3 News Reid Research Poll March 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: approx 18 to 26 March 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 45.9% (+1.4%)
• Labour 31.2% (-2.3%)
• Green 11.2% (-1.2%)
• ACT 1.1% (+1.1%)
• Maori 1.5%  (+0.5%)
• United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
• Mana 1.1% (+0.8%)
• NZ First 4.9% (-0.8%)
• Conservative 1.9% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 60
• Labour 41
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 41 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 57/122 – five fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

• Key 42.6% (+3.6%)
• Cunliffe 9.0% (-1.8%)
• Peters
• Norman

David Cunliffe

• were his actions with his secret trust worthy of a PM – No 65%, yes 28%

Leader Ratings

• John Key – 65% (+7%) say performing well, 26% (-3%) poorly = +39% (+10%) net approval
• David Cunliffe – 30% (-9%) say performing well, 46% (+16%) poorly = -10% (+25%) net approval

One News Colmar Brunton poll March 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,003 respondents, of whom 767 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 18%

Dates: 22 to 26 March 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 47.0% (-4.0%)
• Labour 31.0% (-3.0%)
• Green 11.0% (+3.0%)
• ACT 0.3% (-0.1%)
• Maori 0.7% (-0.2%)
• United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
• Mana 0.0% (nc)
• NZ First 7.0% (+3.9%)
• Conservative 2.3% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

• National 58
• Labour 39
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 8
• Conservative 0
• Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/125 – three fewer than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 + Mana 1= 54/125 – nine fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 8 = 11/125

On this poll the Maori Party could allow a centre-right Government to be formed or both the Maori Party and NZ First could support a centre-left Government.

Preferred PM

• John Key 42% (-1.0%)
• David Cunliffe 8% (-2.0%)
• Winston Peters 4% (nc)

Herald Digipoll March 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 11.4%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 665 had a party preference

Dates: 06 to 16 March 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

• National 50.8% (+4.0%)
• Labour 29.5% (-5.9%)
• Green 13.1% (+2.3%)
• NZ First 3.6% (-0.3%)
• Maori 0.2% (-1.1%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.8% (+0.8%)
• Mana 0.1% (-0.8%)
• Conservative 1.3% (+0.6%)

Projected Seats

• National 65
• Labour 37
• Green 17
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• ACT 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/125 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Greens 17 + Mana 1 = 55/123 -eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

• Key 66.5% (+4.6%)
• Cunliffe 11.1% (-5.4%)
• Peters 6.5% (-0.8%)
• Norman 4.5% (+1.1%)

Baby Bonus of $60 a week

• Support 47%
• Oppose 49%

Kim Dotcom

• Should be extradited if court rules eligible 47%
• Should not be extradited 42%

NZ Flag

• Support new flag 41%
• Keep current flag 53%

Countdown

• 51% believe Shane Jones allegations
• 20% believe Countdown

Len Brown

• Would vote for Brown in 2016 – 23%
• Would not vote for Brown – 58%
• Brown can still be an effective advocate – 52%
• Brown should have resigned 50% (+12%)
• Brown should not have resigned 38% (-13%)

Income Inequality

• 44% say gap between rich and poor has got a lot bigger
• 30% say a little bigger
• 22% say gap the same
• 3% say gap has closed
• 33% say they are better off under National
• 30% the same
• 30% worse off

Roy Morgan poll mid March 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 873 of whom 838 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 03 March to 16 March 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 45.5% (-3.0%)
• Labour 31.5% (+1.0%)
• Green 14.0% (+3.5%)
• NZ First 3.5% (-1.0%)
• Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
• United Future 0.5% (nc)
• ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
• Mana 0.0% (-0.5%)
• Conservative 1.5% (-1.0%)
• Internet 0.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 40
• Green 18
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 40 + Greens 18 + Mana 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/121

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

• Right 61.0% (-4.0%)
• Wrong 25.5% (+2.0)
• Can’t Say 13.5% (+2.0%)

Roy Morgan poll early March 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 977 of whom 943 have a party preference

Undecideds: 3.5%

Dates: 17 February to 02 March 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 48.5% (+0.5%)
• Labour 30.5% (+0.5%)
• Green 10.5% (-1.5%)
• NZ First 4.5% (-1.0%)
• Maori 1.5% (+1.0%)
• United Future 0.5% (nc)
• ACT 1.0% (nc)
• Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
• Conservative 2.5% (+1.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 62
• Labour 39
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/121 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 54/121 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/121

On this poll a centre-right Government would be formed.

Country Direction

• Right 65.0% (+1.5%)
• Wrong 23.5% (nc)
• Can’t Say 11.5% (-1.5%)

New Zealand Flag

Research NZ found:

• 22% agree NZ should adopt a new national flag, 37% disagree
• 41% of those who back a change, support the black flag with silver fern design, with 57% opposed

Religion in schools

UMR found:

• 27% agree New Zealand schools should include classes on Christianity taught from a Christian perspective, with 47% disagreeing
• 74% agree New Zealand schools should teach about the differences between religions but not about which religion is right with 12% disagreeing
• 68% agree Evolution should be taught as the view of how life developed which is generally accepted by scientists with 14% disagreeing
• 38% agree Evolution, creationism and intelligent design should be taught as equally valid explanations for how life developed with 38% disagreeing