Archive for Local Body Polls

New Plymouth mayoralty poll

Stuff reports:

New Plymouth looks to have a true mayoral race on its hands, with challenger Andrew Judd edging ahead of incumbent Harry Duynhoven in a poll taken this week.

In the random telephone survey of 477 New Plymouth voters, 20 per cent supported Mr Duynhoven, while his main challenger, businessman and current councillor Andrew Judd, secured 23 per cent.

The poll indicated Hamilton-born businessman Craig Percy and local man Chris Wilkes, who is standing on an environmental platform, were outsiders in the race, with two per cent and one per cent of support respectively.

But it’s early days and 53 per cent of those who took part in the Taranaki Daily News poll were either undecided or ambivalent about the election.

The poll had a 70 per cent response rate and a margin of error of 4.47 per cent.

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Christchurch Mayoralty poll

The Press reports:

Mayoral candidate Lianne Dalziel is dominating the latest Press poll, but rival Paul Lonsdale is vowing to fight on.

The Press/Research First poll found 78 per cent of those polled supported Dalziel to Lonsdale’s 19 per cent.

Another  1 per cent did not know who their preferred candidate was, while Tubby Hansen and Brad Maxwell both received  1 per cent support, and another  1 per cent did not know who their preferred candidate was. …

The polling company questioned 763 Christchurch people from September 17 to 25.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 per cent. However, for the question about which candidate they preferred 541 were canvassed with a margin for error of 3.5 per cent, as it excluded those who would definitely not be able to choose.

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Hamilton Mayor poll

The Waikato Times reports:

The new poll puts Ms Hardaker’s support at 20 per cent, then Ewan Wilson with 10 per cent and Dave Macpherson at 6 per cent, but critically stages undecided voters – 49 per cent of those polled – as mayor-makers.

 

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Auckland Mayoral poll

Radio Live report:

The latest UMR research poll indicates a strong majority for Len Brown in the upcoming Mayoral election – the current Mayor sitting on a cool 47 percent of the total vote, 66 percent of the decided vote.

New challenger John Palino is in second place, with 14 percent of the total vote and 20 percent of the decided vote. MANA Party secretary John Minto is third, with five and seven percent respectively.

 

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Wellington Mayoralty poll

NewstalkZB reports:

A Newstalk ZB Media Research poll released today shows at this stage it’s a fight between incumbent mayor Celia Wade-Brown and councillor John Morrison for the Wellington mayoralty.

Wade-Brown has 31.67% of popular support to continue as mayor, while Morrison is close behind with 25.22%.  Jack Yan came in a distant third with 4.15%. 

A significant 28.38% of the electorate remains undecided.

 

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Christchurch Mayoralty poll

The Press reports:

A Press Research First poll has revealed that nearly a third of Christchurch voters are undecided and another third of the electorate could also be up for grabs.

The poll was taken before Christchurch Mayor Bob Parker announced he was not going to stand for another term.

It found that Parker was attracting only 20 per cent of the vote, Labour MP Lianne Dalziel was winning 48 per cent, while 32 per cent of people were undecided.

The poll also shows that 40 per cent of people who said they would vote for Dalziel were doing so because they wanted a change or were unhappy with Parker.

About 41 per cent of the mayoral choices were tactical in some way, meaning they were voting against the other candidate rather than for their choice.

Of those that had chosen a candidate, 70 per cent favoured Dalziel and 30 per cent supported Parker.

Another story states:

Christchurch people have given their city councillors the worst rating ever seen by a polling company, but do not want the Government to take over, a new survey says.

The Press Research First poll has found widespread disillusionment with councillors and the mayor over their leadership since 2010. The main complaint was dysfunction and lack of unity.

The poll asked Christchurch residents to rate the performance of council leadership on a scale from zero to 10, with zero being very poor. About 60 per cent of people gave council leadership a score lower than five. …

The poll also found that Christchurch people do not want the Government to take over council leadership as it did with Environment Canterbury in 2010.

About 51 per cent of those polled said they disagreed with Government intervention. Twenty-eight per cent agreed with a Government takeover.

And a further story on CERA:

People were asked to rate Cera on a scale of zero to 10, with zero being very poor. About 20 per cent of respondents gave Cera a five out of 10; 26 per cent said Cera were doing a good job, 13 per cent complained of a lack of progress; and 9 per cent said they could be doing a better job.

Lack of progress was the main reason for a poor rating.

Research First also calculated a ratings score based on the ratio of low ratings to high. The score ranges from +100 to -100. Cera scored -51 on the scale, compared to -79 for councillors and the mayor, which was the worst ever seen by the polling company.

 

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TV3 Poll early October 2010

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 863 have a party preference, (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 27 September to 06 October 2010

Client: TV3

Report:

Party Support

  • National 53.8% (-0.7%)
  • Labour 32.6% (+2.0%)
  • Green 7.6% (-0.9%)
  • ACT 0.9% (-1.3%)
  • Maori 2.4%  (+0.9%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • NZ First 1.2% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 40
  • Green 9
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT  and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/123 – 7 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 9 = 49/124 -13 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 50.6% (+1.9%)
  • Clark 3.7% (+1.4%)
  • Goff 8.8% (+1.4%)
  • Peters 3.4% (-0.3%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 75.9% (+6.0%) doing well vs 11.9% (-4.0%) doing poorly – net positive is 64.0% (+10.0%%)
  • Goff  – 34.2% (+3.3%) doing well vs 41.9% (-2.0%) doing poorly – net positive is -7.7% (+5.3%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • honest – Key by 18% (-2%)
  • down to earth – Key by 13% (+1%)
  • understands econ problems – Key by 26% (+3%)
  • has personality – Key by 46% (nc)
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 3% (-2%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • inexperienced – Key by 3% (-10%)
  • out of touch – Key by 0% (-4%)

Auckland Mayoralty (500 sample)

  • 56% Brown
  • 34% Banks
Rodney Hide
  • 23% say he should stay as ACT leader
  • 35% say he should step down
  • 36% say he should resign from Parliament

Act Leadership

  • 30% want Heather Roy (of those who did not say Hide should stay)
  • 17% Roger Douglas
  • 11% John Boscawen
  • 42% None

 

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