Archive for July, 2012

Scott Guy verdict poll

Stuff reports:

The survey of 750 New Zealanders aged 18 years and over, conducted in the days immediately after the verdict, shows almost half of the respondents believed Macdonald was guilty.

When asked “From what you have seen, heard or feel about the case, do you think it is more likely Ewen Macdonald is guilty or not guilty?” 48 per cent said guilty.

A further 20 per cent said not guilty, 28 per cent said they were unsure, and 4 per cent of people refused to answer. …

The survey also showed support for major changes to the criminal justice system similar to those advocated for by Sensible Sentencing Trust spokesman Garth McVicar this week.

This included getting rid of a defendant’s right to silence, which would mean they would be forced to give evidence at the trial. Of those surveyed, 61 per cent thought this was a good idea. …

Three-quarters of people thought juries should be able to return a verdict of “not-proven” alongside “not guilty” and “guilty,” as used in the Scottish legal system. A “not-proven” verdict is essentially an acquittal, but gives juries an option where they feel that the charges have not been proved but they equally cannot say the accused is “not guilty”.

d

Leave a Comment

US Presidential Election 2012 poll

Stuff reports:

It would be much easier for Barack Obama to be re-elected in New Zealand than the United States.

An overwhelming majority of New Zealanders would vote for Barack Obama if they had the chance. Given a hypothetical vote, 66 per cent would favour Obama and a mere 7 per cent his Republican rival, Mitt Romney.

New Zealanders have always favoured Democrats in UMR polling but never by such a big margin.

We like Obama a lot more, too. He has a handsome 82 per cent favourable/11 per cent unfavourable rating from New Zealanders. Fewer have an opinion on Romney, but it is breaking negative at 14 per cent favourable/31 per cent unfavourable.

New Zealanders expect Obama to prevail as well. Seventy per cent expect an Obama victory and 10 per cent a Romney victory.

d

Leave a Comment

Mining poll

The Herald reports:

The poll, conducted late last month, showed 27 per cent of those questioned supported the Government’s aim to increase oil gas and mineral exploration and almost a further 40 per cent cautiously supported it.

Thirty per cent of the 750 respondents were strongly opposed or leaned towards opposing increased exploration.

 

Leave a Comment

Alcohol polls

The Herald reports:

A Herald DigiPoll found that 56.5 percent of New Zealanders opposed a minimum price for alcohol, while 40.6 percent supported it.

Also the Herald reports:

Asked which purchase age they preferred in Parliament’s review of liquor laws, 54.4 per cent of respondents said 20 years old, and 25 per cent said 20 for off-licensed stores.

Just 19.4 per cent wanted the age kept at 18 for both on-licences (bars and restaurants) and off-licences (supermarkets and bottle stores).

 

Leave a Comment

NZ Herald Digipoll June 2012

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 8.4%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 687 had a party vote preference

Dates: 18 to 25 June 2012

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 47.5% (-0.6%)
  • Labour 34.0% (-0.8%)
  • Green 9.1% (-0.1%)
  • NZ First 4.4% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 1.3% (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.2%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 1.7% (+1.6%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 43
  • Green 11
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/123 – 1 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 43 + Greens 11 + Mana 2 = 56/126 -5 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 63.5% (-0.4%)
  • Shearer 14.2% (+1.1%)
  • Peters 7.3% (+0.9%)
Country Direction

  • Right 49.7% (+0.5%)

Comments (1)

League Tables poll

The Herald reports:

Almost 59 per cent of DigiPoll respondents approve of publishing of the material, either by the Ministry of Education or the media or both. But 36.4 per cent believe comparisons between schools are unfair.

The poll of 750 people was conducted between June 18 and 28 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 per cent.

Leave a Comment

Roy Morgan poll late June 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,057, of whom 1,020 have a party preference

Undecideds: 3.5%

Dates: 08 June 2012 to 24 June 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 47.5% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 32.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 12.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 4.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 41
  • Green 15
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 57/121 – four less than the minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 52.0% (+4.0%)
  • Wrong 34.5% (-3.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-1.0%)

Leave a Comment