3 News Northland poll

3 News reports:

The latest 3 News-Reid Research poll shows Mr Peters is ahead in the race for the electorate. He’s way ahead on 54 percent, with National candidate Mark Osborne polling only 34 percent. …

Bridges is another big issue, with National promising up to $69 million for bridges in the region.

Asked if it’s a bribe, 74 percent of voters said yes, 22 percent said no and the rest – 4 percent – said they didn’t know.

“People can see through it – they know it’s just a bribe,” says Mr Peters.

Still, a majority – 58 percent – said they want the bridges, while quite a lot – 39 percent – said they didn’t. The rest didn’t know.

Asked if they trust Winston Peters, 43 percent said yes, while a majority 48 percent said no. The rest didn’t know.

3 News Northland Poll

3 News reports:

• Winston Peters, NZF 35%
• Mark Osborne, Nat 30%
• Willow-Jean Prime, Lab, 16%
• Don’t Know/Won’r Vote 19%

Also:

• 71% say voters should have been told of Sabin investigation, 20% no
• 13% say Peters is too old, 85% no

3 News Reid Research Poll Jan 2015

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 20 to 28 January 2015

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 49.8% (+4.3%)
• Labour 29.1% (+3.5%)
• Green 9.3% (-5.1%)
• ACT 0.4% (+0.3%)
• Maori 1.3%  (+0.2%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
• Mana/Internet 0.6% (-1.4%)
• NZ First 6.9% (-0.2%)
• Conservative 2.7% (-2.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 62
• Labour 36
• Green 12
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 8
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 36 + Greens 12 = 48/122 – 14 fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 8 + Maori 2 = 10/122

On this poll National could govern alone.

Preferred PM

• John Key 44.0% (-0.1%)
• Andrew Little 9.8% (-2.5% from Cunliffe)

Andrew Little as Leader

• Better match for Key than predecessors 55%
• The same 12%
• Worse 18%
• Don’t Know 18%

Leader Ratings

• John Key – performing well 63%, performing badly 24%, net approval = +39%
• Andrew Little – performing well 45%, performing badly 17%, net approval = +28%

Whale Oil

• Key should stop texting Whale Oil 68%
• Key should continue texting 18%

3 News poll early September 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 01 to 08 September 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 46.7% (+0.3%)
• Labour 26.1% (+0.2%)
• Green 13.0% (+0.4%)
• ACT 0.3% (-0.3%)
• Maori 1.3%  (-0.7%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
• Mana/Internet 1.7% (nc)
• NZ First 5.9% (+0.1%)
• Conservative 4.7% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 59
• Labour 33
• Green 17
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana/Internet 2
• NZ First 7
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/123 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 33 + Greens 17 + Mana/Internet 2 = 52/123 – ten fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/123

On this poll, the centre parties would hold the balance of power. National could govern with NZ First or with the Maori Party (and ACT/UF). Labour could only govern with the Greens, Internet Mana, NZ First and the Maori Party.

Preferred PM

• John Key 45.3% (+0.2%)
• David Cunliffe 12.3% (+0.9%)

 

3 News Poll late late August 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 26 to 31 August 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 46.4% (+1.4%)
• Labour 25.9% (-0.5%)
• Green 12.6% (-0.9%)
• ACT 0.6% (+0.3%)
• Maori 2.0%  (+1.3%)
• United Future 0.1% (-0.3%)
• Mana/Internet 1.7% (-0.4%)
• NZ First 5.8% (-0.5%)
• Conservative 4.2% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

• National 58
• Labour 33
• Green 16
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana/Internet 2
• NZ First 7
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 33 + Greens 16 + Mana/Internet 2 = 51/121 – ten fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/121

On this poll, the centre parties would hold the balance of power. National could govern with NZ First or with the Maori Party (and ACT/UF). Labour could only govern with the Greens, Internet Mana, NZ First and the Maori Party.

Preferred PM

• John Key 45.1% (+3.7%)
• David Cunliffe 11.4% (+0.3%)

 

3 News Reid Research poll late August 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 20 to 25 August 2014 approx

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 45.0% (-2.5%)
• Labour 26.3% (-2.6%)
• Green 13.5% (+0.5%)
• ACT 0.3% (nc)
• Maori 0.7%  (-0.1%)
• United Future 0.4% (+0.2%)
• Mana/Internet 2.1% (+0.1%)
• NZ First 6.3% (+1.7%)
• Conservative 4.6% (+2.1%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 33
• Green 17
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana/Internet 3
• NZ First 8
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/123 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 33 + Greens 17 + Mana/Internet 3 = 53/123 – nine fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 8 + Maori 3 = 11/123

On this poll, the centre parties would hold the balance of power. National could govern with NZ First or with the Maori Party (and ACT/UF). Labour could only govern with the Greens, Internet Mana, NZ First and the Maori Party.

3 News Reid Research poll August 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 7 to 12 August 2014 approx

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 47.5% (-1.9%)
• Labour 29.0% (+2.3%)
• Green 13.0% (+0.6%)
• ACT 0.3% (+0.2%)
• Maori 0.8%  (-0.3%)
• United Future 0.2% (nc)
• Mana/Internet 2.0% (-0.3%)
• NZ First 4.6% (+0.3%)
• Conservative 2.5% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 61
• Labour 38
• Green 17
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana/Internet 3
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/124 – the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 17 + Mana/Internet 3 = 58/124 – five fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/124

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

• Key 44.1% (+0.3%)
• Cunliffe 9.9% (-0.1%)
• Peters 6.7% (+1.4%)

Foreign Ownership

• 77% want stricter controls on foreign ownership of land, 20% do not
• 68% against sale of Lochinver Station, 25% in favour

3 News Reid Research poll July 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: June 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 8 to 16 July 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 49.4% (-0.3%)
• Labour 26.7% (-0.6%)
• Green 12.4% (-0.3%)
• ACT 0.1% (-0.3%)
• Maori 1.1%  (-0.4%)
• United Future 0.2% (+0.2%)
• Mana/Internet 2.3% (+0.5%)
• NZ First 4.3% (+0.7%)
• Conservative 2.7% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

• National 65
• Labour 35
• Green 16
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana/Internet 3
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/124 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 35 + Greens 16 + Mana/Internet 2 = 54/124 – nine fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 0/124

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

• Key 43.8% (-2.9%)
• Cunliffe 9.5% (-0.1%)

Mana/Internet

• 59% oppose Labour working with Internet Mana to form a Government
• 29% support

3 News Reid Research poll June 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: June 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 49.7% (-0.6%)
• Labour 27.2% (-2.2%)
• Green 12.7% (+2.5%)
• ACT 0.4% (-0.2%)
• Maori 1.5%  (+0.9%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana/Internet 1.8% (+1.0%)
• NZ First 3.6% (-2.0%)
• Conservative 2.8% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 64
• Labour 35
• Green 16
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 2
• NZ First 0
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/122 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 36 + Greens 16 + Mana/Internet 2 = 54/122 – eight fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 0/124

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

• Key 46.7% (+0.4%)
• Cunliffe 9.6% (-0.2%)

3 News Reid Research poll May 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: approx 17 to 22 May 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 50.3% (+4.4%)
• Labour 29.5% (-1.7%)
• Green 10.2% (-1.0%)
• ACT 0.5% (-0.6%)
• Maori 0.6%  (-0.9%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
• Mana 0.2% (-0.9%)
• NZ First 5.6% (+0.7%)
• Conservative 2.3% (+0.4%)
• Internet 0.6% (+0.6%)

Projected Seats

• National 62
• Labour 36
• Green 13
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 7
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/124 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 36 + Greens 13 + Mana 1 + Internet 0 = 50/124 – thirteen fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/124

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

• Key 46.3% (+3.7%)
• Cunliffe 9.8% (+0.8%)
• Peters
• Norman

2014 Budget

• 73% like Budget 24% dislike
• 67% of Labour voters like it

Immigration

• 62% support tighter restrictions on immigration
• 35% oppose