NZ Herald DigiPoll July 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 770 respondents, 660 decided respondents (3.6% and 3.9% maximum margins of error)

Dates: Not stated but normally over three weeks, and probably up until 26 July 2008

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald main story and breakdowns here and graphs here.

Party Support

• National 55.4% (+0.5%)
• Labour 30.8% (-1.6%)
• Progressive – 0.0% (nc)
• NZ First 4.1% (+0.8%)
• Green 5.5% (-0.4%)
• United Future 0.9% (+0.8%)
• Maori – 2.6% (+0.8%)
• ACT – 0.2% (-0.6%)

14.3% of respondents were undecided

Projected Seats

• National 70
• Labour 39
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Green 7
• United Future 1
• Maori 6
• ACT 1
• Total 125

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

• Key 47.1% (+1.1%)
• Clark 44.0% (-1.0%)
• Peters 4.9%

Most influential issue

• Economy 22.9%
• Law & Order 17.2%
• Tax Cuts 16.5%
• Hospital Waiting Lists 13.8%

Wind Farms and nuclear energy

TV3 reports on a Research NZ poll on wind farms and other power options.

84% said they have no problems with how wind farms look, and 70% said they would not object to being able to see a wind farm from their home.

On the issue of nuclear power as a source of energy, 54% are oppossed but a significant 37% say it should be considered. 49% of men supported a nuclear power option compared to 26% of women.

Armed Police

A Research New Zealand Poll on whether the Police should be armed, has been reported in the NZ Herald.

The poll of 500 people has found that 54% of respondents approve of the Police routinely carrying firearms – up from 33% in 2003.

They also found 44% of respondents are more worried about their personal safety than a year ago.

The poll was taken from 25 June to 9 July 2008.

Rounding Errors

Dean Knight has a post on how rounding party vote figures to 0 or 1 decimal point can lead to the wrong allocation of seats. He queried the Colmar Brunton seat projections as he (and I) got different putting their results into the Electoral Commission calculator.

They use the raw numbers (with no rounding) in their calculations, so their projections are accurate.

It poses a small issue for me. I always prefer to calculate the seat projections myself using the official calculator, rather than trust what the media report. However as I only get the rounded poll results, then the projections may differ by a seat for some parties.

In future I will use the Colmar Brunton projections, as they have shown to Dean they definitely do it the right way, but will still calculate my own for other polls.

One reason I do my own calculations is I don’t assume the electorate seats will be the same as in 2005, but instead go off any public electorate polls to feed into assumptions on electorate seats won. Hence am projectiing Maori Party wins six seats, not four seats as Marae/Digipoll has shown them ahead in six.

Rail Purchase

The One News/Colmar Brunton Poll reported opinion on the buy back of rail.

68% of respondents supported the purchase with 24% against and 8% not sure. Even 56% of National voters support the buy back.

One News/Colmar Brunton Poll July 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: Not stated but probably up until 18 July 2008

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

• National 52.0% (-3.0%)
• Labour 35.0% (+6.0%)
• Progressive 0.0% (nc)
• NZ First 2.4% (-0.8%)
• Green 6.0% (-1.0%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.4%)
• Maori 1.7% (-2.7%)
• ACT 1.2% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

• National 65
• Labour 44
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Green 8
• United Future 1
• Maori 6
• ACT 1
• Total 126

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

• Key 38.0% (nc)
• Clark 31.0% (+3.0%)
• Peters 4.0% (nc)

TV3/TNS Poll July 2008

Polling Company: TNS

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Not stated but usually 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: Not stated but probably up until 18 July 2008

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

• National 48.0% (-2.0%)
• Labour 35.0% (nc)
• Progressive 0.0% (nc)
• NZ First 4.0% (+0.1%)
• Green 7.0% (+1.2%)
• United Future 0.3% (+0.1%)
• Maori 2.0% (nc)
• ACT 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 62
• Labour 45
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Green 9
• United Future 1
• Maori 6
• ACT 1
• Total 125

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

• Key 32.0% (-3.0%)
• Clark 28.0% (-1.0%)
• Peters 6.0% (nc)
• English 3.0% (+2.0%)

Personal Attacks

69% of respondents thought Helen Clark’s attack on John Key being on holiday was a personal attack, 16% said it was based on policy and 15% did not know.

Marae Ikaroa-Rawhiti Poll July 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Ikaroa-Rawhiti voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: Around two and a half weeks to 14 July 2008

Client: Marae

Report: None yet

Candidate Support

The poll was reported in two parts. Up until 8 July 2008 Derek Fox (Maori Party) had 50.5% to 41.9% for Parekura Horomia (Labour).

On 8 July stories of domestic violence in the past of Derek Fox were published. Responses after that date were 47.1% for Fox and 45.6% for Horomia.

Note that if half the sample were done before and after 8 July, the margin of error for each part is 7.1%.

The last Marae-Digipoll in 2007 in Ikaroa-Rawhiti had the Maori Party candidate (not selected at that stage) at 54% and the Labour Party candidate (Horomia) at 31%, so the race has tightened since then regardless of the domestic violence revelations.

Fairfax July 2008 Poll

Polling Company: Nielsen

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,049 total voters, 913 decided voters (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 9 to 15 July 2008

Client: Fairfax Media

Report: Stuff and Stuff

Party Support

• National 51.0% (-3.0%)
• Labour 35.0% (+5.0%)
• Progressive 0.0% (nc)
• NZ First 4.0% (+1.0%)
• Green 5.0% (-2.0%)
• United Future 0.0% (-1.0%)
• Maori 2.0% (nc)
• ACT 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 65
• Labour 45
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Green 6
• United Future 1
• Maori 6
• ACT 1
• Total 125

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

• Key 39.0% (-4.0%)
• Clark 32.0 (+2.0%)
• Peters 3.0% (+1.0%)

Leader Strengths

• Better in a crisis – Clark 53%, Key 34%
• Better on world stage – Clark higher
• Better on law and order – Key 49%, Clark 37%
• More capabale at managing economy – Key 49%, Clark 38%
• Strong – Clark 70%, Key 41%
• Honest – both at 40%

Roy Morgan early July 2008 Poll

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 871 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 30 June to 13 July 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 52.0% (+0.5%)
• Labour 30.5% (+0.5%)
• Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
• NZ First 6.5% (+2.5%)
• Green 7.5% (-0.5%)
• United Future 1.0% (nc)
• Maori 1.0% (-1.5%)
• ACT 0.5% (-1.5%)
• Other 0.0% (-0.5%)

Breakdowns are also given for Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Other NI and Other SI.

Projected Seats

• National 62
• Labour 37
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 8
• Green 9
• United Future 1
• Maori 6
• ACT 1
• Total 125

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Country Direction

• Right 36.5% (-0.5%)
• Wrong 49.5% (+0.5%)
• Can’t Say 14% (nc)