Archive for September, 2009

Roy Morgan Poll early September 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 854 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 31 August to 13 September 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 51.5% (-5.0%)
  • Labour 33.5% (+4.0%)
  • Green 7.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.5% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 41
  • Green 9
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 67/123 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 51/123 -11 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 67.5% (+2.0%)
  • Wrong 24.5% (+2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 8.0% (-4.5%)
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Auckland Council Services

UMR did a poll of 240 Aucklanders from 13 to 17 August 2009 on the role of the new Auckland Council. Findings:

  • 26% want Council to do core services only, while 67% want other services provided.
  • Strong opposition to asset sales, specifically 78% against transport facilities such as the port and airport being sold, 82% against parks, libraries, rec facilities being sold, 85% against water supplies being sold

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Global Economic Crisis

UMR polled 750 NZers from 27 to 30 August 2009.

Findings:

  • 36% think the worst of the recession is over -more so amongst men and higher income earners
  • Concern about the crisis for the NZ economy has dropped from 72% in June to 61% in August
  • Concern about the crisis for people personally has dropped from 54% in June to 48% in August

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Morality of New Zealanders

UMR polled 750 NZers from 30 July to 2 August 2009. Findings:

  • The most morally acceptable activities were divorce (81%), sex before marriage (77%), birth outside marriage (71%)
  • Homosexual relations deemed acceptable by 61%, euthanasia by 55%, abortion by 55% and gambling by 52%
  • Least acceptable are human cloning (7%), polygamy (11%), affairs (13%), suicide (20%), animal cloning (27%) and the death penalty (41%)

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MMP

ResearchNZ did a poll of 500 respondents from 8 to 10 September. Findings:

  • 45% want to retain MMP, 42% do not
  • 58% of under 25s want to retain MMP but only around 40% of over 55s

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Roy Morgan late August 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 860 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 17 August to 30 August 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 56.5% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 29.5% (-3.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 1.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 36
  • Green 10
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/123 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 47/123 -15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 65.5% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 22.0% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (+0.5%)

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