Archive for November, 2013

Te Tai Tokerau poll

Stuff reports:

The Te Karere-Digipoll asked voters when they choose their local MP which party would the candidate likely come from.

Labour had the edge with 32 per cent over Mana with 28 per cent.

A Maori party candidate would get 14 per cent, the survey found.

Harawira held the seat in 2011 with a 1165 majority over Labour’s Kelvin Davis.

The poll had Green and National candidates on 3 per cent each and NZ First on 2 per cent.

Another 18 per cent were either undecided or picked another option, but the pollsters did not provide a breakdown.

When it came to the party vote Labour was backed by 30 per cent, Mana by 19 per cent and the Maori Party 19 per cent

National scored 6 per cent, the Greens 8 per cent each and NZ First 3 per cent.

Fourteen per cent were undecided.

With undecideds taken out, Labour was on 35 per cent of the decided vote (34.7 per cent at the 2011 election), with Mana on 22 per cent (24.5 per cent in 2011) and Maori on 22 per cent (11.2 per cent in 2011). 

There was strong backing for Harawira’s performance as the local MP with 14 per cent rating it “fantastic”, 39 per cent above average and 31 per cent average.

Only 12 per cent rated it either below average or poor. 

The survey of 500 had a margin of error of 4.3 per cent.

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3 News Reid Research Poll November 2013

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error) of whom approx 857 have a voting preference

Undecideds: 14.3%

Dates: approx 03 to 07 November 2013

Client: 3 News

Report3NewsPoll november 2013

Party Support

  • National 46.3% (-3.2%)
  • Labour 32.2% (+1.2%)
  • Green 10.4% (-1.6%)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 1.2%  (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 1.3% (+1.1%)
  • NZ First 4.2% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 2.8% (+1.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 42
  • Green 14
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on ACT losing Epsom and the Maori Party losing one seat.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 0 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 14 + Mana 2 = 58/121 – three fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 2 = 2/122

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 40.9% (-1.1%)
  • Cunliffe 10.8% (-1.3% from Shearer)
  • Peters 7.5% (+0.5%)
  • Norman 2.2% (+0.5%)

Leader Ratings

  • John Key – 58% well (+6%) and 28% poor (-4%) = 30% net positive (+10%)
  • David Cunliffe – 42% well (+16% from Shearer) and 25% poor (-19%) = 18% net positive (+35%)

KiwiAssure

  • 42% support a state insurer
  • 49% oppose it

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