Posts Tagged Maori

Te Karere DigiPoll January 2013

Te Karere Digipoll have done a poll of 1,000 Maori votes between 7 and 30 January 2013

The changes are from the last poll in January 2012, or for electorate vote from the November 2011 election.

Party Vote – All Maori voters

  • Labour 33.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 27.5% (+2.5%)
  • National 9.1% (+0.7%)
  • Greens 7.8% (-0.2%)
  • NZ First 6.2% (-0.4%)
  • Mana 5.7% (-4.3%)
  • Don’t Know 9.9% (+2.7%)

Party Vote – Maori voters on Maori roll

  • Labour 34.1% (+3.5%)
  • Maori 33.0% (+2.7%)
  • National 4.8% (-1.7%)
  • Greens 7.4% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 5.8% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 7.6% (-5.3%)
  • Don’t Know 7.0% (+0.6%)

Party Vote – Maori voters on General Roll

  • Labour 32.4% (-13.1%)
  • Maori 15.4% (+7.7%)
  • National 18.2% (+3.7%)
  • Greens 8.5% (+0.3%)
  • NZ First 6.9% (-4.0%)
  • Mana 1.6% (+0.2%)
  • Don’t Know 16.0% (+8.8%)

Electorate Vote – Maori voters on Maori Roll

  • Maori 36.3% (+4.8%)
  • Labour 31.8% (-8.9%)
  • Mana 8.9% (-12.2%)
  • National 5.0% (+5.0%)
  • NZ First 3.9% (+3.9%)
  • Green 3.8% (-1.1%)

Labour Leader Name Awareness amongst those voting Labour

  • David Shearer 34.7%
  • Others 2.4%
  • Don’t Know 62.9%

Agreement that David Shearer provides good leadership on Maori issues amongst those voting Labour and know he is leader.

  • Agree 28.0%
  • Disagree 40.7%
  • Don’t Know 31.4%

Government Direction

  • Right 16%
  • Wrong 73%

Agreement that John Key provides good leadership on Maori issues

  • Agree 9%
  • Disagree 85%

Maori Party voters on do you support or oppose the Maori Party working in a formal relationship with the National Party?

  • Support 56%
  • Opoose 37%
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Waiariki poll November 2011

Digipoll did a poll of 400 respondents in the Waiariki electorate for Te Karere.

Party Vote

  • Maori 40%
  • Labour 28%
  • Mana 15%
  • National 9%
  • NZ First 5%
  • Greens 3%

Electorate Vote

  • Te Ururoa Flavell (Maori) 56%
  • Louis Te Kani (Labour) 22%
  • Annette Sykes (Mana) 22%

Preferred PM

  • John Key 19%
  • Pita Sharples 9%
  • Phil Goff 7%
  • Shane Jones 6%
  • Hone Harawira 6%
  • Tariana Turia 4%

Government Direction

  • Right 27%
  • Wrong 60%

Most favoured Maori MP

  • Te Ururoa Flavell 27%
  • Pita Sharples 15%
  • Hone Harawira 13%
  • Tariana Turia 9%
  • Shane Jones 5%
  • Metiria Turei 2%

Most Important Issue

  • Jobs 16%
  • Education 12%
  • Environment 9%
  • Economy 9%

Well being

  • Better Off 21%
  • Worse Off 44%
  • No difference 35%

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Tamaki Makaurau poll October 2011

Digipoll did a poll of 400 respondents in the Tamaki Makaurau electorate for Te Karere.

Party Vote

  • Labour 32%
  • Maori 28%
  • National 17%
  • Mana 13%
  • Greens 5%
  • NZ First 4%

Electorate Vote

  • Pita Sharples (Maori) 58%
  • Shane Jones (Labour) 23%
  • Kereama Pene (Mana) 14%
  • Mikaere Curtis (Greens) 3%

Preferred PM

  • John Key 28%
  • Pita Sharples 13%
  • Phil Goff 7%
  • Shane Jones 7%
  • Hone Harawira 7%
  • Tariana Turia 3%

Government Direction

  • Right 27%
  • Wrong 59%

Most favoured Maori MP

  • Pita Sharples 36%
  • Hone Harawira 20%
  • Shane Jones 11%
  • Winston Peters 4%
  • Metiria Turei 4%
  • Parekura Horomia 4%

Most Important Issue

  • Education 12%
  • Employment 16%
  • Economy 10%
  • Health 9%

Well being

  • Better Off 27%
  • Worse Off 43%
  • No difference 30%

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Marae Digipoll September 2011

Marae Digipoll have done a poll of 1,000 Maori votes. 655 were from the Maori roll and 345 from the general roll.

The margin of errors are 3.2%, 3.9% and 5.4% respectively. The average no of respondents per Maori electorate is 94 which has a margin of error of 10.4%.

Party Vote – All Maori voters

  • Labour 38.4%
  • Maori 22.2%
  • National 16.4%
  • Mana 8.5%
  • Green 6.5%
  • NZ First 5.1%
  • ACT 1.0%

Party Vote – General roll Maori voters

  • Labour 43.5%
  • Maori 11.7%
  • National 22.4%
  • Mana 1.6%
  • Green 8.1%
  • NZ First 7.1%
  • ACT 2.9%

Party Vote – Maori roll Maori voters (2008 result in brackets)

  • Labour 35.7% (50.1%)
  • Maori 27.7% (28.9%)
  • National 13.2% (7.4%)
  • Mana 12.0%
  • Green 5.6% (3.9%)
  • NZ First 4.1% (6.1%)
  • ACT 0.0% (0.5%)

Electorate Vote (all 7 electorates)

  • Maori 37.5%
  • Labour 35.1%
  • Mana 13.8%
  • National 5.6%
  • Green 2.5%
  • NZ First 2.5%

Te Tai Tokerau

  • Labour 30.2%
  • Mana 28.6%
  • Maori 22.2%

Tamaki Makaurau

  • Maori 46.1%
  • Labour 30.4%
  • Mana 15.7%

Waiariki

  • Maori 59.3%
  • Mana 18.7%
  • Labour 8.8%

Te Tai Tonga

  • Labour 41.4%%
  • Maori 34.5%
  • Mana 3.4%

Tainui

  • Labour 58.8%%
  • Maori 12.9%
  • Mana 17.6%

Te Tai Hauauru

  • Labour 40.3%%
  • Maori 48.6%%
  • Mana 1.4%

Ikaroa Rawhiti

  • Labour 40.5%%
  • Maori 31.6%
  • NZ First 10.1%
  • Mana 8.9%

With the high margin of error, one can work out the probability that a candidate in the seat is actually in the lead. They are:

  • Te Tai Tokerau – Labour ahead with 58% probability
  • Tamaki Makaurau – Maori Party ahead with 96% probability
  • Waiariki – Maori Party ahead with 100% probability
  • Te Tai Tonga – Labour ahead with 78% probability
  • Tainui – Labour ahead with 1005 probability
  • Te Tai Hauauru – Maori Party ahead with 80% probability
  • Ikaroa Rawhiti – Labour ahead with 85% probability

Has Maori Party represented Maori well?

  • Yes 56%
  • No 34%

Support Maori Party decision to vote for Marine and Coastal Area Bill?

  • Yes 54%
  • No 28%

Accept Maori Party position that compromise worthwhile to ensure seat at Cabinet table?

  • Yes 69%
  • No 21%

Agree with Harawira that Maori Party lacks energy and candidates too old?

  • Yes 35%
  • No 54%

Should Shane Jones take over from Phil Goff as Labour Leader?

  • Yes 47%
  • No 31%

Has traditional voter support for Labour dropped?

  • Yes 77%
  • No 9%

Can Hone Harawira effectively lead Mana Party?

  • Yes 55%
  • No 35%

Which Maori MP best represents views of Maori?

  • Pita Sharples 22%
  • Tariana Turia 20%
  • Hone Harawira 11%
  • Winston Peters 3.8%
  • Shane Jones 3.6%

Preferred PM

  • John Key 33%
  • Pita Sharples 7%
  • Tariana Turia 4.8%
  • Phil Goff 4.4%
  • Hone Harawira 3.9%
  • Winston Peters 3.7%
  • Shane Jones 2.8%

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NZ Herald Digipoll July 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 11.2%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 666 had a party vote preference

Dates: 19 to 27 July 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 52.3% (+1.1%)
  • Labour 33.1% (-3.0%)
  • Green 8.3% (+1.7%)
  • NZ First 0.9% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.4% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.6% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 41
  • Green 10
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Mana 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 67/124 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 10 + Mana 1 = 52/124 -10 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 70.3% (-0.3%)
  • Goff 9.3% (-2.6%)
  • Peters 2.9% (-2.5%)
  • Clark 7.9% (+3.8%)

Direction

  • Right 57.5%
  • Wrong 33.8%
  • Unsure 8.7%

Capital Gains Tax

  • Strongly favour 16.5%
  • Moderately favour 21.4%
  • No opinion 22.8%
  • Moderately against 16%
  • Strongly against 21.5%
  • More likely to vote Labour 22.1%
  • Less likely to vote Labour 14.4%
  • No difference 61.3%
Asset Sales
  • Strongly favour 7.2%
  • Moderately favour 19.8%
  • No opinion 15.5%
  • Moderately against 22.1%
  • Strongly against 34.5%
Debt Repayment Preferences
  • CGT 43.1%
  • Asset part-sales 34.4%
SAS in Afghanistan
  • Remain beyond March 2012 23.1%
  • Withdraw as scheduled 63.3%

Maori

  • Too much say 42.2%
  • Too little say 13.2%
  • About the right amount 39.8%
Women paid less because they are women
  • Yes 54.2%
  • No 36.4%

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Native Affairs Baseline Te Tai Tokerau Poll June 2011

Polling Company: Baseline

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 508, of whom 439 have a party preference

Dates: 2 June to 9 June 2011

Client: Native Affairs, Maori TV

Report: Not online

By-Election Vote

  • Harawira, Mana – 41%
  • Davis, Labour – 40%
  • Tipene, Maori – 15%

Party Support

  • National 10%
  • Labour 36%
  • Green 6.%
  • ACT 0%
  • Maori 25%
  • NZ First 2%
  • Mana 21%

Coalition Partner (for those who chose Maori or Mana)

  • National 28%
  • Labour 57%

Desired Relationship of Electorate MP to main governing party

  • Work alongside 73%
  • Work separate to 16%

Was by-election justified?

  • Yes 445
  • No 56%

Candidate Impressions

  • Can be trusted – Davis 50% Harawira 38%
  • Deliver on promises – Davis 35% Harawira 38%
  • Knows local needs – Davis 43% Harawira 57%
  • Politically experienced – Davis 39% Harawira 54%
  • Capable leader – Davis 44% Harawira 43%
  • Good in a crisis – Davis 43% Harawira 37%
  • Lots of personality – Davis 26% Harawira 66%

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One News Colmar Brunton Poll May 2011

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Around 1,000

Dates: to 21 to 25 May 2011

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 6.0% (-2.0%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+1.2%)
  • Maori 1.4% (-0.9%)
  • United Future ?
  • Mana 0.9%
  • NZ First 1.6% (-2.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 42
  • Green 7
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/123 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 7 + Mana 1= 50/123 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 53% (-2%)
  • Phil Goff 8% (-3%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 48% (+10%)
  • Worse 33% (-12%)
Budget
  • 4% feel better off, 62% the same and 29% worse off
  • 42% support KiwiSaver changes, 50% opposed
  • 31% say Budget will improve economy, 41% no change and 20% will be negative for economy
Racism
  • 21% say NZ has a great deal of racism
  • 55% say some racism
  • 20% say only a little racism
  • 3% say no racism
Maori Rights
  • 45% say Maori have more rights than other New Zealanders
  • 48% say the same rights
  • 6% say less rights

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