Archive for May, 2014

Most important issues

Roy Morgan reports:

When asked about the most important problem facing New Zealand, 44% of New Zealanders mention some kind of Economic issue. This is up 2% since February 2014 and still well ahead of Social issues (21%, unchanged), Government/ Public policy/ Human rights issues (18%, down 1%) and Environmental issues (8%, down 1%).

The most important Economic issues facing New Zealand include Poverty / The gap between the rich and the poor (18%, up 2%), Economy/ Financial crisis/ Recession/ Inflation/ Exchange rate/ High dollar (8%, down 2%), Unemployment/ Job security (8%, up 1%) and the Cost of living/ Increasing prices/ Financial hardship/ Household debt (5%, unchanged).

Other important issues mentioned by New Zealanders are the Government/ Politicians/ Leadership/ Government spending (6%, down 2%), Drugs/ Alcohol Issues/ Drink Driving (5%, up 1%), Housing shortage/ Affordability (5%, up 2%),  Social apathy/ Lack of values/ Lack of empathy towards others/ Intolerance (4%, down 1%) and Education (3%, unchanged).

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3 News Reid Research poll May 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: approx 17 to 22 May 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 50.3% (+4.4%)
  • Labour 29.5% (-1.7%)
  • Green 10.2% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.6%)
  • Maori 0.6%  (-0.9%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-0.9%)
  • NZ First 5.6% (+0.7%)
  • Conservative 2.3% (+0.4%)
  • Internet 0.6% (+0.6%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 36
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/124 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 13 + Mana 1 + Internet 0 = 50/124 – thirteen fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/124

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 46.3% (+3.7%)
  • Cunliffe 9.8% (+0.8%)
  • Peters
  • Norman

2014 Budget

  • 73% like Budget 24% dislike
  • 67% of Labour voters like it

Immigration

  • 62% support tighter restrictions on immigration
  • 35% oppose

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One News Colmar Brunton poll May 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 755 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 17%

Dates: 17 to 21 May 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (+4.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 11.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 0.8% (+0.1%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • Mana 0.4% (+0.4%)
  • NZ First 4.8% (-2.2%)
  • Conservative 1.3% (-1.0%)
  • Internet 0.7% (+0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 38
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Internet 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/123 – five more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 + Internet 0 = 53/123 – nine fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 43% (+1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 10% (+2.0%)
  • Winston Peters 6% (+2.0%)

House Prices

  • 68% support register of foreign ownership of property, 22% against
  • 57% support more immigration controls to reduce house prices, 33% against

Economic Outlook

  • Better 59% (-3%)
  • Same 24% (+6%)
  • Worse 17% (-3%)

Budget

  • Better off 9% (+3%)
  • Same 66% (-4%)
  • Worse off 10% (-3%)

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Roy Morgan poll early May 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 873 of whom 825 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 05 May to 18 May 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 45.5% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 30.5% (-0.5%)
  • Green 13.5% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 1.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Internet 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 37
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/123 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 17 + Mana 1 = 55/123 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/123

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 60.0% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 28.0% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (+0.5%)

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Fairfax Ipsos poll May 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,011

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 10 May to 12 May 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 47.6% (-1.8%)
  • Labour 29.5% (-2.3%)
  • Green 12.7% (+2.7%)
  • NZ First 3.7% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 1.9% (+0.8%)
  • United Future 0.1% (nc)
  • ACT 0.9% (+0.4%)
  • Mana 0.5% (+0.2%)
  • Conservative 1.6% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 38
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 16 + Mana 1 = 55/122 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/122

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 48.6% (-1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 13.4% (-3.9%)
  • Winston Peters 3.4% (+0.6%)

Country Direction

  • Right 63.6% (-0.1%)
  • Wrong 35.7% (+0.1%)

Time for a Change of Government

  • Yes 46.3% (-1.0%)
  • No 48.1% (+0.1%)

Keep interest rates low

  • National 40%
  • Labour 26%

Spending

  • Should increase spending in Budget 21%
  • Decrease spending 21%
  • Maintain current levels 51%

Most important issues

  • Freeze on energy and fuel prices 74% personally/69% for country
  • Tax cuts for workers 70%/69%
  • Increase minimum wage 55%/72%
  • Help first time buyers 54%/76%
  • Reduce childcare costs 44% personally/66% for country
  • Increase paid parental leave 32%/45%
  • Introduce capital gains tax 28%/44%
  • Increase pension age 26%/46%

Government performance

  • Keeping unemployment down – 52%
  • Balancing tax and expenditure – 57%
  • Managing economy 69%
  • Improve standard of living 41%
  • Improve standard of living for poor people 31%
  • Improve standard of living for rich people 75%

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Q+A Colmar Brunton Poll May 2014

Colmar Brunton have done a poll of 500 respondents for TVNZ’s Q+A programme. Their findings:

  • 42% say Judith Collins should resign as a Minister and 42% disagree
  • 50% say her behaviour has been damaging to the Government, and 42% say it won’t make a difference
  • 46% say John Key has handled Collins and Williamson well and 42% say not well
  • 23% say these issues will influence their vote and 75% say they will not.

Stats Chat comments on this poll here.

Andrew at Grumpolie responds to some of the comments and analysis of the poll here.

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