Archive for August, 2008

TV3/TNS Poll August 2008

Polling Company: TNS

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 14 August to 20 August 2008

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (nc)
  • Labour 37.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 6.0% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.7%)
  • ACT 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 60
  • Labour 46
  • Green 7
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 3
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 60 + ACT 3 = 63/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 46 + Progressive 1 + Greens 7 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 61/124 = no majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, NZ First and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive in order of ease are Greens, NZ First, Maori Party and United Future.
Preferred PM
  • Key 34.0% (+2.0%)
  • Clark 31.0% (+3.0%)
  • Peters 3.0% (-2.0%)
  • English 3.0% (+2.0%)
Leader Ratings
  • Clark – 63% (+6%) performing well vs 22% (-7%) performing badly
  • Key – 56% (+6%) performing well vs 20% (-3%) performing badly

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Colmar Brunton Poll on National Party

One News has broadcast results from their poll, relating to trust in National:

  • 50% say National is not being open about its plans
  • 37% say they are being open
  • 25% of National’s own supporters say they are not being open
  • 52% against boosting borrowing for infrastructure, 39% agree

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Fairfax poll on NZ First

The Dominion Post reports further results from the Fairfax/Nielsen poll, on the issue of NZ First:

  • 48 per cent of voters believe Peters should be stood down from his ministerial positions over questions surrounding donations to NZ First, with 37% disagreeing and 15% unsure
  • On whether NZ First should be involved in discussions after the election about the formation of the next government, 37% support a Labour doing a deal with NZ First and 52% against. For a deal with National 26% say yes and 54% say no.

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One News/Colmar Brunton August 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,009 total voters and 908 decided voters (3.2% and 3.4% maximum margins of error)

Dates: 9 August to 14 August 2008

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 37.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 3.5% (-2.5%)
  • NZ First 2.6% (+0.2%)
  • Maori 3.1% (+1.4%)
  • United Future 0.7% (+0.7%)
  • ACT 0.6% (-0.6%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 66
  • Labour 48
  • Green 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

  • Key 36.0% (-2.0%)
  • Clark 33.0% (+2.0%)
  • Peters 3.0% (-1.0%)


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Fairfax Poll August 2008

Polling Company: Nielsen

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,102 total voters, 981 decided voters (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 6 to 12 August 2008

Client: Fairfax Media

Report: Stuff and Stuff

Party Support

  • National 54.0% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (nc)
  • Green 4.0% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 70
  • Labour 46
  • Green 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

  • Key 43.0% (+4.0%)
  • Clark 31.0 (-1.0%)
  • Peters 2.0% (-1.0%)
Issues
  • 35% think National can afford significantly bigger tax cuts than Labour, 48% disagree
  • 45% think personal finances get better in next 12 months, 30% worse

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Roy Morgan Poll early August 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 836 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 28 July to 10 August 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 34.0% (+1.5%)
  • Green 7.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (-1.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • Other 0.5% (-0.5%)
Breakdowns are also given for Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Other NI and Other SI.
Projected Seats
  • National 58
  • Labour 41
  • Green 9
  • NZ First 8
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 126
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Country Direction
  • Right 44.5% (+6.0%)
  • Wrong 41.0% (-6.0%)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (nc)

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Tauranga Colmar Brunton One News August 2008 Poll

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone of Tauranga voters

Poll Size: 519 voters (4.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 6 August to 9 August 2008

Client: One News

Report: None yet

Candidate Support

  • Simon Bridges, National 48%
  • Winston Peters, NZ First 28%
  • Anne Pankhurst, Labour 15%

Party Support

  • National 55%
  • Labour 31%
  • NZ First 6%

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