgan poll early May 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 894 of whom 849 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 29 April 2013 to 12 May 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 32.0% (+0.5%)
  • Green 12.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 1.5% (+1.0%)
  • Mana 1.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 40
  • Green 15
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + United Future 1 = 56/121 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 15 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 62/121 – one more than the minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 56.5% (+2.0%)
  • Wrong 30.5% (-3.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (+1.5%)

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Roy Morgan poll late April 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 877 of whom 833 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 15 April 2013 to 28 April 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.5% (+6.0%)
  • Labour 31.5% (-4.0%)
  • Green 11.5% (-2.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 2.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 41
  • Green 14
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + United Future 1 = 62/121 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 14 + NZ First 0 + Mana 1 = 56/120 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 54.5% (+3.0%)
  • Wrong 34.0% (-1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-1.5%)

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