Archive for October, 2010

Roy Morgan poll mid October 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 924, of whom 859 have a party preference

Dates: 04 October to 17 October 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.5% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (-3.5%)
  • Green 8.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Maori 1.5% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 41
  • Green 10
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/123 – five more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 10 = 51/123 – 11 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 60.5% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 24.0% (+2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 15.5% (-1.0%)
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Firearms law poll

Research NZ polled 500 NZers from 14 to 22 September:

  • 83% support registration of individual firearms, with 15% against
  • 25% support the sale of semi-automatic guns and 72% want them banned

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Foreign Investment Poll by ResearchNZ

ResearchNZ polled 500 NZers from 14 to 22 September 2010:

  • 41% support overseas businesses being able to buy or invest in NZ farmland, and 53% are against
  • 53% of those aged under 35 are in favour but only 29% of those aged over 55

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TV3 Poll early October 2010

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 863 have a party preference, (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 27 September to 06 October 2010

Client: TV3

Report:

Party Support

  • National 53.8% (-0.7%)
  • Labour 32.6% (+2.0%)
  • Green 7.6% (-0.9%)
  • ACT 0.9% (-1.3%)
  • Maori 2.4%  (+0.9%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • NZ First 1.2% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 40
  • Green 9
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT  and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/123 – 7 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 9 = 49/124 -13 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 50.6% (+1.9%)
  • Clark 3.7% (+1.4%)
  • Goff 8.8% (+1.4%)
  • Peters 3.4% (-0.3%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 75.9% (+6.0%) doing well vs 11.9% (-4.0%) doing poorly – net positive is 64.0% (+10.0%%)
  • Goff  – 34.2% (+3.3%) doing well vs 41.9% (-2.0%) doing poorly – net positive is -7.7% (+5.3%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • honest – Key by 18% (-2%)
  • down to earth – Key by 13% (+1%)
  • understands econ problems – Key by 26% (+3%)
  • has personality – Key by 46% (nc)
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 3% (-2%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • inexperienced – Key by 3% (-10%)
  • out of touch – Key by 0% (-4%)

Auckland Mayoralty (500 sample)

  • 56% Brown
  • 34% Banks
Rodney Hide
  • 23% say he should stay as ACT leader
  • 35% say he should step down
  • 36% say he should resign from Parliament

Act Leadership

  • 30% want Heather Roy (of those who did not say Hide should stay)
  • 17% Roger Douglas
  • 11% John Boscawen
  • 42% None

 

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Roy Morgan Poll late September 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 820, of whom 750 have a party preference

Dates: 20 September to 03 October 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (=1.0%)
  • Labour 36.5% (+2.5%)
  • Green 8.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-2.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 45
  • Green 10
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – the exact minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 45 + Greens 10 = 55/124 – 7 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 61.5% (+3.5%)
  • Wrong 22.0% (-6.0%)
  • Can’t Say 16.5% (+2.5%)

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