Archive for June, 2011

Roy Morgan poll early June 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 897, of whom 816 have a party preference

Dates: 30 May to 12 June 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (+4.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (-6.0%)
  • Green 7.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 3.0% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 3.0% (+0.5)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 37
  • Green 9
  • ACT 4
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 = 70/121 – 9 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 9 + Mana 1 = 57/122 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.5% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 29.5% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (-2.0%)
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Native Affairs Baseline Te Tai Tokerau Poll June 2011

Polling Company: Baseline

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 508, of whom 439 have a party preference

Dates: 2 June to 9 June 2011

Client: Native Affairs, Maori TV

Report: Not online

By-Election Vote

  • Harawira, Mana – 41%
  • Davis, Labour – 40%
  • Tipene, Maori – 15%

Party Support

  • National 10%
  • Labour 36%
  • Green 6.%
  • ACT 0%
  • Maori 25%
  • NZ First 2%
  • Mana 21%

Coalition Partner (for those who chose Maori or Mana)

  • National 28%
  • Labour 57%

Desired Relationship of Electorate MP to main governing party

  • Work alongside 73%
  • Work separate to 16%

Was by-election justified?

  • Yes 445
  • No 56%

Candidate Impressions

  • Can be trusted – Davis 50% Harawira 38%
  • Deliver on promises – Davis 35% Harawira 38%
  • Knows local needs – Davis 43% Harawira 57%
  • Politically experienced – Davis 39% Harawira 54%
  • Capable leader – Davis 44% Harawira 43%
  • Good in a crisis – Davis 43% Harawira 37%
  • Lots of personality – Davis 26% Harawira 66%

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Roy Morgan Poll late May 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 942, of whom 853 have a party preference

Dates: 16 May to 29 May 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 38.0% (+8.0%)
  • Green 6.5% (-3.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+0.5)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 45
  • Green 8
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – 2 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 45 + Greens 8 + Mana 1 = 54/122 – 8 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.0% (-1.5%)
  • Wrong 28.0% (-2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 17.0% (+3.5%)

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