One News Colmar Brunton poll September 2013

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: approx 1,000 respondents of whom approx 860 had a voting preference

Undecideds: Dates: estimate 14 to 18 September 2013

Client: One News

Report: One News

Party Support

• National 47.0% (+1.0%)
• Labour 34.0% (+1.0%)
• Green 12.0% (-2.0%)
• ACT
• Maori 1.0% (-0.6%)
• United Future
• Mana
• NZ First 4.0% (+0.7%)
• Conservative 1.0% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

• National 59
• Labour 43
• Green 16
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Conservative 0
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/124 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 43 + Greens 16 + Mana 1= 60/124 – three fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 42% (+1.0%)
• David Cunliffe 12% (-1.0% from Shearer)
• Winston Peters 4% (nc)

NZ Herald Digipoll September 2013

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 8.6%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 686 had a party preference

Dates: 17 to 23 September 2013

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

• National 43.7% (-5.1%)
• Labour 37.7% (+6.8%)
• Green 11.3% (+0.8%)
• NZ First 4.4% (-0.7%)
• Maori 0.8% (-1.0%)
• United Future
• ACT
• Mana 0.7% (+0.2%)
• Conservative 1.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 56
• Labour 48
• Green 14
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• ACT 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/124 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 48 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 63/124 -the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/124

On this poll, there would be a centre-left Government.

Preferred PM

• Key 55.8% (-9.4%)
• Cunliffe 16.8% +4.4% from Shearer)
• Peters 6.2% (-0.2%)
• Norman 3.7% (+0.1%)

Impact of Cunliffe win on Labour

• More likely to vote Labour 20.4%
• Less likely to vote Labour 14.4%
• No difference 63.0%

Subsidies

• Film production subsidies 64% approve, 32% disapprove
• Tiwai Point subsidy 48% approve, 46% disapprove

Republic

• 29% support
• 60% opposition

Charter schools

• 45% support
• Slightly over half think  public money should be prioritised for public schools

Roy Morgan poll early September 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 828 of whom 778 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.0%

Dates: 26 August 2013 to 08 September 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 41.0% (-3.0%)
• Labour 32.5% (+1.0%)
• Green 15.0% (+1.0%)
• NZ First 6.5% (+1.0%)
• Maori 1.0% (-1.0%)
• United Future 0.5% (nc)
• ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
• Mana 0.5% (nc)
• Conservative 1.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 5040
• Labour 40
• Green 18
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 8
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 50 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 52/122 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 40 + Greens 18 + Mana 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 8 + Maori 3 = 11/122

On this poll NZ First could form a CL Government or NZ First and Maori Party could form a CR Government.

Country Direction

• Right 52.5% (-5.5%)
• Wrong 35.5% (+5.0%)
• Can’t Say 12.0% (+0.5%)

3 News Labour Leadership poll

3 News reports on the preferred candidates for Labour Leader:

• David Cunliffe 39.6%
• Shane Jones 31.6%
• Grant Robertson 28.8%

Among Labour voters:

• David Cunliffe 45.6%
• Shane Jones 28.1%
• Grant Robertson 26.4%

Will Robertson’s sexuality affect his chances of becomiing PM

• Yes 58.5%
• No 41.5%

Is Shane Jones fully rehabilitated

• Yes 39.5%
• No 60.5%

Hamilton Mayor poll

The Waikato Times reports:

The new poll puts Ms Hardaker’s support at 20 per cent, then Ewan Wilson with 10 per cent and Dave Macpherson at 6 per cent, but critically stages undecided voters – 49 per cent of those polled – as mayor-makers.

 

Roy Morgan poll late August 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 819 of whom 778 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 12 August 2013 to 25 August 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 44.0% (nc)
• Labour 31.5% (-2.5%)
• Green 14.0% (nc)
• NZ First 5.5% (+2.5%)
• Maori 2.0% (nc)
• United Future 0.5% (+0.5)
• ACT 0.5% (nc)
• Mana 0.5% (nc)
• Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 53
• Labour 38
• Green 17
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 7
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 17 + Mana 1 = 56/121 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/121

On this poll there NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

• Right 58.0% (nc)
• Wrong 30.5% (+0.5)
• Can’t Say 11.5% (-0.5%)