Three News TNS Poll November 2008

Polling Company: TNS

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: not known yet

Client: TV3

Report

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (+0.0%)
  • Labour 33.1% (-4.3%)
  • Green 9.0% (-0.2%)
  • NZ First 3.4% (-0.1%)
  • Maori 2.7% (+0.4%)
  • United Future 0.2% (nc)
  • ACT 2.8% (+1.1%)
  • Progressive 0.3% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 42
  • Green 12
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 4
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 59 + ACT 4 = 63/123 – majority possible
  • Labour 42 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 + Maori 4  = 59/123 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 36.4% (+2.8%)
  • Clark 34.2% (+0.6%)
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