Roy Morgan poll late September 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 938, of whom 882 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6%

Dates: 28 August to 11 September 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 57.0% (+5.0%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-3.5%)
  • Green 7.5% (-1.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 3.5% (nc)
  • Mana 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 71
  • Labour 33
  • Green 9
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 71 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 74/121 – 13 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 9 + Mana 1 = 43/122 – 18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 60.0% (+1.0%)
  • Wrong 28.0% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (-1.5%)
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