Roy Morgan poll early June 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 897, of whom 816 have a party preference

Dates: 30 May to 12 June 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 53.0% (+4.0%)
• Labour 30.0% (-6.0%)
• Green 7.0% (+0.5%)
• ACT 3.0% (+1.5%)
• Maori 3.0% (+0.5)
• United Future 0.5% (nc)
• NZ First 2.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 65
• Labour 37
• Green 9
• ACT 4
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 65 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 = 70/121 – 9 more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Greens 9 + Mana 1 = 57/122 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 55.5% (+0.5%)
• Wrong 29.5% (+1.5%)
• Can’t Say 15.0% (-2.0%)

Native Affairs Baseline Te Tai Tokerau Poll June 2011

Polling Company: Baseline

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 508, of whom 439 have a party preference

Dates: 2 June to 9 June 2011

Client: Native Affairs, Maori TV

Report: Not online

By-Election Vote

• Harawira, Mana – 41%
• Davis, Labour – 40%
• Tipene, Maori – 15%

Party Support

• National 10%
• Labour 36%
• Green 6.%
• ACT 0%
• Maori 25%
• NZ First 2%
• Mana 21%

Coalition Partner (for those who chose Maori or Mana)

• National 28%
• Labour 57%

Desired Relationship of Electorate MP to main governing party

• Work alongside 73%
• Work separate to 16%

Was by-election justified?

• Yes 445
• No 56%

Candidate Impressions

• Can be trusted – Davis 50% Harawira 38%
• Deliver on promises – Davis 35% Harawira 38%
• Knows local needs – Davis 43% Harawira 57%
• Politically experienced – Davis 39% Harawira 54%
• Capable leader – Davis 44% Harawira 43%
• Good in a crisis – Davis 43% Harawira 37%
• Lots of personality – Davis 26% Harawira 66%

Roy Morgan Poll late May 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 942, of whom 853 have a party preference

Dates: 16 May to 29 May 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 49.0% (-4.0%)
• Labour 38.0% (+8.0%)
• Green 6.5% (-3.5%)
• ACT 1.5% (-0.5%)
• Maori 2.5% (+0.5)
• United Future 0.5% (nc)
• NZ First 2.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 61
• Labour 45
• Green 8
• ACT 2
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 61 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – 2 more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 45 + Greens 8 + Mana 1 = 54/122 – 8 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 55.0% (-1.5%)
• Wrong 28.0% (-2.0%)
• Can’t Say 17.0% (+3.5%)