Roy Morgan Poll late August 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 845, of whom 803 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5%

Dates: 15 August to 28 August 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 29.5% (-2.5%)
  • Green 9.0% (+1.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 3.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 37
  • Green 11
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/122 – 7 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 49/122 – 13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 59.0% (+2.0%)
  • Wrong 27.5% (-1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-0.5%)
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