One News Colmar Brunton poll February 2015

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 840 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 10%

Dates: 14 February to 18 February 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (+3.9%)
  • Labour 31.0% (+5.8%
  • Green 10.0% (-2.5%)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.1%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.4% (-1.4%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (-2.1%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (-2.9%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 39
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 12 = 51/122 – 11 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 2 + NZ First 7 = 9/122

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 41% (-2.0%)
  • Andrew Little 12% (nc from Cunliffe)
  • Winston Peters 7% (+2.0%)

Islamic State

  • 48% support sending New Zealand troops to help train Iraqi security forces to fight ISIS
  • 42% opposed

Alcohol Sponsorship and Advertising

  • 47% support a ban on alcohol sponsorship and advertising
  • 45% opposed
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