Archive for June, 2014

One News Colmar Brunton poll June 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,002 respondents, of whom 813 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 15%

Dates: 21 to 25 June 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 29.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 12.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 0.7% (-0.1%)
  • Maori 1.2% (+0.4%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 2.3% (+1.2%)
  • NZ First 3.8% (-1.0%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 36
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Internet 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/123 – four more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 + Mana/Internet 3 = 54/123 – eight fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 47% (+4.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 10% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 2% (-4.0%)

Coalitions

  • 75% say parties should declare before election day who they would work with
  • 19% disagree

Team NZ

  • 62% say Team NZ should rely on private sponsorship from now on
  • 30% say the Government should give Team NZ more money
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Maui’s dolphins

The WWF state:

A new Colmar Brunton poll released today by WWF shows 60% of New Zealanders are more likely to vote for parties that will protect Maui’s dolphins across their range.

Fundings include:

  • 60% more likely to vote for a political party that extended the ban area for set nets, 7% less likely and 23% no difference
  • 51% more likely to vote for a party that spends to assist commercial fisheries transition to new methods, 10% less likely and 27% no difference

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3 News Reid Research poll June 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: June 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 49.7% (-0.6%)
  • Labour 27.2% (-2.2%)
  • Green 12.7% (+2.5%)
  • ACT 0.4% (-0.2%)
  • Maori 1.5%  (+0.9%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 1.8% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.6% (-2.0%)
  • Conservative 2.8% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 35
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/122 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 16 + Mana/Internet 2 = 54/122 – eight fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 0/124

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 46.7% (+0.4%)
  • Cunliffe 9.6% (-0.2%)

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Roy Morgan poll mid June 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 845 of whom 803 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 02 June to 15 June 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (+7.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-1.5%)
  • Green 12.0% (-4.5%)
  • NZ First 4.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.5% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 36
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/123 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 + Mana 3 = 54/123 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll National would form a Government.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.5% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 24.0% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (+1.0%)

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Fairfax Ipsos poll June 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1017 respondents of whom 777 have a party preference

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 14 to 17 June 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 56.6% (+8.9%)
  • Labour 23.2% (-6.3%)
  • Green 11.9% (-0.9%)
  • NZ First 3.2% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-1.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.7% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 1.2% (+0.7%)
  • Conservative 0.9% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 72
  • Labour 30
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 72 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 74/123 – twelve more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 30 + Greens 15 + Mana 2 = 47/123 – fifteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/122

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 53.3% (+4.7%)
  • David Cunliffe 11.9% (-1.5%)
  • Winston Peters 2.5% (-0.9%)
  • Russel Norman 2.8% (+0.8%)

Country Direction

  • Right 63.1% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 35.4% (-0.2%)

Time for a Change of Government

  • Yes 43.8% (-2.5%)
  • No 48.0% (-0.1%)

Government Performance Out of 10

  • 0 – 2: 9.4% (+0.4%)
  • 3 – 7: 66.0% (-1.0%)
  • 8 – 10: 24.0% (nc)

Most Important Issues

  • Education 22%
  • Economy 21%
  • Health 19%
  • Unemployment 14%
  • Housing Affordability 12%
  • Immigration 4%

MMP Electorate seat threshold

  • 82% against “coat tailing”
  • 14% in favour

Expectation of tax cuts

  • 30% expect tax cuts
  • 61% do not

John Key

  • 22% say they would vote National if John Key stood down
  • 36% say they might depending on who replaced him
  • 39% would not

Comments (1)

NZ Herald Digipoll June 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 12.2%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 659 had a party preference

Dates: 06 to 15 June 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.4% (-0.4%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+1.0%)
  • Green 10.7% (-2.4%)
  • NZ First 3.6% (nc)
  • Maori 0.8% (+0.6%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.7% (-0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.4% (+1.3%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 38
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/123 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 2 = 54/123 -eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 65.9% (-0.6%)
  • Cunliffe 12.7% (+1.6%)
  • Peters 6.2% (-0.3%)
  • Norman 2.5% (-2.0%)

Electorate MP threshold

  • Keep 50%
  • Remove and drop threshold to 4% – 36%

Mana/Internet deal

  • Unprincipled rort 43%
  • Legitimate use of MMP 33%

Country Direction

  • Right 65%

Political Fundraising

  • 42% say politicians speaking regularly to donors in private meetings is a bad look
  • 30% say nothing wrong
  • 21% say it is corrupt

Capital Gains Tax

  • 41% favour
  • 35% opposed

Cannabis

  • 33% decriminalise
  • 20% legalise
  • 45% remain illegal

Immigration

  • Levels about right 50%
  • Too high 35%

Coalition Partners

  • Preferred coalition partner for Labour is Greens 50% then NZ First 35%

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Roy Morgan poll late May 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 849 of whom 802 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 19 May to 01 June 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 52.5% (+7.0%)
  • Labour 29.0% (-1.5%)
  • Green 9.0% (-4.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 37
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/122 – seven more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 50/122 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll National would form a Government.

Country Direction

  • Right 64.5% (+4.5%)
  • Wrong 24.0% (-4.0%)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-0.5%)

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