National Party Coalition Options

TV3/TNS asked about coalition options for National:

• 51% think John Key will do a coalition with NZ First if it is the only way he can become PM, 41% do not
• 57% approve of ACT as a coalition partner for National, 30% do not
• 47% approve of United Future as coalition partner for National, 36% do not
• 47% approve of Maori Party as coalition partner for National, 42% do not
• 39% approve of the Greens as coalition partner for National, 52% do not
• 20% approve of NZ First as coalition partner for National, 72% do not

TV3/TNS Poll September 2008

Polling Company: TNS

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: estimated to be 20 September to 25 September 2008

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

• National 49.0% (+1.0%)
• Labour 36.0% (-1.0%)
• Green 5.0% (-1.0%)
• NZ First 3.0% (nc)
• Maori 2.0% (nc)
• United Future 0.0% (-1.0%)
• ACT 2.0% (nc)
• Progressive 0.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 62
• Labour 46
• Green 6
• NZ First 0
• Maori 6
• United Future 1
• ACT 3
• Progressive 1
• Total 125

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• National 62 + ACT 3 = 65/125 – majority possible
• Labour 46 + Progressive 1 + Greens 6 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 60/125 = no majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

• Key 34.0% (nc)
• Clark 32.0% (+1.0%)

Leader Ratings

• Clark – 58% (-5%) performing well vs 27% (+5%) performing badly
• Key – 55% (-1%) performing well vs 24% (+4%) performing badly

Herald DigiPoll on MMP

The Herald DigiPoll asked 700 respondents about MMP:

• 35% prefer MMP
• 39% prefer FPP
• 10% prefer another system
• 16% do not know or won’t say

NZ Herald DigiPoll September 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 700 respondents, (3.8% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 15 September to 24 September 2008

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald main story and breakdowns here and graphs here.

Party Support

• National 51.4% (+1.4%)
• Labour 35.7% (-0.6%)
• Green 4.9% (-0.2%)
• NZ First 2.8% (+0.7%)
• Maori 2.8% (-0.3%)
• United Future 0.4% (+0.4%)
• ACT 1.1% (-1.2%)
• Progressive 0.4% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

• National 68
• Labour 47
• Green 0
• NZ First 0
• Maori 6
• United Future 1
• ACT 1
• Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• National 68/124 – majority possible
• Labour 47 + Progressive 1 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 55/124 = no majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

• Key 45.5% (-1.1%)
• Clark 43.1% (-1.9%)
• Peters 4.0% (-1.6%)

Most influential issue

• Economy 28.0% (+3.3%)
• Law & Order 17.8% (+0.8%)
• Tax Cuts 16.5% (+0.2%)
• Hospital Waiting Lists 10.3% (-3.5%)

2008 US Presidential Election

A UMR poll from 11 to 14 September found:

• 65% of NZers back Barack Obama
• 11% back John McCain
• Obama gets 69% support from Labour voters, 63% from National voters, 74% from white collar workers and 58% from blue collar workers
• 55% of NZers approved of McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin, with 25% disapproving

Hadron Collider

A UMR poll of 750 people on CERN’s Hadron Collider found

• 53% said they had followed stories on the collider moderately to very closely
• 27% said they were moderately to very concerned it would create a mini black-hole leading to the end of the world
• 8% said they were very concerned it would destroy the world
  

Cellphone skews in the US

JafaPete blogs on US Research from Pew on whether or not respondents who have a cellphone and not a landline differ from those with landlines.

The answer in the US if yes they do, but the overall impact on findings is still relatively modest.

Research NZ on Women’s Equality

A Research NZ poll of 529 respondents on women’s equality was conducted between 2 September and 11 September 2008.

• 34% of women say they do not have equal rights with men. 16% of men agree.
• Overall 72% of NZers think women and men do have equal rights.
• Amongst under 30s, 87% say women and men have equal rights.

Fairfax Poll September 2008

Polling Company: Nielsen

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,130 total voters, 983 decided voters (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 11 to 17 August September 2008 (estimated)

Client: Fairfax Media

Report: Stuff and Stuff

Party Support

• National 52.0% (-2.0%)
• Labour 34.0% (-1.0%)
• Green 5.0% (+1.0%)
• NZ First 3.0% (nc)
• Maori 3.0% (+1.0%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 1.0% (nc)
• Progressive 0.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 66
• Labour 43
• Green 6
• NZ First 0
• Maori 6
• United Future 1
• ACT 1
• Progressive 1
• Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• National 66 = 66/124 – majority possible
• Labour 43 + Progressive 1 + Greens 6 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 57/124 = majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

• Key 41.0% (-2.0%)
• Clark 30.0 (-1.0%)
• Peters 2.0% (nc)

Green Party Polling

This follows on from the NZ First poll comparison. Again Roy Morgan has the Green Party higher than the otehr companies – but less so than with New Zealand First.