Archive for October, 2008

Tamaki Makaurau Marae Digipoll October 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Tamaki Makaurau voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 15 September to 7 October 2008

Client: Marae

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • Labour 37.5%
  • Maori Party 41.2%
  • NZ First 7.3%
  • National 5.9%
  • Green 4.0%

Candidate Support

  • Louisa Wall, Labour 13.5%
  • Pita Sharples, Maori Party 77.4%
  • Mikaere Curtis, Greens 6.5%
Preferred PM
  • Helen Clark 39.0%
  • Winston Peters 10.2%
  • Pita Sharples 7.2%
  • John Key 6.7%
  • Tariana Turia 5.9%
Country Direction
  • Right 46.5%
  • No 39.7%
  • Don’t Know 13.8%
Pita Sharples Performance
  • Very Satisfied 26.2%
  • Satisfied 54.1%
  • Not Satisfied 9.4%
  • Don’t Know 10.4%
Most effective Maori MP
  • Pita Sharples 32.8%
  • Hone Harawira 12.1%
  • Tariana Turia 9.0%
  • Winston Peters 7.0%
  • Parekura Horomia 4.6%
  • Shane Jones 2.8%
  • Tau Henare 1.6%
  • Dover Samuels 1.5%
  • Nanaia Mahuta 1.2%
  • Te Ururoa Flavell 1.0%
  • Georgina te Heuheu 1.0%
Most important issue
  • Education 16.8%
  • Law & Order 15.1%
  • Maori/Treaty 11.7%
  • Health 9.5%
  • Family Issues 8.0%
Coalitions
  • Maori Party coalition with Labour – 71.3% support, 20.6% do not
  • Maori Party coalition with National – 27.7% support, 63.8% do not
Identity
  • New Zealander First 15.4%
  • Maori first 72.2%
  • Both 11.8%

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One News Colmar Brunton Poll 12 October 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,008 total voters and 860 decided voters (3.2% and 3.5% maximum margins of error)

Dates: 4 October to 09 October 2008

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (nc)
  • Green 8.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 2.6% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 2.8% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.6%)
  • ACT 1.6% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.3% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 41
  • Green 10
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 63 = 63/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 59/124 = no majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 39.0% (-2.0%)
  • Clark 31.0% (nc)
  • Peters 2.0% (-1.0%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 38.0% (-3.0%)
  • Worse 42.0% (+4.0%)
  • Same 20.0% (-2.0%)

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TV3/TNS Poll early October 2008

Polling Company: TNS

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: estimated to be 3 October to 8 October 2008

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 45.0% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 39.0% (+3.0%)
  • Green 6.8% (+1.8%)
  • NZ First 2.7% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 1.8% (-0.2%)
  • Progressive 0.1% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 49
  • Green 9
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 125

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 57 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 + Maori 6 = 66/125 – majority possible
  • National 57 + Maori 6 = 63/125 – majority possible
  • Labour 49 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 + Maori 6  = 65/125 = majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 31.0% (-3.0%)
  • Clark 31.6% (-0.4%)

Trust to Manage Economy

  • Labour/Cullen 42.7%
  • National/English 41.2%

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Roy Morgan

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 923 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 22 September to 05 Friday 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 40.5% (-7.0%)
  • Labour 37.5% (+1.0%)
  • Green 9.0% (+2.5%)
  • NZ First 4.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 3.5% (+2.0%)
  • Progressive 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • Other 1.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 52
  • Labour 48
  • Green 11
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 4
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 52 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 + Maori 6 = 63/123 – majority possible
  • National 57 + ACT4 + Maori 6 = 62/123 – majority possible
  • Labour 48 + Progressive 1 + Greens 11 + Maori 6 = 66/123 = majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 48.0% (+4.0%)
  • Wrong 39.5% (-1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (-2.5%)

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Maori Voters Poll

Polling Company: TNS

Poll Method: Random Phone of Maori voters on general and Maori rolls (exact mix unknown)

Poll Size: 420 total voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 18 September to 28 September 2008

Client: Maori TV

Report: Not online yet

Party Support

  • National 15.0%
  • Labour 52.0%
  • Green 5.0%
  • NZ First 5.0%
  • Maori 20.0%
  • United Future <1%
  • ACT <1%
  • Progressive
Preferred PM
  • Helen Clark 38%
  • John Key 10%
  • Winston Peters 10%
  • Pita Sharples 4%
  • Tariana Turia 3%
Performance
  • Clark performing well or very well – 70%
  • Key performing well or very well – 36%
Coalitions
  • 53% think National would choose Maori Party over ACT, Greens or NZ First
  • 69% thought Key would do a deal with NZ First if he had no other choices available

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One News Colmar Brunton Poll on Trust

One News reported a Colmar Brunton poll on the level of trust in various political leaders.

  1. Jeanette Fitzsimons 64%
  2. Helen Clark 59%
  3. John Key 57%
  4. Pita Sharples 54%
  5. Rodney Hide 50%
  6. Winston Peters 19%

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One News Colmar Brunton Poll early October 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,010 total voters and 877 decided voters (3.2% and 3.5% maximum margins of error)

Dates: 27 September to 02 October 2008

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 7.0% (+2.0%)
  • NZ First 2.0% (+0.2%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+0.7%)
  • United Future 0.7% (+0.7%)
  • ACT 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.3% (+0.3%)
Projected Seats
  • National 64
  • Labour 41
  • Green 9
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 64 = 64/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 58/124 = no majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 41.0% (+1.0%)
  • Clark 31.0% (nc)
  • Peters 3.0% (nc)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 41.0% (-9.0%)
  • Worse 38.0% (+11.0%)
  • Same 22.0% (-1.0%)

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