Posts Tagged NZ Political Party Polls

One News Colmar Brunton 17 September 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 838 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 10%

Dates: 12 September to 17 September 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 45.1% (-0.9%)
  • Labour 25.2% (+0.2%
  • Green 12.5% (-1.5%)
  • ACT 0.6% (-0.6%)
  • Maori 1.6% (+0.8%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.8% (+0.4%)
  • NZ First 8.1% (+1.1%)
  • Conservative 4.4% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 32
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 2
  • NZ First 10
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 16 + Mana/Internet 2 = 50/122 – 12 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 10 = 13/122

On this poll the centre parties would hold the balance of power and National could form a centre-right Government with either the Maori Party or NZ First Party while Labour could only form a centre-left Government with both centre parties.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 43% (-3.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 12% (-2.0%)
  • Winston Peters 5% (-1.0%)

 

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3 News Reid Research poll mid September 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 09 to 15 September 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-2.2%)
  • Labour 25.6% (-0.5%)
  • Green 14.4% (+1.4%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Maori 1.1%  (-0.2%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.0% (+0.3%)
  • NZ First 7.1% (+1.2%)
  • Conservative 4.9% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 33
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/124 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 18 + Mana/Internet 3 = 54/124 – nine fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 3 = 12/124

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 44.1% (-1.2%)
  • David Cunliffe 12.3% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 9.1% (+1.2%)

Preferred Coalition Partner for National

  • All voters – NZ First 54%, Conservatives 37%
  • National voters – NZ First 36%, Conservatives 54%

Kim Dotcom and hacking

  • 38% think Kim Dotcom was behind hacking of Whale Oil’s e-mails
  • 32% do not
  • 30% unsure

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Roy Morgan poll mid September 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 935 of whom 888 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 01 September to 14 September 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.5% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 24.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 13.5% (-2.5%)
  • NZ First 8.0% (+2.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 3.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 30
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 30 + Greens 17 + Mana/Internet 1 = 48/121 – thirteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 3 = 13/121

On this poll NZ First and the Maori Party would have the balance of power. National could govern with either of them, while Labour would need both of them.

Country Direction

  • Right 62.0% (+1.0%)
  • Wrong 24.0% (-1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (nc)

 

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Fairfax Ipsos poll 11 September 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 873 have a party preference

Undecideds:

Dates: 04 September to 11 September 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 52.8% (-1.4%)
  • Labour 22.4% (-1.9%)
  • Green 13.0% (+0.1%)
  • NZ First 4.4% (+0.8%)
  • Maori 1.0% (+0.7%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 0.7% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 1.4% (+0.1%)
  • Conservative 3.6% (+1.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 70
  • Labour 29
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 70 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 72/123 – 10 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 29 + Greens 17 + Mana 2 = 48/123 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 57.5% (-0.1%)
  • David Cunliffe 17.5% (nc)

Housing Policies

  • 49% prefer National’s home start grants
  • 38% prefer Labour’s Kiwibuild

Next National Leader

  • Bill English 33%
  • Steven Joyce 22%
  • Paula Bennett 11%
  • Simon Bridges 9%

Affordability of Spending Promises

  • National +42% (62% affordable, 20% unaffordable)
  • Labour -5%
  • NZ First -3%
  • Greens -26%
  • Conservatives -9%
  • Internet Mana -32%

Auckland Transport

  • City Rail Link 40% most important
  • 2nd harbour crossing 32%
  • Dominion Road upgrade 15%
  • Puhoi to Wellsford 12%

Auckland Growth

  • 55% support new suburbs
  • 38% build high rises

 

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NZ Herald DigiPoll 11 September 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds:

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 682 had a party preference

Dates: 04 September to 10 September 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 48.6% (-1.5%)
  • Labour 24.6% (+0.8%)
  • Green 11.5% (+0.1)
  • NZ First 8.1% (+2.1%)
  • Maori 0.7% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.3% (-1.2%)
  • Conservative 3.8% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 31
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/124 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 3 = 48/124 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 3 = 13/124

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 61.6% (-7.3%)
  • Cunliffe 17.9% (+3.9%)
  • Peters 7.8% (+1.4%)
  • Norman 3.3% (+1.0%)

Labour Leadership

  • 45% say  Cunliffe should stay on regardless of result
  • 32% say he should resign and not contest leadership
  • 14% say he should resign and contest leadership

Dirty Politics

  • 81% say the book will not change the way they vote
  • 15% say it will

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One News Colmar Brunton Poll 10 September 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,001 respondents, of whom 865 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 06 September to 10 September 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 25.0% (-1.0%
  • Green 14.0% (+3.0%)
  • ACT 1.2% (+1.1%)
  • Maori 0.8% (+0.6%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.4% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 7.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 4.0% (+1.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 31
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 9
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 18 + Mana/Internet 2 = 51/123 – 11 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 9 = 12/123

On this poll the centre parties would hold the balance of power and National could form a centre-right Government with either the Maori Party or NZ First Party while Labour could only form a centre-left Government with both centre parties.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 46% (-2.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 14% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 6% (+2.0%)

 

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3 News poll early September 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 01 to 08 September 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 46.7% (+0.3%)
  • Labour 26.1% (+0.2%)
  • Green 13.0% (+0.4%)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 1.3%  (-0.7%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.7% (nc)
  • NZ First 5.9% (+0.1%)
  • Conservative 4.7% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 33
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 2
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/123 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 17 + Mana/Internet 2 = 52/123 – ten fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/123

On this poll, the centre parties would hold the balance of power. National could govern with NZ First or with the Maori Party (and ACT/UF). Labour could only govern with the Greens, Internet Mana, NZ First and the Maori Party.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 45.3% (+0.2%)
  • David Cunliffe 12.3% (+0.9%)

 

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One News Colmar Brunton poll early September 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,001 respondents, of whom 882 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 7%

Dates: 30 August to 03 September 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-2.0%
  • Green 11.0% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 0.2% (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.4% (+0.8%)
  • NZ First 7.0% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 2.9% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 32
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 8
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/125 – two more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 3 = 49/125 – 14 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 8 = 11/125

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 48% (+1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 14% (+2%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (-1.0%)

Next National Party Leader

  • Bill English 28%
  • Steven Joyce 16%
  • Paula Bennett 7%
  • Judith Collins 2%
  • Michael Woodhouse 2%

Economic Outlook

  • Better 56% (nc)
  • Worse 17% (-2%)
  • Same 27% (+2%)

Preferred Housing Policies

  • National 44%
  • Labour 21%
  • Greens 31%

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NZ Herald DigiPoll early September 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds:

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom xxx had a party preference

Dates: 28 August to 03 September 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.1% (-0.6%)
  • Labour 23.8% (-0.3%)
  • Green 11.4% (nc)
  • NZ First 6.0% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.4% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.4% (+0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 3.5% (+0.1%)
  • Conservative 3.8% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 30
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 4
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/123 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 30 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 4 = 48/123 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/123

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key
  • Cunliffe
  • Peters
  • Norman

Coalition preferences

  • 47% say National should go with NZ First, 35% Conservatives
  • Among National voters, 47% Conservatives, 38% NZ First

Farmers and Environment

  • 47% agree that farmers were continually improving their practices and were unfairly criticised by environmentalists.
  • 39% of respondents agreed that farmers were moving too slowly to improve their practices
  • 7% said they deserve all the criticism they get from environmentalists

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Fairfax Ipsos poll early September 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 819 have a party preference

Undecideds: 13.0%

Dates: 28 August to 03 September 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 54.2% (+3.4%)
  • Labour 24.3% (-1.8%)
  • Green 12.9% (+1.1%)
  • NZ First 3.6% (-0.4%)
  • Maori 0.3% (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (nc)
  • ACT 0.2% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 1.3% (-0.9%)
  • Conservative 2.4% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 70
  • Labour 31
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 70 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 72/125 – nine more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 17 + Mana 2 = 50/125 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 57.6% (+2.6%)
  • David Cunliffe 15.8% (-2.1%)

 

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