One News Colmar Brunton Poll 19 October 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,003 total voters and 861 decided voters (3.2% and 3.5% maximum margins of error) as 9% unsure or refused on party vote.

Dates: 11 October to 16 October 2008

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 36.0% (+3.0%)
  • Green 5.0% (-3.0%)
  • NZ First 2.1% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.1% (-0.7%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.4%)
  • ACT 2.1% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 44
  • Green 6
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT3
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 62 = 62/123 – majority possible
  • Labour 44 + Progressive 1 + Greens 6 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 58/124 = no majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive, Greens and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 40.0% (+1.0%)
  • Clark 34.0% (+3.0%)
  • Peters 2.0% (nc)
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