Fairfax Research International Poll August 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000, of whom xxx had a party preference

Dates: 25 to 29 August 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 57.1% (+1.1%)
  • Labour 25.7% (-3.3%)
  • Green 11.0% (+4.6%)
  • ACT 1.1% (-1.1%)
  • Maori 1.6% (+0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.1%)
  • Mana 0.6% (+0.4%)
  • NZ First 2.2% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 70
  • Labour 32
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 70 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 72/123 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 14 + Mana 1= 47/123 -15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 54.6% (+1.6%)
  • Phil Goff 8.5% (+2.3%)
  • Winston Peters 2.8% (+0.3%)

Labour Leadership

  • 20% say they are more likely to vote Labour if they change leader
  • 11% say less likely
  • 65% say no difference

Rugby World Cup

  • 68% think NZ will win
  • 11% Australia
  • 7% South Africa
  • 2% England
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