One News Colmar Brunton poll October 2013

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,014 respondents of whom 820 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 19 to 23 October 2013

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 45.0% (-2.0%)
• Labour 34.0% (nc)
• Green 13.0% (+1.0%)
• ACT 0.5% (+0.3%)
• Maori 1.4% (+0.1%)
• United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
• Mana 0.3% (+0.3%)
• NZ First 3.9% (+0.3%)
• Conservative 1.6% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

• National 58
• Labour 43
• Green 16
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Conservative 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 43 + Greens 16 + Mana 1= 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 43% (+1.0%)
• David Cunliffe 12% (nc)
• Winston Peters 4% (nc)

Fairfax Ipsos poll October 2013

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,030 of whom 815 have a party preference

Undecideds: 21.9%

Dates: 19 October 2013 to 23 October 2013

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 50.2% (+1.9%)
• Labour 33.6% (+2.0%)
• Green 10.7% (-1.6%)
• NZ First 2.3% (-0.5%)
• Maori 0.7% (-0.3%)
• United Future 0.1% (nc)
• ACT 0.1% (-0.1%)
• Mana 0.7% (+0.2%)
• Conservative 0.7% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

• National 63
• Labour 43
• Green 12
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 63 + ACT1 + United Future 1 = 65/124 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 42 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 56/124 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Country Direction

• Right 59.5% (+1.2%)
• Wrong 40.5% (-1.2%)

Government Rating

• 5.6/10 (+0.4)

Time for a change

• Yes 50.1% (+1.5%)
• No 43.1% (+0.4%)

Leader Attributes:

• Strong and effective PM – Key +25.2%
• Trust on economy – Key +20.6%
• Stable & united Government Key +19.5%
• Create fair society – Cunliffe +3.3%

Roy Morgan poll early October 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 839 of whom 801 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.5%

Dates: 30 September 2013 to 13 October 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 41.5% (-0.5%)
• Labour 37.0% (nc)
• Green 12.5% (+1.0%)
• NZ First 5.0% (+0.5%)
• Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
• ACT 0.5% (nc)
• Mana 0.5% (nc)
• Conservative 0.5% (-1.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 50
• Labour 44
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 6
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 50 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 52/121 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 44 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 6 + Maori 3 = 9/122

On this poll NZ First could form a CL Government or NZ First and Maori Party could form a CR Government.

Country Direction

• Right 55.0% (-4.0%)
• Wrong 31.0% (+1.5%)
• Can’t Say 14.0% (+2.5%)

Roy Morgan poll late September 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 934 of whom 887 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 16 September 2013 to 29 September 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 42.0% (+1.0%)
• Labour 37.0% (+4.5%)
• Green 11.5% (-3.5%)
• NZ First 4.5% (-2.0%)
• Maori 1.0% (nc)
• United Future 0.5% (nc)
• ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
• Mana 0.5% (nc)
• Conservative 2.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 54
• Labour 47
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 54 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 56/122 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 47 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 63/122 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll Labour could form a CL Government.

Country Direction

• Right 59.0% (+6.5%)
• Wrong 29.5% (-6.0%)
• Can’t Say 11.5% (-0.5%)

New Plymouth mayoralty poll

Stuff reports:

New Plymouth looks to have a true mayoral race on its hands, with challenger Andrew Judd edging ahead of incumbent Harry Duynhoven in a poll taken this week.

In the random telephone survey of 477 New Plymouth voters, 20 per cent supported Mr Duynhoven, while his main challenger, businessman and current councillor Andrew Judd, secured 23 per cent.

The poll indicated Hamilton-born businessman Craig Percy and local man Chris Wilkes, who is standing on an environmental platform, were outsiders in the race, with two per cent and one per cent of support respectively.

But it’s early days and 53 per cent of those who took part in the Taranaki Daily News poll were either undecided or ambivalent about the election.

The poll had a 70 per cent response rate and a margin of error of 4.47 per cent.

Christchurch Mayoralty poll

The Press reports:

Mayoral candidate Lianne Dalziel is dominating the latest Press poll, but rival Paul Lonsdale is vowing to fight on.

The Press/Research First poll found 78 per cent of those polled supported Dalziel to Lonsdale’s 19 per cent.

Another  1 per cent did not know who their preferred candidate was, while Tubby Hansen and Brad Maxwell both received  1 per cent support, and another  1 per cent did not know who their preferred candidate was. …

The polling company questioned 763 Christchurch people from September 17 to 25.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 per cent. However, for the question about which candidate they preferred 541 were canvassed with a margin for error of 3.5 per cent, as it excluded those who would definitely not be able to choose.

Hamilton fluoride poll

The Waikato Times reports:

Hamilton voters have been asked and for a third time they have answered emphatically: put fluoride in our drinking water.

Just two weeks before local body election ballots close, a new Waikato Times poll, out today, has found voters overwhelmingly support fluoridation.

The survey, conducted over a three-day period this week, shows 59 per cent support the reintroduction of the chemical – the same percentage as a Versus Research poll in June.

Some 26 per cent supported keeping city water supplies fluoride-free, a two-percentage-point increase.

Two per cent of those questioned refused to answer this week’s poll, while 13 per cent were unsure where they stood on the debate. There were 400 people polled with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 per cent.