Archive for September, 2008

Polling on New Zealand First

The graph above shows how NZ First have done in every public poll since the 2005 election.

There appears to be a significant difference between the level of support for NZ First in the Roy Morgan polls, as opposed to the five other polling companies. This is not to say Roy Morgan is necessarily wrong – just that there is some sort of systematic or methodological recurring reason why they show a higher level of support.

I don’t have available the full methodology used by Roy Morgan, so it is hard to speculate on why they get such different results. It might be linked to the fact they poll around 60 people a day and report in two week intervals, rather than the shorter time frames of the other polls.

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Roy Morgan Poll early September 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 823 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 01 September to 14 September 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 47.5% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 36.5% (-1.5%)
  • Green 6.5% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+2.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-2.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • Other 1.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 57
  • Labour 44
  • Green 8
  • NZ First 6
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 57 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 + Maori 6 = 66/125 – majority possible
  • National 57 +Maori 6 = 63/125 – majority possible
  • Labour 44 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 + NZ First 6 + Maori 6 = 65/125 = majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.
Country Direction
  • Right 44.0% (-6.5%)
  • Wrong 41.0% (+5.5%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+1.0%)

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One News Colmar Brunton Poll on Winston Peters

The previously reported Colmar Brunton poll had an additional question on Winston Peters.

  • On the issue of how PM Helen Clark has managed Winston Peters over the secret donations scandal, 58% say she has been too soft, 28% about right and 3% too tough.
  • 78% says Peters has not been open and honest on the funding of NZ First and 9% say he has.
  • 68% support National’s stance of ruling Peters out, 24% disagree
  • 63% say Labour should rule Peters out with 26% disagreeing

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ShapeNZ Emissions Trading Poll

Polling Company: ShapeNZ (part of New Zealand Business Council for Sustainable Development)

Poll Method: Internet Sample (not fully random)

Poll Size: 2,204 (2.1% margin of error)

Date: to to 11 September 2008

Client: NZ Business Council for Sustainable Development

Report: NZBCSD Media Release

References: NZ Herald

  • 25% says climate change is an urgent problem, 51% say a problem now , 9% a problem for later and 13% not a problem.
  • 25% say NZ’s response to climate change has been too quick, 39% about right and 33% too slow.
  • 39% support an ETS and 29% do not.
  • Only 10% say they are well informed on the ETS with 46% somewhat informed, 28% somewhat uninformed and 13% uninformed.

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One News/Colmar Brunton September 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,007 total voters and 854 decided voters (3.2% and 3.4% maximum margins of error)

Dates: 6 September to 11 September 2008

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 5.0% (+1.5%)
  • NZ First 1.8% (-0.8%)
  • Maori 1.8% (-1.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.7%)
  • ACT 2.0% (+1.4%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 66
  • Labour 43
  • Green 6
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 3
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 66/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 43 + Progressive 1 + Greens 6 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 57/124 = majority not possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive in order of ease are Greens, NZ First, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 40.0% (+4.0%)
  • Clark 31.0% (-2.0%)
  • Peters 3.0% (nc)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 50% (+6%)
  • Same 23% (+5%)
  • Worse 27% (-11%)

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Roy Morgan Poll late August 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 841 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 18 August to 31 August 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-3.5%)
  • Labour 38.0% (+4.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-4.0%)
  • Maori 3.5% (+1.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 1.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • Other 1.0% (+0.5%)
Breakdowns are also given for Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Other NI and Other SI.
Projected Seats
  • National 56
  • Labour 47
  • Green 10
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 56 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 + Maori 6 = 66/123 – majority possible
  • National 56 +Maori 6 = 62/123 – majority possible
  • Labour 47 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 + Maori 6 = 64/124 = majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive in order of ease are Greens, NZ First, Maori Party and United Future.
Country Direction
  • Right 50.5% (+6.0%)
  • Wrong 35.5% (-5.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (-0.5%)

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NZ Herald DigiPoll August 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 respondents, (3.6% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 3 August to 25 August 2008

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald main story and breakdowns here and graphs here.

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (-5.4%)
  • Labour 36.3% (+5.5%)
  • Green 5.1% (-0.4%)
  • NZ First 2.1% (-2.0%)
  • Maori 3.1% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.9%)
  • ACT 2.3% (+2.1%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 62
  • Labour 45
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Green 6
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 1
  • Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 62 + ACT 3 = 65/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 45 + Progressive 1 + Greens 6 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 59/124 = no majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive in order of ease are Greens, NZ First, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 46.6% (-0.5%)
  • Clark 45.0% (+1.0%)
  • Peters 5.6% (+0.7%)

Most influential issue

  • Economy 24.7% (+1.8%)
  • Law & Order 17.0% (-0.2%)
  • Tax Cuts 16.3% (-0.2%)
  • Hospital Waiting Lists 13.8% (nc)

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Colmar Brunton on Peters as Foreign Minister

In August, Colmar Bruton asked whether the allegations about Winston Peters were having an impact on his job as Foreign Minister.

They asked regardless of whether you support New Zealand First, which of the following statements best sums up your opinion on whether this has affected Mr Peters’ ability to carry out his role as Foreign Minister.”

It was asked from 9-14 August 2008

  • It has affected his ability to a high degree – 27%
  • It has had some impact on his ability to do the job – 37%
  • It has made no difference to him doing the job – 32%
  • Don’t Know – 5%

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Hamilton East and West polls

The Waikato Times and Versus Research have done polls in Hamilton East and Hamilton West.

Their online report does not specify the sample size or dates of the polls apart from “Monday and Tuesday evenings”.

Hamilton West Electorate Vote

  • Tim Macindoe (Nat) 37%
  • Martin Gallagher (Lab) 35%
  • Don’t Know 24%

Hamilton East Electorate Vote

  • David Bennett (Nat) 61%
  • Sue Moroney (Lab) 14%
  • Don’t Know 14%

Hamilton Party Vote

  • National 49%
  • Labour 25%
  • National 58% PV in Ham East and 40% in Ham West

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Justice System Confidence

A Research NZ poll of 500 respondents on confidence in the justice system was conducted from 7 to 14 August 2008.

  • 36% say they have full trust and confidence in the NZ justice system, and 62% do not.
  • The more money a respondents earns, the less likely they are to trust the justice system.
  • 1% say sentences are too hard, 75% too soft and 21% about right.
  • 48% support capital punishment for the worst murders and 49% do not.

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