Archive for October, 2011

Te Tai Tokerau poll October 2011

Digipoll did a poll of 400 respondents in the Te Tai Tokerau electorate.

Party Vote

  • Labour 27%
  • Maori 27%
  • Mana 25%
  • National 14%
  • Greens 4%
  • NZ Furst 3%

Electorate Vote

  • Hone Harawira (Mana) 42%
  • Kelvin Davis (Labour) 35%
  • Waihoroi Shortland (Maori) 20%

Preferred PM

  • John Key 26%
  • Hone Harawira 11%
  • Shane Jones 7%
  • Pita Sharples 7%
  • Phil Goff 6%
  • Tariana Turia 3%
  • Kelvin Davis 2%

Government Direction

  • Right 29%
  • Wrong 58%

Most favoured Maori MP

  • Hone Harawira 30%
  • Pita Sharples 22%
  • Kelvin Davis 11%
  • Tariana Turia 7%
  • Shane Jones 6%

Most Important Issue

  • Education 18%
  • Employment 15%
  • Whanau 10%
  • Treaty Claims 9%

Well being

  • Better Off 20%
  • Worse Off 50%
  • No difference 30%
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NZ Herald Digipoll October 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 10.6%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 671 had a party vote preference

Dates: 20 to 27 October 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 53.5% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 30.3% (-1.2%)
  • Green 9.5% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 2.8% (+0.4%)
  • Maori 1.2% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.1% (nc)
  • ACT 1.5% (+0.3%)
  • Mana 0.1% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 38
  • Green 12
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Mana 1
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each with Labour winning Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 70/124 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 51/124 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 70.6% (+0.9%)
  • Goff 13.7% (+2.2%)
  • Peters 3.5% (-1.7%)

Direction

  • Right 59.0% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 32.0% (-0.2%)
  • Unsure 9.0% (+0.7%)

MMP

  • Keep MMP 48%
  • Change 15%
  • Don’t Know 15%

Rugby World Cup

  • 39% say McCaw should be knighted for winning RWC, 61% say no
  • 57% say the RWC was a great event and worth spending $40m on

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NZ view of other countries

UMR polled 750 NZers on their views of other countries.

The net positive ratings for each country were:

  1. Australia +66%
  2. Scotland +45%
  3. Wales +37%
  4. England +36%
  5. Japan +33%
  6. Germaany +33%
  7. Ireland +32%
  8. France +24%
  9. China +10%
  10. Brazil +9%
  11. India +6%
  12. USA +1%
  13. South Africa -8%
  14. Russia – 10%
  15. Greece -30%
  16. Pakistan -50%

Australia

  • If Australia not playing NZ, 46% support Australia
  • 33% support other country
  • If RWC Final had been Australia v South Africa 63% support Australia and 25% South Africa

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UMR Epsom poll

NBR have published a poll done in Epsom of 400 voters taken on 7 an 8 October.

Electorate Vote

  • Paul Goldsmith, National – 42%
  • John Banks, ACT – 28%
  • David Parker, Labour – 19%
  • David Hay, Greens – 11%

Electorate Vote if John Key indicates he wants ACT to win Epsom

  • Paul Goldsmith, National – 25%
  • John Banks, ACT – 43%
  • David Parker, Labour – 19%
  • David Hay, Greens – 11%

Expect to win Epsom

  • Paul Goldsmith, National – 37%
  • John Banks, ACT – 53%
  • David Parker, Labour – 9%
  • David Hay, Greens – 1%

Party Vote

  • National 65%
  • Labour 19%
  • Greens 10%
  • ACT 4%

Don Brash as ACT Leader

  • Worked out poorly 47%
  • Made no difference 30%
  • Worked out well 14%
  • Unsure 9%

 

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Roy Morgan early October 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 847, of whom 788 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7%

Dates: 26 September to 09 October 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 55.5% (+4.5%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-2.5%)
  • Green 9.5% (-2.0%)
  • ACT 1.5% (nc)
  • Maori 2.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 34
  • Green 12
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/121 – 10 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 47/122 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 62.0% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 24.5% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-0.5%)

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Hamilton Poll

A Versus Research poll of 413 Hamilton residents for the Waikato Times found:

Hamilton East

  • David Bennett, National – 51.2%
  • Sehai Orgad, Labour – 19.5%
  • Don’t Know 22.4%

Hamilton West

  • Tim Macindoe, National, 41.8%
  • Sue Moroney, Labour – 31.3%
  • Don’t Know 31.3%

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Epsom Poll October 2011

The Herald on Sunday publishes results of a poll of 500 Epsom voters by Key Research,

Party Vote

  • National 67.6%
  • Labour 9.7%
  • ACT 5.7%
  • Greens 5.3%

Electorate Vote

  • National 32.9%
  • ACT 18.9%
  • Labour 4.3%
  • Greens 1.0%
  • Undecided 41.5%

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