3 News Northland poll

3 News reports:

The latest 3 News-Reid Research poll shows Mr Peters is ahead in the race for the electorate. He’s way ahead on 54 percent, with National candidate Mark Osborne polling only 34 percent. …

Bridges is another big issue, with National promising up to $69 million for bridges in the region.

Asked if it’s a bribe, 74 percent of voters said yes, 22 percent said no and the rest – 4 percent – said they didn’t know.

“People can see through it – they know it’s just a bribe,” says Mr Peters.

Still, a majority – 58 percent – said they want the bridges, while quite a lot – 39 percent – said they didn’t. The rest didn’t know.

Asked if they trust Winston Peters, 43 percent said yes, while a majority 48 percent said no. The rest didn’t know.

3 News Northland Poll

3 News reports:

• Winston Peters, NZF 35%
• Mark Osborne, Nat 30%
• Willow-Jean Prime, Lab, 16%
• Don’t Know/Won’r Vote 19%

Also:

• 71% say voters should have been told of Sabin investigation, 20% no
• 13% say Peters is too old, 85% no

3 News Reid Research Poll Jan 2015

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 20 to 28 January 2015

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 49.8% (+4.3%)
• Labour 29.1% (+3.5%)
• Green 9.3% (-5.1%)
• ACT 0.4% (+0.3%)
• Maori 1.3%  (+0.2%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
• Mana/Internet 0.6% (-1.4%)
• NZ First 6.9% (-0.2%)
• Conservative 2.7% (-2.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 62
• Labour 36
• Green 12
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 8
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 36 + Greens 12 = 48/122 – 14 fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 8 + Maori 2 = 10/122

On this poll National could govern alone.

Preferred PM

• John Key 44.0% (-0.1%)
• Andrew Little 9.8% (-2.5% from Cunliffe)

Andrew Little as Leader

• Better match for Key than predecessors 55%
• The same 12%
• Worse 18%
• Don’t Know 18%

Leader Ratings

• John Key – performing well 63%, performing badly 24%, net approval = +39%
• Andrew Little – performing well 45%, performing badly 17%, net approval = +28%

Whale Oil

• Key should stop texting Whale Oil 68%
• Key should continue texting 18%

3 News Reid Research poll mid September 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 09 to 15 September 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 44.5% (-2.2%)
• Labour 25.6% (-0.5%)
• Green 14.4% (+1.4%)
• ACT 0.1% (-0.2%)
• Maori 1.1%  (-0.2%)
• United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
• Mana/Internet 2.0% (+0.3%)
• NZ First 7.1% (+1.2%)
• Conservative 4.9% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 56
• Labour 33
• Green 18
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana/Internet 3
• NZ First 9
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/124 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 33 + Greens 18 + Mana/Internet 3 = 54/124 – nine fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 9 + Maori 3 = 12/124

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 44.1% (-1.2%)
• David Cunliffe 12.3% (nc)
• Winston Peters 9.1% (+1.2%)

Preferred Coalition Partner for National

• All voters – NZ First 54%, Conservatives 37%
• National voters – NZ First 36%, Conservatives 54%

Kim Dotcom and hacking

• 38% think Kim Dotcom was behind hacking of Whale Oil’s e-mails
• 32% do not
• 30% unsure

Te Tai Tokerau poll

Maori TV poll in Te Tai Tokerau has found:

Electorate Vote

• Harawira, Mana 38%
• Davis, Labour 37%
• Paenga, Maori 9%
• Dearlove, Independent 1%

3 News poll early September 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 01 to 08 September 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 46.7% (+0.3%)
• Labour 26.1% (+0.2%)
• Green 13.0% (+0.4%)
• ACT 0.3% (-0.3%)
• Maori 1.3%  (-0.7%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
• Mana/Internet 1.7% (nc)
• NZ First 5.9% (+0.1%)
• Conservative 4.7% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 59
• Labour 33
• Green 17
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana/Internet 2
• NZ First 7
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/123 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 33 + Greens 17 + Mana/Internet 2 = 52/123 – ten fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/123

On this poll, the centre parties would hold the balance of power. National could govern with NZ First or with the Maori Party (and ACT/UF). Labour could only govern with the Greens, Internet Mana, NZ First and the Maori Party.

Preferred PM

• John Key 45.3% (+0.2%)
• David Cunliffe 12.3% (+0.9%)

 

Tāmaki Makaurau poll September 2014

Apologies to Maori TV for a technical error around timezones leading to this appearing one hour before the embargo.

Reid Research have done a 500 person poll of Tāmaki Makaurau for Maori TV. Key results are:

Party Vote

• Labour 37% (-5% from election)
• Maori Party 17% (+3%)
• National 13% (+5%)
• Greens 9% (nc)
• Internet Mana 12% (-2%)
• NZ First 11% (+1%)

Electorate Vote

• Maori Party 28% (-12% from 2011 election)
• Labour 27% (-8%)
• Greens 7% (-1%)
• Mana 14% (-2%)

Most important issues (rated 6/10 or higher)

• Family violence 95%
• Education 94%
• Child poverty 92%
• Cost of living 91%
• Te Reo Maori 91%
• Maori unemployment 88%
• Housing 87%
• Maori Leadership 81%
• Mining 61%

If Maori Party balance of power

• Prefer Labour 63%
• Prefer National 25%

Waiariki poll August 2014

Reid Research have done a 500 person poll of Waiariki for Maori TV. Key results are:

Party Vote

• Labour 35% (nc from election)
• Maori Party 26% (+5%)
• National 11% (+5%)
• Greens 5% (-4%)
• Internet Mana 14% (-3%)
• NZ First 8% (-3%)

Electorate Vote

• Maori Party 50% (+7%)
• Labour 17% (-8%)
• Greens 2% (+2%)
• Mana 21% (-11%)

Most important issues (rated 6/10 or higher)

• Family violence 96%
• Education 96%
• Child poverty 96%
• Cost of living 94%
• Te Reo Maori 91%
• Maori unemployment 90%
• Housing 89%
• Maori Leadership 84%
• Mining 70%

If Maori Party balance of power

• Prefer Labour 63%
• Prefer National 26%

Should Maori and Mana work together

• Yes 66%
• No 29%

 

Ikaroa Rāwhiti Poll August 2014

Reid Research have done a 500 person poll of Ikaroa Rāwhiti  for Maori TV. Key results are:

Party Vote

• Labour 45% (-5% from election)
• Maori Party 14% (-1%)
• National 10% (+4%)
• Greens 8% (-1%)
• Internet Mana 13% (+3%)
• NZ First 10% (+2%)

Electorate Vote

• Maori Party 18% (-2%)
• Labour 37% (-4%)
• Greens 6% (-5%)
• Mana 21% (-5%)

Most important issues (rated 6/10 or higher)

• Family violence 94%
• Education 95%
• Child poverty 93%
• Cost of living 92%
• Te Reo Maori 90%
• Maori unemployment 90%
• Housing 88%
• Maori Leadership 83%
• Mining 64%

If Maori Party balance of power

• Prefer Labour 66%
• Prefer National 20%

 

3 News Poll late late August 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 26 to 31 August 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 46.4% (+1.4%)
• Labour 25.9% (-0.5%)
• Green 12.6% (-0.9%)
• ACT 0.6% (+0.3%)
• Maori 2.0%  (+1.3%)
• United Future 0.1% (-0.3%)
• Mana/Internet 1.7% (-0.4%)
• NZ First 5.8% (-0.5%)
• Conservative 4.2% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

• National 58
• Labour 33
• Green 16
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana/Internet 2
• NZ First 7
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 33 + Greens 16 + Mana/Internet 2 = 51/121 – ten fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/121

On this poll, the centre parties would hold the balance of power. National could govern with NZ First or with the Maori Party (and ACT/UF). Labour could only govern with the Greens, Internet Mana, NZ First and the Maori Party.

Preferred PM

• John Key 45.1% (+3.7%)
• David Cunliffe 11.4% (+0.3%)