Archive for November, 2008

Roy Morgan early November 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1038 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 20 October to 02 November 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 42.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 34.5% (+2.5%)
  • Green 10.0% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (nc)
  • Maori 2.5% (nc)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 4.0% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Other 1.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 54
  • Labour 44
  • Green 13
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 5
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 54 + ACT 5 + United Future 1 + Maori 4 = 64/122 – majority possible
  • Labour 44 + Progressive 1 + Greens 13 + Maori 4 = 62/122 = majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT and United would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour.

Country Direction

  • Right 51.5% (-1.5%)
  • Wrong 35.0% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (+1.0%)

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Fairfax Poll November 2008

Polling Company: Nielsen

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: unclear, assumed 1000

Dates: estimated up until 2 Nov 2008

Client: Fairfax Media

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0%  (nc)
  • Maori 3.0% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 1.0% (nc)
  • ACT 4.0% (+3.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 39
  • Green 10
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 5
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 61 = 61/121 – majority possible
  • Labour 49 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 + Maori 4 = 54/121 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 61 is shown. It is assumed ACT and United Future would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 48.0% (+5.0%)
  • Helen Clark 35.0% (nc)

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NZ Herald Digipoll November 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 981 respondents of whom 920 (6.1% are undecided) were decided, (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 29 October to 02 November 2008

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald main story

Party Support

  • National 47.9% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 36.4% (-0.6%)
  • Green 5.8% (+0.4%)
  • NZ First 3.9% (+1.8%)
  • Maori 2.3% (-0.1%)
  • United Future 0.7% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 1.8% (+0.6%)
  • Progressive 0.2% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 46
  • Green 7
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 61 + ACT 2 = 63/122 – majority possible
  • Labour 46 + Progressive 1 + Greens 7 + Maori 4 = 58/122 = no majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 46.2 (+1.6%)
  • Clark 41.6% (-3.8%)
  • Peters 5.0% (+1.0%)

Most influential issue

  • Economy 34.6% (+6.6%)

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One News Colmar Brunton Poll November 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 total voters (3.2% maximum margins of error)

Dates: 18 October to 23 October 2008

Client: One News

Report: Not found

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (nc)
  • Labour 35.0% (nc)
  • Green 9.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 2.4% (-0.6%)
  • Maori 1.3% (-1.5%)
  • United Future 0%
  • ACT 2.5% (-0.4%)
  • Progressive 0%

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 43
  • Green 12
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 3
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning six four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 58 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – majority possible
  • Labour 43 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 + Maori 4 = 60/122 = no majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive, Greens and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party.

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Three News TNS Poll November 2008

Polling Company: TNS

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: not known yet

Client: TV3

Report

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (+0.0%)
  • Labour 33.1% (-4.3%)
  • Green 9.0% (-0.2%)
  • NZ First 3.4% (-0.1%)
  • Maori 2.7% (+0.4%)
  • United Future 0.2% (nc)
  • ACT 2.8% (+1.1%)
  • Progressive 0.3% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 42
  • Green 12
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 4
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 59 + ACT 4 = 63/123 – majority possible
  • Labour 42 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 + Maori 4  = 59/123 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 36.4% (+2.8%)
  • Clark 34.2% (+0.6%)

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Economic Management

The Herald Digipoll asked whether a Labour-led government or a National-led one would better handle the New Zealand economy as the world faces a downturn.

  • 49.6% said National
  • 40.7% said Labour

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One News Colmar Brunton Poll 26 October 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 total voters (3.2% maximum margins of error)

Dates: 18 October to 23 October 2008

Client: One News

Report: Not found

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (+3.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (+0.9%)
  • Maori 3.0% (+0.9%)
  • United Future 0.4% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 2.0% (-0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 44
  • Green 10
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 59 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 62/123 – majority possible
  • Labour 44 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 + Maori 6 = 61/123 = no majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive, Greens and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party.

Preferred PM

  • Key 38.0% (-2.0%)
  • Clark 37.0% (+3.0%)

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