Archive for October, 2009

NZ Herald Digipoll October 2009

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 respondents (3.6% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 15 October to 28 October 2009

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald pdf

Party Support

  • National 57.3% (+9.4%)
  • Labour 32.4% (-4.0%)
  • Green 4.6% (-1.2%)
  • NZ First 0.9% (-3.0%)
  • Maori 2.8% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.7%)
  • ACT 0.9% (-0.9%)
  • Progressive 0.1% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 73
  • Labour 42
  • Green 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 73 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 75/123 – 13 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Progressive 1 + Greens 0 = 43/123 -19 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 55.3% (+9.1%)
  • Clark 10.6% (-31.0%)
  • Goff 6.2% (+6.2%)
  • Peters 2.1% (-2.9%)

Job Approval

  • Bill English 60.8% good or better, 31.9% not good or poor
  • Phil Goff 41.3% good or better, 42.0% not good or poor
Direction
  • Right 61.2%
  • Wrong 27.5%
Financial Crisis Handling by Govt
  • 77.6% say good or better
  • 20.3% not very good or poor
Personal Situation compared to a year ago
  • 28.7% better off
  • 32.6% no change
  • 37.1% worse off
Most effective Minister
  • Bill English 16.2%
  • Paula Bennett 5.5%
  • Judith Collins 3.1%
  • Tony Ryall 2.4%
  • Nick Smith 2.4%
  • Simon Power 2.0%

Note this question appears to be unprompted, and name recognition appears to be a major factor.

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Roy Morgan Poll mid October 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 951 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 05 October to 18 October 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 7.5% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 3.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 37
  • Green 9
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/121 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 47/121 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 67.5% (-4.5%)
  • Wrong 21.5% (+5.0%)
  • Can’t Say 11.0% (-0.5%)

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TV3 Reid Research Poll October 2009

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 917 have a party preference, (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 06 October to 14 October 2009

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 59.9% (+1.8%)
  • Labour 27.2% (-2.0%)
  • Green 6.9% (-0.6%)
  • ACT 1.7% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 2.4%  (+1.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • Progressive 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • NZ First 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 74
  • Labour 33
  • Green 8
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 74 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 77/124 – 14 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 42/124 -21 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 55.8% (+4.3%)
  • Clark 8.2% (+0.2%)
  • Goff 4.7% 6.5% (-1.8%)
  • Peters 3.0%

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 82.3% (+3.7%) doing well vs 7.2% (-2.0%) doing poorly – net positive is 75.1% (=5.1%)
  • Goff  – 34.2% (-0.2%) doing well vs 37.9% (-3.7%) doing poorly – net positive is -3.7% (+3.5%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • capable leader – Key by 40% (+8%)
  • good in a crisis – Key by 29% (+5%)
  • sound judgement – Key by 28% (+8%)
  • honest – Key by 29% (+16%)
  • down to earth – Key by 18% (+9%)
  • understands economic problems – Key by 30% (+8%)
  • has a lot of personality – Key by 46% (+19%)
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 6% (+4%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • more style than substance – Key by 8% (-2%)
  • talk down to people – Goff by 7% (-4%)
  • narrow minded – Goff by 10% (-2%)
  • inflexible – Goff by 9% (-2%)
  • inexperienced – Key by 19% (-3%)
  • out of touch  – Goff by 7% (+4%)

Economy

  • 54% said impact of recession has been what they expected
  • 30% say it was better than expected
  • 14% worse than expected
  • 2% don’t know

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Roy Morgan Poll early October 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 854 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 21 September to 04 October 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 57.5% (+6.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-5.5%)
  • Green 6.5% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (nc)
  • United Future 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 71
  • Labour 35
  • Green 8
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 71 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 74/123 – 12 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 44/123 – 18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 72.0% (+4.5%)
  • Wrong 16.5% (-8.0%)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (+3.5%)

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ResearchNZ on Maori Flag

ResearchNZ polled 500 New Zealanders from 8 to 10 September 2009 on flying the Maori flag.

  • 40% support flying a Maori flag alongside the New Zealand flag on all official occasions, and 51% disagree
  • Women and younger NZers far more likely to support flying a Maori flag on all official occasions

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Colmar Brunton poll on Bill English

Colmar Brunton polled on Bill English for One News, as part of their 1,000 respondent poll in September 2009. Findings:

  • 30% think Bill English has acted with integrity over his housing allowance
  • 54% think he has not
  • 62% think his actions have damaged his credibility as Finance Minister, while 29% disagree

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Colmar Brunton Poll on Wanganui

Colmar Brunton polled on the name of Wanganui for One News, as part of their 1,000 respondent poll in September 2009. Findings:

  • 31% support name change to Whanganui
  • 58% do not
  • 12% unsure

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