Roy Morgan Poll mid October 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 951 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 05 October to 18 October 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 7.5% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 3.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 37
  • Green 9
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/121 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 47/121 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 67.5% (-4.5%)
  • Wrong 21.5% (+5.0%)
  • Can’t Say 11.0% (-0.5%)
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