One News Colmar Brunton poll October 2013

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,014 respondents of whom 820 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 19 to 23 October 2013

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 45.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 34.0% (nc)
  • Green 13.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 1.4% (+0.1%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • NZ First 3.9% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 1.6% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 43
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 43 + Greens 16 + Mana 1= 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 43% (+1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 12% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 4% (nc)
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