Archive for August, 2014

Fairfax Ipsos poll late August 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 825 have a party preference

Undecideds: 17.5%

Dates: 21 to 27 August 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 50.8% (-4.3%)
  • Labour 26.1% (+3.6%)
  • Green 11.8% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 4.0% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.7% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 2.2% (+0.1%)
  • Conservative 2.7% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 34
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/123 – six more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 15 + Mana 3 = 52/123 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 55.0% (-4.5%)
  • David Cunliffe 17.9% (+3.8%)

Dirty Politics

  • 30% say all parties do it
  • 28% say National worst
  • 17% Internet-Mana
  • 17% Labour
  • 47% say book damages John Key, 43% disagree
  • 8% say it has led them to change their vote
  • 55% say all politicians play “dirty”

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NZ Herald Digipoll late August 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 7.5%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 691 had a party preference

Dates: 21 to 27 August 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.7% (+0.7%)
  • Labour 24.1% (-1.1%)
  • Green 11.4% (-1.7%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+0.7%)
  • Maori 1.0% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.2% (-0.2%)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.3%)
  • Mana/Internet 3.4% (+1.3%)
  • Conservative 3.3% (+0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 31
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 4
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/124 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 4 = 49/124 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6 + Maori 3 = 9/124

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 67.8% (+3.0%)
  • Cunliffe 11.6% (-3.0%)
  • Peters 8.2% (+3.1%)
  • Norman 3.8% (+0.3%)

 Judith Collins

  • Should resign 46%
  • Should not resign 46%

Dirty Politics book

  • 53% say media coverage justified
  • 30% say not

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Te Tai Hauāuru poll August 2014

Reid Research have done a 500 person poll of Te Tai Hauāuru for Maori TV. Key results are:

Party Vote

  • Labour 36% (-6% from election)
  • Maori Party 23% (+2%)
  • National 12% (+4%)
  • Greens 11% (nc)
  • Internet Mana 11% (+3%)
  • NZ First 7% (-1%)

Electorate Vote

  • Maori Party 32% (-16%)
  • Labour 29% (-1%)
  • Greens 11% (nc)
  • Mana 10% (+1%)

Most important issues (rated 6/10 or higher)

  • Family violence 96%
  • Education 95%
  • Child poverty 95%
  • Cost of living 93%
  • Te Reo Maori 93%
  • Maori unemployment 90%
  • Housing 87%
  • Maori Leadership 81%
  • Mining 62%

If Maori Party balance of power

  • Prefer Labour 63%
  • Prefer National 24%

If National wins, Should Maori Party work with them?

  • Yes 67%
  • No 27%

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3 News Reid Research poll late August 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 20 to 25 August 2014 approx

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 45.0% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 26.3% (-2.6%)
  • Green 13.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.3% (nc)
  • Maori 0.7%  (-0.1%)
  • United Future 0.4% (+0.2%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.1% (+0.1%)
  • NZ First 6.3% (+1.7%)
  • Conservative 4.6% (+2.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 33
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/123 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 17 + Mana/Internet 3 = 53/123 – nine fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 3 = 11/123

On this poll, the centre parties would hold the balance of power. National could govern with NZ First or with the Maori Party (and ACT/UF). Labour could only govern with the Greens, Internet Mana, NZ First and the Maori Party.

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Te Tai Tonga poll

Maori TV have a poll of Te Tai Tonga.

Party Vote:

  • Labour 43% (+4% from election)
  • National 17% (+2%)
  • Maori Party 16% (+2%)
  • Greens 10% (-6%)
  • NZ First 8% (-1%)
  • Internet Mana 6% (nc)

Electorate Vote

  • Labour 48% (+7%)
  • Maori Party 17% (-15%) (Note new candidate, in 2011 candidate was incumbent MP)
  • Greens 9% (-6%)
  • Mana 9% (+1%)

Annoying the news report does not say who did the poll, or the sample size, which is essential to include in any report.

UPDATE: The video does have details thought. It was done by Reid Research and the margin of error suggest around 500 responses.

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NZ Herald DigiPoll mid August 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 12.5%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 656 had a party preference

Dates: 14 to 20 August 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (-4.9%)
  • Labour 25.2% (-1.3%)
  • Green 13.7% (+3.8%)
  • NZ First 4.7% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 0.7% (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.4% (+0.4%)
  • ACT 0.6% (+0.6%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.1% (-0.1%)
  • Conservative 2.6% (+1.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 32
  • Green 18
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/122 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 18 + Mana/Internet 3 = 53/124 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 64.8% (-8.5%)
  • Cunliffe 14.6% (+4.1%)
  • Peters 5.1% (-0.4%)
  • Norman 3.5% (+1.5%)

Leader Approval

  • John Key – 59.6% approve and 16.6% disapprove = +43.0% net approval
  • David Cunliffe – 19.2% approve and 31.9% disapprove = -12.7% net approval

Hager Book

  • 11% say it will cause a lot of damage
  • 43% little damage
  • 25% no damage

Farm Sales to Foreigners

  • 13% no restrictions
  • 33% ban
  • 50%+ approve if it brings advantages such as jobs

Referenda

  • 66% say referenda should be binding on the Government
  • 22% disagree

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Roy Morgan poll early August 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 809 of whom 756 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 4 August to 17 August 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 27.5% (-2.5%)
  • Green 11.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 2.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 34
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 3 = 51/122 – eleven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 3 = 11/121

On this poll National (plus ACT/UFNZ) could govern with either the Maori Party or NZ First while Labour (plus Greens/Mana) could only govern if both NZ First and the Maori Party supported them.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.5% (+3.5%)
  • Wrong 24.5% (-0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (-3.0%)

 

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3 News Reid Research poll August 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 7 to 12 August 2014 approx

Client: 3 News

Report3 News

Party Support

  • National 47.5% (-1.9%)
  • Labour 29.0% (+2.3%)
  • Green 13.0% (+0.6%)
  • ACT 0.3% (+0.2%)
  • Maori 0.8%  (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.2% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 2.0% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 4.6% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 2.5% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 38
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/124 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 17 + Mana/Internet 3 = 58/124 – five fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/124

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 44.1% (+0.3%)
  • Cunliffe 9.9% (-0.1%)
  • Peters 6.7% (+1.4%)

Foreign Ownership

  • 77% want stricter controls on foreign ownership of land, 20% do not
  • 68% against sale of Lochinver Station, 25% in favour

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One News Colmar Brunton poll August 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 824 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 15%

Dates: 9 to 13 August 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-2.0%
  • Green 11.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 0.6% (-0.2%)
  • Maori 0.9% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • Mana/Internet 3.9% (+1.9%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+0.4%)
  • Conservative 2.4% (+0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 31
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 5
  • NZ First 7
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/123 – two more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 13 + Mana/Internet 5 = 49/123 – 13 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 7 = 10/123

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 45% (-3.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 10% (+2%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (+1.0%)

 

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One News Colmar Brunton on Hager allegations

A snap One News Colmar Brunton poll found:

  • 77% have heard of Hager book, 23% have not
  • 28% believe National organised smear campaigns, 43% do not and 29% unsure
  • 9% say revelations have negatively influenced their view of National, 4% positively influences and 82% no difference
  • 12% say now more likely to vote on election day, 1% less likely and 87% no difference

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