Archive for September, 2013

One News Colmar Brunton poll September 2013

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: approx 1,000 respondents of whom approx 860 had a voting preference

UndecidedsDates: estimate 14 to 18 September 2013

Client: One News

Report: One News

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 34.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 12.0% (-2.0%)
  • ACT
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.6%)
  • United Future
  • Mana
  • NZ First 4.0% (+0.7%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 43
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/124 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 43 + Greens 16 + Mana 1= 60/124 – three fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 42% (+1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 12% (-1.0% from Shearer)
  • Winston Peters 4% (nc)
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NZ Herald Digipoll September 2013

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 8.6%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 686 had a party preference

Dates: 17 to 23 September 2013

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 43.7% (-5.1%)
  • Labour 37.7% (+6.8%)
  • Green 11.3% (+0.8%)
  • NZ First 4.4% (-0.7%)
  • Maori 0.8% (-1.0%)
  • United Future
  • ACT
  • Mana 0.7% (+0.2%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 48
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/124 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 48 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 63/124 -the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/124

On this poll, there would be a centre-left Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 55.8% (-9.4%)
  • Cunliffe 16.8% +4.4% from Shearer)
  • Peters 6.2% (-0.2%)
  • Norman 3.7% (+0.1%)

Impact of Cunliffe win on Labour

  • More likely to vote Labour 20.4%
  • Less likely to vote Labour 14.4%
  • No difference 63.0%

Subsidies

  • Film production subsidies 64% approve, 32% disapprove
  • Tiwai Point subsidy 48% approve, 46% disapprove

Republic

  • 29% support
  • 60% opposition

Charter schools

  • 45% support
  • Slightly over half think  public money should be prioritised for public schools

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Roy Morgan poll early September 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 828 of whom 778 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.0%

Dates: 26 August 2013 to 08 September 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 41.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 32.5% (+1.0%)
  • Green 15.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 5040
  • Labour 40
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 50 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 52/122 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 18 + Mana 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 3 = 11/122

On this poll NZ First could form a CL Government or NZ First and Maori Party could form a CR Government.

Country Direction

  • Right 52.5% (-5.5%)
  • Wrong 35.5% (+5.0%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (+0.5%)

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3 News Labour Leadership poll

3 News reports on the preferred candidates for Labour Leader:

  • David Cunliffe 39.6%
  • Shane Jones 31.6%
  • Grant Robertson 28.8%

Among Labour voters:

  • David Cunliffe 45.6%
  • Shane Jones 28.1%
  • Grant Robertson 26.4%

Will Robertson’s sexuality affect his chances of becomiing PM

  • Yes 58.5%
  • No 41.5%

Is Shane Jones fully rehabilitated

  • Yes 39.5%
  • No 60.5%

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Hamilton Mayor poll

The Waikato Times reports:

The new poll puts Ms Hardaker’s support at 20 per cent, then Ewan Wilson with 10 per cent and Dave Macpherson at 6 per cent, but critically stages undecided voters – 49 per cent of those polled – as mayor-makers.

 

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Roy Morgan poll late August 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 819 of whom 778 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 12 August 2013 to 25 August 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (nc)
  • Labour 31.5% (-2.5%)
  • Green 14.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 5.5% (+2.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 53
  • Labour 38
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 17 + Mana 1 = 56/121 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/121

On this poll there NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0% (nc)
  • Wrong 30.5% (+0.5)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-0.5%)

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