One New Colmar Brunton on Coalitions

One News reports:

• 79% agree the party with the most votes should lead Government
• 15% disagree
• 47% want National or Labour to govern alone
• 47% want them to govern in coalition with other parties

Roy Morgan Poll mid October 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 743 (3.7% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 06 October to 19 October 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 43.0% (+2.5%)
• Labour 32.0% (-5.5%)
• Green 11.5% (+2.5%)
• NZ First 4.5% (+0.5%)
• Maori 2.5% (+0.5%)
• United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
• ACT 3.5% (nc)
• Progressive 0.5% (-0.5%)
• Other 2.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 55
• Labour 41
• Green 15
• NZ First 0
• Maori 6
• United Future 1
• ACT 4
• Progressive 1
• Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• National 55 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 + Maori 6 = 66/123 – majority possible
• Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 15 + Maori 6 = 63/123 = majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Country Direction

• Right 53.0% (+5.0%)
• Wrong 34.5% (-5.0%)
• Can’t Say 12.5% (-2.5%)

Herald Digipoll October 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 respondents of whom 657 (12.4% are undecided) were decided, (3.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 15 October to 22 October 2008

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald main story

Party Support

• National 50.4% (-1.0%)
• Labour 37.0% (+1.3%)
• Green 5.4% (+0.5%)
• NZ First 2.1% (-0.7%)
• Maori 2.4% (+0.5%)
• United Future 0.2% (-0.2%)
• ACT 1.2% (+0.1%)
• Progressive 0.3% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

• National 63
• Labour 46
• Green 7
• NZ First 0
• Maori 6
• United Future 1
• ACT 1
• Progressive 1
• Total 125

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• National 63/125 – majority possible
• Labour 46 + Progressive 1 + Greens 7 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 61/125 = no majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

• Key 44.8 (-0.7%)
• Clark 45.4% (+2.3%)
• Peters 4.0% (-1.6%)

Most influential issue

• Economy 34.6% (+6.6%)

TV3/TNS Poll mid October 2008

Polling Company: TNS

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: estimated to be 15 October to 20 October 2008

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

• National 45.1% (+0.1%)
• Labour 37.4% (-1.8%)
• Green 8.8% (+2.0%)
• NZ First 3.5% (+0.8%)
• Maori 2.3% (-0.2%)
• United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
• ACT 1.7% (-0.1%)
• Progressive 0.1% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 47
• Green 11
• NZ First 0
• Maori 6
• United Future 1
• ACT 2
• Progressive 1
• Total 125

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• National 57 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 + Maori 6 = 66/125 – majority possible
• National 57 + Maori 6 = 63/125 – majority possible
• Labour 47 + Progressive 1 + Greens 11 + Maori 6  = 65/125 = majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

• Key 33.6% (+2.6%)
• Clark 33.6% (+2.0%)

One News Colmar Brunton on Economic Management

The One News Colmar Brunton poll asked respondents who they blame for NZ’s economic strife:

• 35% say international forces
• 14% say NZ Govt
• 49% say both

On the issue of who they most trust to manage the economy:

• 48% John Key
• 41% Helen Clark

Waiariki Marae-Digipoll October 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Waiariki voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 24 September to 14 October 2008

Client: Marae

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

• Labour 33.8%
• Maori Party 48.9%
• NZ First 6.3%
• National 6.3%
• Green 1.4%

Candidate Support

• Mita Ririnui, Labour 22.2%
• Te Ururoa Flavell, Maori Party 72.8%

Preferred PM

• Helen Clark 48.2%
• Winston Peters 5.2%
• Pita Sharples 3.5%
• John Key 6.1%
• Tariana Turia 7.6%

Country Direction

• Right 46.9%
• No 35.3%
• Don’t Know 17.8%

Te Ururoa Flavell Performance

• Very Satisfied 28.3%
• Satisfied 56.3%
• Not Satisfied 5.4%
• Don’t Know 9.8%

Most effective Maori MP

• Te Ururoa Flavell 27.9%
• Pita Sharples 20.1%
• Hone Harawira 5.6%
• Tariana Turia 6.8%
• Winston Peters 7.3%

Most important issue

• Maori/Treaty 21.7%
• Education 14.7%
• Law & Order 7.2%
• Health 10.4%
• Family Issues 6.8%

Coalitions

• Maori Party coalition with Labour – 74.3% support, 19.4% do not
• Maori Party coalition with National – 24.2% support, 65.8% do not

Identity

• New Zealander First 10.5%
• Maori first 73.0%
• Both 16.2%

Te Tai Hauauru Marae-Digipoll October 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Te Tai Hauauru voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 24 September to 14 October 2008

Client: Marae

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

• Labour 42.5%
• Maori Party 44.0%
• NZ First 1.9%
• National 7.7%
• Green 2.1%

Candidate Support

• Errol Mason, Labour 15.1%
• Tariana Turia, Maori Party 77.7%

Preferred PM

• Helen Clark 46.8%
• Tariana Turia 10.5%
• Pita Sharples 8.5%
• John Key 6.1%
• Winston Peters 3.7%

Country Direction

• Right 50.9%
• No 32.8%
• Don’t Know 16.2%

Tariana Turia Performance

• Very Satisfied 29.7%
• Satisfied 50.8%
• Not Satisfied 8.1%
• Don’t Know 11.3%

Most effective Maori MP

• Tariana Turia 26.8%
• Pita Sharples 23.2%
• Hone Harawira 6.8%
• Winston Peters 5.7%

Most important issue

• Maori/Treaty 16.9%
• Health 13.0%
• Family Issues 11.2%
• Education 9.5%
• Law & Order 6.6%
• Unemployment 5.8%

Coalitions

• Maori Party coalition with Labour – 77.4% support, 15.0% do not
• Maori Party coalition with National – 28.7% support, 60.4% do not

Identity

• New Zealander First 9.0%
• Maori first 72.8%
• Both 17.7%

One News Colmar Brunton Poll 19 October 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,003 total voters and 861 decided voters (3.2% and 3.5% maximum margins of error) as 9% unsure or refused on party vote.

Dates: 11 October to 16 October 2008

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

• National 50.0% (-1.0%)
• Labour 36.0% (+3.0%)
• Green 5.0% (-3.0%)
• NZ First 2.1% (-0.5%)
• Maori 2.1% (-0.7%)
• United Future 0.5% (+0.4%)
• ACT 2.1% (+0.5%)
• Progressive 0.5% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 62
• Labour 44
• Green 6
• NZ First 0
• Maori 6
• United Future 1
• ACT3
• Progressive 1
• Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• National 62 = 62/123 – majority possible
• Labour 44 + Progressive 1 + Greens 6 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 58/124 = no majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive, Greens and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

• Key 40.0% (+1.0%)
• Clark 34.0% (+3.0%)
• Peters 2.0% (nc)

Fairfax Poll October 2008

Polling Company: Nielsen

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,160 total voters,  (2.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 08 to 14 October 2008 (estimated)

Client: Fairfax Media

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 51.0% (-1.0%)
• Labour 33.0% (-1.0%)
• Green 7.0% (+2.0%)
• NZ First 3.0% (nc)
• Maori 2.0% (-1.0%)
• United Future 1.0% (+1.0%)
• ACT 1.0% (nc)
• Progressive 0.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 64
• Labour 42
• Green 9
• NZ First 0
• Maori 6
• United Future 1
• ACT 1
• Progressive 1
• Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• National 64 = 64/124 – majority possible
• Labour 42 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 59/124 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

• John Key 43.0% (+2.0%)
• Helen Clark 35.0% (+5.0%)
• Winston Peters 1.0% (-1.0%)

Te Tai Tokerau Marae Digipoll October 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Te Tai Tokerau voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 15 September to 7 October 2008

Client: Marae

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

• Labour 34.5%
• Maori Party 46.8%
• NZ First 5.6%
• National 6.4%
• Green 2.5%

Candidate Support

• Kelvin Davis, Labour 25.8%
• Hone Harawira, Maori Party 69.0%
• Greens 3.4%

Preferred PM

• Helen Clark 41.4%
• Winston Peters 9.9%
• Pita Sharples 5.5%
• John Key 4.7%
• Tariana Turia 5.7%

Country Direction

• Right 49.3%
• No 36.8%
• Don’t Know 13.8%

Hone Harawira Performance

• Very Satisfied 28.0%
• Satisfied 50.1%
• Not Satisfied 14.3%
• Don’t Know 7.6%

Most effective Maori MP

• Pita Sharples 15.2%
• Hone Harawira 31.2%
• Tariana Turia 7.4%
• Winston Peters 6.3%
• Shane Jones 5.6%
• Parekura Horomia 1.8%
• Dover Samuels 1.4%
• Nanaia Mahuta 1.2%
• Te Ururoa Flavell 1.2%

Most important issue

• Maori/Treaty 19.3%
• Education 13.5%
• Law & Order 5.9%
• Health 11.2%
• Family Issues 6.8%

Coalitions

• Maori Party coalition with Labour – 70.9% support, 17.3% do not
• Maori Party coalition with National – 25.4% support, 60.3% do not

Identity

• New Zealander First 10.5%
• Maori first 76.3%
• Both 12.4%