Archive for December, 2012

3 News Reid Research Poll November 2012

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 24 to 30 November 2012

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (-1.8%)
  • Labour 34.6% (+1.6%)
  • Green 12.9% (+2.3%)
  • ACT 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 1.0%  (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.1% (-0.9%)
  • NZ First 2.0% (-1.2%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 43
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/124 – two fewer than minimum 63 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 43 + Greens 16 + Mana 1 = 60/122 – three fewer than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 37.4% (-3.6%)
  • Shearer 12.6% (+4.1%)
  • Peters 5.0% (nc)
  • Norman 2.2% (-0.2%)

Leadership Performance Ratings

  • John Key – 51.9% (-3.1%) well and 29.4% (-1.0%) poor = +22.5% net well (-2.1%)
  • David Shearer – 31.6% (-1.9%) well and 34.4% (+2.9%) poor = -2.8% net well (-4.1%)

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One News Colmar Brunton November 2012

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds:

Dates: 24 to 29 November 2012

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (+3.0%)
  • Green 13.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.4%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-1.2%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.8%)
  • Mana 0.0% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 4.0% (-0.9%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 45
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/121 – 5 less than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 45 + Greens 17 + Mana 1= 63/121 -1 more than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 39% (-3.0%)
  • David Shearer 15% (+4.0%)

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