Archive for June, 2010

TV3 poll June 2010

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 880 have a party preference, (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 8 June to 15 June 2010

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 55.3% (+3.2%)
  • Labour 30.5% (-3.3%)
  • Green 7.5% (-0.7%)
  • ACT 1.6% (nc)
  • Maori 1.9%  (nc)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.4%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • NZ First 1.8% (+0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 38
  • Green 9
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 72/124 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 9 = 47/124 -16 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 49.6% (+0.4%)
  • Clark 4.9% (+1.2%)
  • Goff 5.1% (-2.4%)
  • Peters ?

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 69.0% (+0.2%) doing well vs 15.9% (-0.5%) doing poorly – net positive is 53.1% (+0.7%)
  • Goff  – 27.2% (-6.9%) doing well vs 45.4% (+3.9%) doing poorly – net positive is -18.2% (-10.8%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • honest – Key by 20% (-6%)
  • down to earth – Key by 12% (-5%)
  • understands econ problems – Key by 23% (-2%)
  • has personality – Key by 46% (+4%)
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 5% (-9%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • inexperienced – Key by 13% (-2%)
  • out of touch – Key by 4% (+1%)
Asset Sales
  • 85% say Govt should not sell Kiwibank, 9% say sell
  • 53.5% believe National will try and sell Kiwibank if they win a second term, 29.5% think they won’t
  • 80% say no the sale of any state assets, with only 12% supporting sale
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Roy Morgan Poll mid June 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 923, of whom 863 have a party preference

Dates: 31 May to 13 June 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 50.5% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (+3.0%)
  • Green 9.5% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Maori 3.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 1.5% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 40
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/121 – 3 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 12 = 52/121 – 9 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 60.5% (-3.0%)
  • Wrong 24.0% (-2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 15.5% (+5.0%)

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Roy Morgan Poll late May 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 902, of whom 852 have a party preference

Dates: 17 May to 30 May 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.5% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (-3.5%)
  • Green 9.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 3.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 37
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/121 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 12 = 49/121 – 12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.5% (+4.0%)
  • Wrong 26.0% (-2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 10.5% (-1.5%)

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