Archive for February, 2014

One News Colmar Brunton poll February 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,007 respondents, of whom 834 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 15 to 19 February 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (+6.0%)
  • Labour 34.0% (nc)
  • Green 8.0% (-5.0%)
  • ACT 0.4% (-0.1%)
  • Maori 0.9% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.2%)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 3.1% (-0.8%)
  • Conservative 1.3% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 44
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/125 – three more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 44 + Greens 11 + Mana 1= 56/125 – seven fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125

On this poll there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 43% (+1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 10% (-2.0%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (nc)

Winston Peters

  • 43% say he should be a Minister
  • 43% say he should not

Most important issues

  • Education 40%
  • Health 37%
  • Jobs 30%
  • Child poverty 27%
  • Wages 23%
  • Crime 21%
  • Income tax 17%
  • Asset sales 17%
  • House prices 15%
  • Inequality 14%

Minimum Wage

  • Increase to more than $15/hour 23%
  • Increase to $15/hour 46%
  • Increase to less than $15/hour 16%
  • Stay at $13.75/hour 13%

NZ Flag

  • Design a new flag 28%
  • Keep current flag 72%
  • If change, 85% say public should decide design

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Roy Morgan poll mid February 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 859 of whom 825 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 03 February to 16 February 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (-3.0%)
  • Green 12.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 5.5% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.5% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • Mana 1.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 36
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 52/123 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 7/123

On this poll a centre-right Government could be formed with the Maori Party or NZ First. A centre-left Government would need both the Maori Party and NZ First.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.5% (nc)
  • Wrong 23.5% (-1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (+1.0%)

Comments (2)

Fairfax Ipsos poll Feb 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,018 of whom 845 have a party preference

Undecideds: 17%

Dates: 10 February to 12 February 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 49.4% (-0.8%)
  • Labour 31.8% (-1.8%)
  • Green 10.0% (-0.7%)
  • NZ First 3.6% (+1.3%)
  • Maori 1.1% (+0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.4%)
  • Mana0.3% (-0.4%)
  • Conservative 2.1% (+1.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 41
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/124 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 13 + Mana 1 = 55/124 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.7% (+4.2%)
  • Wrong 35.6% (-4.9%)

Government Rating

  • 5.8/10 (+0.2)

Time for a change

  • Yes 47.3% (-2.8%)
  • No 48.0% (+4.9%)

Baby Bonus

  • Support 48.5%
  • Oppose 48.1%

Raise Taxes

  • Support 25.2%
  • Oppose 69.4%

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Roy Morgan poll early Feb 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 846 of whom 812 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 20 January to 02 February 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (+3.5%)
  • Labour 33.0% (-0.5%)
  • Green 11.0% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (-1.01.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 42
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/123 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 57/123 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll there would be a centre-right Government,

Country Direction

  • Right 63.5% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 24.5% (+1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (-1.5%)

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3 News Reid Research Poll January 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: approx 21 to 28 January 2014

Client: 3 News

Report3 News

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-3.2%)
  • Labour 33.5% (+1.2%)
  • Green 12.4% (-1.6%)
  • ACT 0.0% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 1.0%  (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.3% (+1.1%)
  • NZ First 5.7% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 2.1% (+1.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 42
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/125 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 58/125 – five fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/125

On this poll, NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Key 39.0% (-1.9%)
  • Cunliffe 10.8% (nc)
  • Peters 5.8% (-1.7%)
  • Norman

NZ First

  • 54% say John Key should work with Winston Peters, 36% say he should rule him out
  • 61% of National supporters say John Key should work with Winston Peters, 32% say he should rule him out

Internet Party

  • 21% said they would consider voting for Kim Dotcom’s Internet Party
  • 75% would not

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Roy Morgan poll mid January 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,509 of whom 1,449 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 06 January to 19 January 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 43.5% (-1.5%)
  • Labour 33.5% (+3.0%)
  • Green 12.5% (-2.0%)
  • NZ First 4.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 2.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 43
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 43 + Greens 16 + Mana 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.0% (+4.5%)
  • Wrong 23.5% (-5.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (+0.5%)

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