Archive for August, 2013

Labour leadership poll

A One News Colmar Brunton poll of around 500 respondents found:

  • 33% believe a change of leader will increase support for Labour
  • 45% say it will make no difference
  • 7% say it will decrease support

Given a list of five Labour MPs, the support for each was:

  • David Cunliffe 29%
  • Jacinda Ardern 15%
  • Shane Jones 11%
  • Grant Robertson 10%
  • Andrew Little 9%
  • Don’t Know 22%

Leave a Comment

Fairfax Ipsos poll August 2013

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,011 of whom xxx have a party preference

Undecideds: 17.2%

Dates: 10 August 2013 to 15 August 2013

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 48.3% (-1.1%)
  • Labour 31.6% (-0.3%)
  • Green 12.3% (+1.1%)
  • NZ First 2.8% (-0.4%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • ACT 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.5% (+0.4%)
  • Conservative 1.4% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 39
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT1 + United Future 1 = 62/120 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 55/120 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/120

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0% (-1.2%)
  • Wrong 42.0% (+1.6%)

GCSB

  • 75% at least partly worried about GCSB law
  • 30% very concerned
  • 54% trust Government to protect their privacy while maintaining national security
  • $0% do not
 100% pure
  • 21% say we are 80% to 100% pure
  • Average pure rating is 65%

House Affordability

  • 21% can afford an $88,000 deposit (20% of average house), 31% with family help, 48% can not
  • 81% say having Govt offer low deposit loans to first time home buyers will be effective in tackling rising house prices
  • 73% say having Govt build more affordable homes will be effective
  • 68% say releasing more land for housing will be effective
  • 49% say stopping non residents purchasing will be effective
  • 37% say introducing a CGT will be effective
  • 29% say forcing buyers to have bigger loan deposits will be effective

Leader Trust

  • Fully believe John Key 24% yes and 59% no
  • Fully believe David Shearer 33% yes and 43% no

Leave a Comment

Death Penalty poll

The Nation reports:

More than a third of New Zealanders would support the reintroduction of the death penalty.

In a Curia poll for TV3’s “The Nation” of 624 respondents, 38 per cent were in favour of the death penalty, 55 per cent were against it, and 7 per cent were undecided.

35 per cent of Labour voters favoured the death penalty and National voters polled at 44 per cent. Least likely to be in favour were Green Party voters at 19 per cent, but the most in favour of capital punishment were New Zealand First voters at 84 per cent.

 

Leave a Comment

Cannabis poll

UMR polled 1,000 NZers on cannabis and synthetic cannabis:

  • SHOULD BE LEGAL: 14% for marijuana, 12% for synthetic cannabis
  • DECRIMINALISE: 46% for marijuana, 38% for synthetic cannabis
  • SHOULD BE ILLEGAL: 35% of marijuana, 47% for synthetic cannabis

Comments (1)

Roy Morgan poll early August 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 919 of whom 878 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.5%

Dates: 29 July 2013 to 11 August 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (-7.0%)
  • Labour 34.0% (+5.0%)
  • Green 14.0% (+4.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 42
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/121 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 18 + Mana 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/121

On this poll there would be a centre-left government.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 30.0% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (+0.5%)

Leave a Comment

Auckland Mayoral poll

Radio Live report:

The latest UMR research poll indicates a strong majority for Len Brown in the upcoming Mayoral election – the current Mayor sitting on a cool 47 percent of the total vote, 66 percent of the decided vote.

New challenger John Palino is in second place, with 14 percent of the total vote and 20 percent of the decided vote. MANA Party secretary John Minto is third, with five and seven percent respectively.

 

Leave a Comment

Wellington Mayoralty poll

NewstalkZB reports:

A Newstalk ZB Media Research poll released today shows at this stage it’s a fight between incumbent mayor Celia Wade-Brown and councillor John Morrison for the Wellington mayoralty.

Wade-Brown has 31.67% of popular support to continue as mayor, while Morrison is close behind with 25.22%.  Jack Yan came in a distant third with 4.15%. 

A significant 28.38% of the electorate remains undecided.

 

Leave a Comment

GCSB powers poll

Research NZ asked 500 New Zealanders:

In the past the Government Communication Security Bureau, the GCSB, has not been permitted to monitor New Zealand residents. A law comes into force shortly that will allow the GCSB to monitor New Zealand residents as well as non-residents.

Are you in favour or not in favour of the GCSB being allowed to do this?

The results were:

  • 36% in favour
  • 52% not in favour

Leave a Comment

Trust in MPs

ResearchNZ asked 1,000 NZers to rate on a 0 to 10 scale if they trusted certain professions. The percentages who gave an eight or higher was:

  • Ambulance Service 93%
  • Fire Service 91%
  • Doctors and nurses 81%
  • Police 70%
  • Teachers 61%
  • Lawyers 29%
  • People who work for Govt 22%
  • Local Councillors 14%
  • Journalists 11%
  • MPs 9%

Leave a Comment

One News Colmar Brunton poll July 2013

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,006 respondents of whom 862 had a voting preference

UndecidedsDates: estimate 27 July to 31 July 2013

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (nc)
  • Green 14.0% (+5.0%)
  • ACT 0.7% (+0.4%)
  • Maori 1.6% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.2%(-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.3% (-0.3%)
  • Conservative 0.6% (-1.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 42
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 17 + Mana 1= 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/122

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 41% (-1.0%)
  • David Shearer 13% (+1.0%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (nc)

Next National Leader

  • Bill English 23%
  • Steven Joyce 16%
  • Judith Collins 11%
  • Someone else 5%
  • Don’t know 45%

Economic Outlook

  • Better 52% (-3%)
  • Worse 28% (+2%)
  • Same 20% (+1%)

Meridian share float

  • 14% likely to buy shares
  • 86% unlikely

GST on international purchases

  • 36% support GST on online purchases of under $400
  • 59% oppose

Foreign property buyers

  • 62% support foreigners being unable to buy
  • 32% opposed

 

Comments (1)

Older Posts »