Roy Morgan Poll late May 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 942, of whom 853 have a party preference

Dates: 16 May to 29 May 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 38.0% (+8.0%)
  • Green 6.5% (-3.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+0.5)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 45
  • Green 8
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – 2 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 45 + Greens 8 + Mana 1 = 54/122 – 8 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.0% (-1.5%)
  • Wrong 28.0% (-2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 17.0% (+3.5%)
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