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Roy Morgan poll March 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 896 of whom 865 have a party preference

Undecideds: 3.5%

Dates: 02 March to 15 March 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Scoop

Party Support

  • National 46.5% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 31.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 11.0% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (nc)
  • Maori 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 38
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 = 52/121 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 9/121

On this poll the centre parties would hold the balance of power. National would need either the Maori Party or NZ First to govern, while Labour would need both of them.

Country Direction

  • Right 64.5% (+9.5%)
  • Wrong 24.0% (-7.0%)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-2.5%)

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NZ Herald DigiPoll December 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds:

Poll Size: 750 respondents

Dates: 05 December to 18 December 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.4% (+2.2%)
  • Labour 28.9% (+3.0%)
  • Green 9.5% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 5.6% (-2.8%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.4%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • ACT 0.4% (-0.1%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-0.8%)
  • Conservative 2.9% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 36
  • Green 12
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/122 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 12 = 48/122 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 9/122

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 65.0% (+0.7%)
  • Little 13.6% (-2.6% from Cunliffe)

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NZ Herald DigiPoll 17 September 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 5.6%

Poll Size: 775 respondents, of whom 732 had a party preference

Dates: 11 September to 17 September 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 48.2% (-0.4%)
  • Labour 25.9% (+1.3%)
  • Green 11.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 8.4% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 1.1% (+0.4%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.2%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.2%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.0% (-1.3%)
  • Conservative 3.3% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 32
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 1
  • NZ First 11
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/123 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 1 = 47/123 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 11 + Maori 3 = 14/123

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 64.3% (+2.7%)
  • Cunliffe 16.2% (-1.7%)
  • Peters 9.1% (+1.3%)
  • Norman 3.4% (+0.1%)

 

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3 News Reid Research poll August 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 7 to 12 August 2014 approx

Client: 3 News

Report3 News

Party Support

  • National 47.5% (-1.9%)
  • Labour 29.0% (+2.3%)
  • Green 13.0% (+0.6%)
  • ACT 0.3% (+0.2%)
  • Maori 0.8%  (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.2% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 2.0% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 4.6% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 2.5% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 38
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/124 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 17 + Mana/Internet 3 = 58/124 – five fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/124

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 44.1% (+0.3%)
  • Cunliffe 9.9% (-0.1%)
  • Peters 6.7% (+1.4%)

Foreign Ownership

  • 77% want stricter controls on foreign ownership of land, 20% do not
  • 68% against sale of Lochinver Station, 25% in favour

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One News Colmar Brunton poll August 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 824 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 15%

Dates: 9 to 13 August 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-2.0%
  • Green 11.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 0.6% (-0.2%)
  • Maori 0.9% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • Mana/Internet 3.9% (+1.9%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+0.4%)
  • Conservative 2.4% (+0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 31
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 5
  • NZ First 7
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/123 – two more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 13 + Mana/Internet 5 = 49/123 – 13 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 7 = 10/123

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 45% (-3.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 10% (+2%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (+1.0%)

 

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3 News Reid Research poll July 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: June 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 8 to 16 July 2014

Client: 3 News

Report3 News

Party Support

  • National 49.4% (-0.3%)
  • Labour 26.7% (-0.6%)
  • Green 12.4% (-0.3%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 1.1%  (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.2%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.3% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 4.3% (+0.7%)
  • Conservative 2.7% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 35
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/124 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 16 + Mana/Internet 2 = 54/124 – nine fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 0/124

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 43.8% (-2.9%)
  • Cunliffe 9.5% (-0.1%)

Mana/Internet

  • 59% oppose Labour working with Internet Mana to form a Government
  • 29% support

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One News Colmar Brunton Poll March 2012

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds:

Dates: assume 25 March to 29 March 2012

Client: One News

Report: One News

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 29.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 11.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 1% (-0.7%)
  • Maori 1% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 0% (-0.1%)
  • Mana 1% (NC)
  • NZ First 3% (-1.2%)
  • Conservative 1% (-1.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 38
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/123 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 + Mana 1= 53/122 -9 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 48% (-4%)
  • David Shearer 11% (-4% from Goff)

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