Posts Tagged MMP

Fairfax Ipsos poll June 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1017 respondents of whom 777 have a party preference

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 14 to 17 June 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 56.6% (+8.9%)
  • Labour 23.2% (-6.3%)
  • Green 11.9% (-0.9%)
  • NZ First 3.2% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-1.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.7% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 1.2% (+0.7%)
  • Conservative 0.9% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 72
  • Labour 30
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 72 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 74/123 – twelve more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 30 + Greens 15 + Mana 2 = 47/123 – fifteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/122

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 53.3% (+4.7%)
  • David Cunliffe 11.9% (-1.5%)
  • Winston Peters 2.5% (-0.9%)
  • Russel Norman 2.8% (+0.8%)

Country Direction

  • Right 63.1% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 35.4% (-0.2%)

Time for a Change of Government

  • Yes 43.8% (-2.5%)
  • No 48.0% (-0.1%)

Government Performance Out of 10

  • 0 – 2: 9.4% (+0.4%)
  • 3 – 7: 66.0% (-1.0%)
  • 8 – 10: 24.0% (nc)

Most Important Issues

  • Education 22%
  • Economy 21%
  • Health 19%
  • Unemployment 14%
  • Housing Affordability 12%
  • Immigration 4%

MMP Electorate seat threshold

  • 82% against “coat tailing”
  • 14% in favour

Expectation of tax cuts

  • 30% expect tax cuts
  • 61% do not

John Key

  • 22% say they would vote National if John Key stood down
  • 36% say they might depending on who replaced him
  • 39% would not
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NZ Herald Digipoll June 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 12.2%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 659 had a party preference

Dates: 06 to 15 June 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.4% (-0.4%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+1.0%)
  • Green 10.7% (-2.4%)
  • NZ First 3.6% (nc)
  • Maori 0.8% (+0.6%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.7% (-0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.4% (+1.3%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 38
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/123 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 2 = 54/123 -eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 65.9% (-0.6%)
  • Cunliffe 12.7% (+1.6%)
  • Peters 6.2% (-0.3%)
  • Norman 2.5% (-2.0%)

Electorate MP threshold

  • Keep 50%
  • Remove and drop threshold to 4% – 36%

Mana/Internet deal

  • Unprincipled rort 43%
  • Legitimate use of MMP 33%

Country Direction

  • Right 65%

Political Fundraising

  • 42% say politicians speaking regularly to donors in private meetings is a bad look
  • 30% say nothing wrong
  • 21% say it is corrupt

Capital Gains Tax

  • 41% favour
  • 35% opposed

Cannabis

  • 33% decriminalise
  • 20% legalise
  • 45% remain illegal

Immigration

  • Levels about right 50%
  • Too high 35%

Coalition Partners

  • Preferred coalition partner for Labour is Greens 50% then NZ First 35%

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3 News Reid Research Poll May 2013

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error) of whom 849 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 12.8%

Dates: 17 to 23 May 2013

Client: 3 News

Report3NewsPoll may 2013

Party Support

  • National 47.1% (-2.3%)
  • Labour 33.1% (+2.9%)
  • Green 12.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.2% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 2.2%  (+1.2%)
  • United Future 0.4% (+0.3%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.2% (-1.6%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 41
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 57/121 – four fewer than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 40.7% (+3.1%)
  • Shearer 10.5% (+0.5%)
  • Peters 6.1% (+0.8%)
  • Norman 3.6% (+0.3%)

Leadership Performance Ratings

  • John Key – 55.0% (-0.3%) well and 30.3% (-1.9%) poor = +24.7% net well (+1.6%)
  • David Shearer – 36.2% (+3.8%) well and 36.3% (+0.5%) poor = -0.1% net well (+3.3%)

Labour/Green power policy

  • Support 54%
  • Oppose 39%

Waka Jumping

  • 77% support a law to allow parties to expel from Parliament List MPs
  • 18% opposed

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List MPs

UMR polled in January 2013:

The poll included a question asking New Zealanders how strongly they agreed or disagreed with the notion that ‘List MPs are not as accountable to voters as electorate MPs’.

  • 61% of New Zealanders agreed with this statement, compared with 15% who disagreed.  24% were neutral or undecided.
  • Of those who claimed to know a lot or a fair amount about how the system worked, 72% agreed that list MPs were not as accountable.
  • Even a majority (60%) of those who were generally supportive of MMP thought that list MPs were not as accountable.

 

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HoS Key Research MMP Poll

According to a 1200-voter Key Research phone poll commissioned by the Herald on Sunday, regular voters are firmly behind MMP – three voters want to keep it for every two who want it dumped.

The Herald on Sunday poll finds 45 per cent of voters want to keep MMP and 28 per cent want it dropped. Only 1.2 per cent support SM, making it the least popular of the five systems that voters can choose from.

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Manawatu MMP poll

A Manawatu Standard/Versus Research poll of 400 voters showed 53 per cent of voters wanted to keep MMP, 25 per cent preferred First Past the Post, while 21 per cent did not know.

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NZ Herald Digipoll October 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 10.6%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 671 had a party vote preference

Dates: 20 to 27 October 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 53.5% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 30.3% (-1.2%)
  • Green 9.5% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 2.8% (+0.4%)
  • Maori 1.2% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.1% (nc)
  • ACT 1.5% (+0.3%)
  • Mana 0.1% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 38
  • Green 12
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Mana 1
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each with Labour winning Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 70/124 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 51/124 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 70.6% (+0.9%)
  • Goff 13.7% (+2.2%)
  • Peters 3.5% (-1.7%)

Direction

  • Right 59.0% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 32.0% (-0.2%)
  • Unsure 9.0% (+0.7%)

MMP

  • Keep MMP 48%
  • Change 15%
  • Don’t Know 15%

Rugby World Cup

  • 39% say McCaw should be knighted for winning RWC, 61% say no
  • 57% say the RWC was a great event and worth spending $40m on

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