Archive for February, 2010

Curia poll on Auckland Mayoralty

Curia was commissioned to do a poll of 1,200 Auckland residents on the upcoming mayoral elections, on behalf of Hon John Banks. The poll was done over five days last week.

The client, has given permission for the topline results to be released publicly.

There are some differences in methodology from other recent polls on the Mayoralty. These are:

  1. The Curia poll sample and responses reflect turnout for the 2007 local govt elections. In other words, the proportion of responses from one particular territorial local authority is approximately the same proportion of votes cast in that TLA, as a share of the entire region.
  2. The Curia poll has a large sample of 1,200 responses, which has a margin of error of only 2.9%. A recent other poll had a 4.6% margin of error.
  3. The Curia poll asks respondents who would be their preference for Mayor, not who they think will be a better Mayor, as asked in a recent other poll.
  4. The Curia poll was taken as a snapshot over five days, the other recent poll was taken over seventeen days.
  5. The Curia poll was a short stand alone poll, not part of a longer omnibus poll.
  6. Two questions were asked – first an unprompted question on which Aucklander they would like to be Mayor, and then a second question asking their preference if it is a choice between Auckland Mayor John Banks and Manukau Mayor Len Brown.

The first question was:

If an election was held today for Mayor of the new Auckland Supercity, which Aucklander would you most like to be Mayor?

  1. John Banks 42.5%
  2. Len Brown 38.1%
  3. Bob Harvey 7.2%
  4. Stephen Tindall 4.8%
  5. Others 3.2%
  6. Paul Holmes 1.4%
  7. Mike Lee 1.3%
  8. Michael Barnett 1.3%
  9. Andrew Williams 0.4%

These are percentages of those who had an opinion. 34.1% of respondents could not or would not name a preferred Mayor unprompted.

The second question was:

If the choice for Mayor of the Auckland Super City was between Manukau City Mayor Len Brown and Auckland City Mayor John Banks, which one would be your preference?

John Banks 50.0%

Len Brown 50.0%

In a two way race, an identical number of respondents supported both John Banks and Len Brown.  14.8% of respondents were undecided, or would not express a preference.

The change since September

A poll was also done in September 2009 of 1,200 respondents. Changes between the two polls are:

  • Banks Unprompted – from 39.0% in Sep 09 to 42.5% in Feb 10
  • Brown Unprompted – from 44.5% in Sep 09 to 38.1% in Feb 10
  • Banks Prompted – from 45.1% in Sep 09 to 50.0% in Feb 10
  • Brown Unprompted – from 54.9% in Sep 09 to 50.0% in Feb 10

In my opinion this reflects the higher profile John Banks has had in the first two months of 2010, and lower profile of Len Brown.

John Banks’ press secretary, Scott Campbell, can be contacted on 021 426 342 or by e-mail if comment is desired.

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NZ Herald Digipoll February 2010

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 600 respondents (4.1% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 29 January to 10 February 2010

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 56.0% (-1.3%)
  • Labour 33.6% (+1.2%)
  • Green 4.6% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.7% (+0.8%)
  • Maori 2.8% (nc)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.8% (-0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.2% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 72
  • Labour 43
  • Green 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 72 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 74/123 – 12 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 43 + Progressive 1 + Greens 0 = 44/123 -18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 58.0% (+2.7%)
  • Clark 7.0% (-3.6%)
  • Goff 6.8% (+0.6%)

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Herald Digipoll on NZ Flag

A Herald Digipoll of 600 respondents from 29 Jan to 10 Feb 2010 found:

  • 52% back a change in the NZ flag, while 44% do not
  • If a new flag is designed the preferred national symbol on it is silver fern 53%, kiwi 18%, koru 13%, southern cross 12.5%, tiki 1%
  • 54% say the current flag is distinctive enough
  • 60% want the union jack kept on the flag

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Roy Morgan Poll late January 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,758 (2.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 18 January to 31 January 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 32.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 6.0% (-2.0%)
  • ACT 2.0% (nc)
  • Maori 3.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 3.5% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 40
  • Green 17
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 68/121 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Progressive 1 + Greens 7 = 48/121 – 13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 71.0% (+2.5%)
  • Wrong 20.0% (-1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 9.0% (-1.5%)

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Te Karere Digipoll January 2010

Digipoll did a poll of 1,002 Maori voters between the 6th and 27th of January 2010.  685 (68%) were from the Maori Roll and 317 (32%) from the General Roll.

For each result, I give the overall result, then the response for those on the Maori roll and then General Roll.

Party Vote

  • Maori Party 38.3%, 51.2%, 11.30%
  • Labour 27.9%, 31.6%, 51.0%
  • National 16.9%, 11.4%, 28.4%l
  • Greens 3.3%, 3.3%, 3.4%

Preferred PM

  • Key 30.5%, 27.9%, 36.0%
  • Sharples 11.8%, 14.9%, 5.2%
  • Peters 7.0%, 6.0%, 9.2%
  • Turia 4.9%, 6.8%, 1.5%
  • Goff 4.6%, 3.9%, 6.5%
  • Clark 3.8%, 3.7%, 4.0%
  • Harawira 3.0%, 4.5%, 0.3%
  • Jones 2.2%, 2.2%, 2.5%

Does John Key/Phil Goff provide good leadership on Maori issues?

  • John Key Yes – 46.7%, 49.5%, 42.5%
  • John Key No – 37.1%, 36.0%, 40.0%
  • Phil Goff Yes – 18.2%, 17.1%, 19.1%
  • Phil Goff No – 58.9%, 61.9%, 55.1%

Is Phil Goff best person to lead Labour (asked of Labour voters only)?

  • Yes 36.0%, 34.4%, 38.3%
  • No 48.1%, 49.0%, 37.7%

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Roy Morgan Poll early January 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,758 (2.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 04 January to 17 January 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+2.5%)
  • Green 8.0% (-1.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-1.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 37
  • Green 10
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 69/122 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 48/122 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 68.5% (+6.0%)
  • Wrong 21.0% (-4.0%)
  • Can’t Say 10.5% (-2.0%)

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