Roy Morgan poll late February 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,052 of whom 1,010 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 11 February 2013 to 24 February 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Scoop

Party Support

• National 47.5% (+3.5%)
• Labour 30.5% (-4%)
• Green 12.5% (-1%)
• NZ First 3.0% (-1%)
• Maori 2.5% (+2.0%)
• United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
• ACT 0.5% (nc)
• Mana 0.5% (nc)
• Conservative 2.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 60
• Labour 39
• Green 16
• ACT 0
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 60 + United Future 1 = 61/120 – the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 16 + Mana 1 = 56/120 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 54.0% (-1.0%)
• Wrong 32.5% (+2.0%)
• Can’t Say 13.5% (-1.0%)

Curia Moral Issues poll

A Curia poll of 1,000 adults for Family First was done in February 2011 on a variety of moral issues. The full report is here and here. Major findings include:

• 47% say the definition of marriage should change to allow same-sex couples to marry and 43% say civil unions are sufficient for same-sex couples
• 49% say any changes to the Marriage Act should be subject to a binding referendum
• 80% say marriage celebrants should not be forced to perform same-sex weddings
• 73% say churches should not be forced to allow same-sex weddings in their buildings
• 55% say faith-based schools should not have to teach that same-sex marriage is equal to traditional marriage
• 53% say teachers in state schools should not have to each that same-sex marriage is equal to traditional marriage
• 52% say a family with a mum and dad should have priority for adoptions
• 73% say Councils should be able to restrict the locations of brothels
• 87% say Councils should be able to restrict the number of pokie machines in areas thought to be particularly harmful
• 72% says public billboards should be g-rated

3 News Reid Research Poll February 2013

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error) of whom 807 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 16.2%

Dates: 12 to 21 February 2013

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 51.4% (+4.4%)
• Labour 32.6% (-2.0%)
• Green 10.8% (-2.2%)
• ACT 0.1% (-0.1%)
• Maori 0.4%  (-0.8%)
• United Future 0.3% (+0.2%)
• Mana 0.0% (-0.1%)
• NZ First 3.4% (+1.4%)
• Conservative 0.9% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 64
• Labour 41
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/125 – three more than minimum 63 needed to govern
• CL – Labour 41 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 56/125 – seven fewer than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 41.0% (+3.6%)
• Shearer 10.0% (-2.6%)
• Peters 4.7% (-1.1%)
• Norman 1.8% (-0.4%)

Leadership Performance Ratings

• John Key – 56.8% (+4.9%) well and 25.8% (-3.6%) poor = +31.0% net well (+8.5%)
• David Shearer – 34.9% (+3.3%) well and 32.0% (-2.4%) poor = 2.9% net well (+5.7%)

Fairfax Ipsos poll February 2013

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 of whom 828 have a party preference

Undecideds: 17.2%

Dates: 10 February 2013 to 14 February 2013

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 44.9% (-1.3%)
• Labour 36.3% (+1.9%)
• Green 10.7% (+0.2%)
• NZ First 2.8% (-1.0%)
• Maori 1.3% (-0.1%)
• United Future 0.1% (-0.1%)
• ACT 0.4% (+0.4%)
• Mana 1.4% (+0.8%)
• Conservative 1.6% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 46
• Green 13
• ACT 0
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 2
• NZ First 0
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + United Future 1 = 58/122 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 46 + Greens 13 + Mana 2 = 61/122 – one fewerthan the minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Should Hekia Parata be removed from Education

• Yes 60%
• No 22%
• Don’t Know 18%

Was David Bain wrongfully imprisoned?

• Yes 40%
• No 28%
• Unsure 32%

Should David Bain get compensation?

• Yes 60%

Overall on Bain

• wrongfully jailed and deserves compensation 36%
• not wrongfully imprisoned and deserves nothing 22%
• mixed views about imprisonment and compensation 10%
• unsure 33%

One News Colmar Brunton Poll February 2013

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,026 respondents of whom 875 have a voting preference

Undecideds: 10%

Dates: 9 to 13 February 2013

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 49.0% (+5.0%)
• Labour 33.0% (-2.0%)
• Green 11.0% (-1.0%)
• ACT 0.1% (-0.5%)
• Maori 1.0% (+0.3%)
• United Future 0.2% (-0.3%)
• Mana 0.5% (+0.2%)
• NZ First 3.9% (+0.3%)
• Conservative 0.9% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

• National 62
• Labour 42
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Conservative 0
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/124 – 1 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 42 + Greens 14 + Mana 1= 57/121 -6 fewer than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• John Key 44% (+5.0%)
• David Shearer 15% (nc)
• Winston Peters 5% (-1%)

Decision to keep Hekia Parata as Minister of Education

•  21% right decision
• 59% wrong decision
• 20% unsure

Economic Outlook

• Better 48% (+7%)
• Same 22% (-2%)
• Worse 30% (-4%)

Partial Asset Sales

• Support 30% (+6%)
• Oppose 64% (-5%)
• Unsure 6% (-1%)

Four Year Term

• Support 56%
• Oppose 40%
• Unsure 5%

Make unemployed apply for jobs in Christchurch

• Yes 39%
• No 53%
• Unsure 7%

Roy Morgan poll early February 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,008 of whom 973 have a party preference

Undecideds: 3.5%

Dates: 27 January 2013 to 10 February 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 44.0% (-2%)
• Labour 34.5% (+3%)
• Green 13.5% (nc)
• NZ First 4.0% (+1.5%)
• Maori 0.5% (-1.0%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.5% (nc)
• Mana 0.5% (nc)
• Conservative 2.0% (+1.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 44
• Green 17
• ACT 0
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + United Future 1 = 58/123 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 44 + Greens 17 + Mana 1 = 62/123 – one more than the minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 55.0% (-2.0%)
• Wrong 30.5% (nc)
• Can’t Say 14.5% (+2.0%)

Te Karere DigiPoll January 2013

Te Karere Digipoll have done a poll of 1,000 Maori votes between 7 and 30 January 2013

The changes are from the last poll in January 2012, or for electorate vote from the November 2011 election.

Party Vote – All Maori voters

• Labour 33.5% (-0.5%)
• Maori 27.5% (+2.5%)
• National 9.1% (+0.7%)
• Greens 7.8% (-0.2%)
• NZ First 6.2% (-0.4%)
• Mana 5.7% (-4.3%)
• Don’t Know 9.9% (+2.7%)

Party Vote – Maori voters on Maori roll

• Labour 34.1% (+3.5%)
• Maori 33.0% (+2.7%)
• National 4.8% (-1.7%)
• Greens 7.4% (-0.5%)
• NZ First 5.8% (-0.5%)
• Mana 7.6% (-5.3%)
• Don’t Know 7.0% (+0.6%)

Party Vote – Maori voters on General Roll

• Labour 32.4% (-13.1%)
• Maori 15.4% (+7.7%)
• National 18.2% (+3.7%)
• Greens 8.5% (+0.3%)
• NZ First 6.9% (-4.0%)
• Mana 1.6% (+0.2%)
• Don’t Know 16.0% (+8.8%)

Electorate Vote – Maori voters on Maori Roll

• Maori 36.3% (+4.8%)
• Labour 31.8% (-8.9%)
• Mana 8.9% (-12.2%)
• National 5.0% (+5.0%)
• NZ First 3.9% (+3.9%)
• Green 3.8% (-1.1%)

Labour Leader Name Awareness amongst those voting Labour

• David Shearer 34.7%
• Others 2.4%
• Don’t Know 62.9%

Agreement that David Shearer provides good leadership on Maori issues amongst those voting Labour and know he is leader.

• Agree 28.0%
• Disagree 40.7%
• Don’t Know 31.4%

Government Direction

• Right 16%
• Wrong 73%

Agreement that John Key provides good leadership on Maori issues

• Agree 9%
• Disagree 85%

Maori Party voters on do you support or oppose the Maori Party working in a formal relationship with the National Party?

• Support 56%
• Opoose 37%