Posts Tagged Nicky Hager

One News Colmar Brunton poll late August 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 843 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 23 to 27 August 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (+2.0%
  • Green 12.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 0.4% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.6% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 1.6% (-2.3%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 3.2% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 35
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 2
  • NZ First 8
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/123 – one fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 2 = 51/123 – 11 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 8 = 11/124

On this poll National could form a centre-right Governmentwith either the Maori Party or NZ First. Labour could form a Government with both NZ First and Maori Party (and Greens and Internet Mana).

Preferred PM

  • John Key 47% (+2.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 12% (+2%)
  • Winston Peters 5% (+1.0%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 56% (+8%)
  • Worse 19% (-3%)
  • Same 25% (-5%)

Hager book

  • Believe allegations 41% (+13%)
  • Not believe 35% (-8%)
  • Unsure 24% (-5%)
  • Net negatively influenced view of National 13% (+8%)
  • Collins should stand down 61% agree, 26% disagree
  • Key informed of SIS OIA released – 41% believe he was not, 44% do not believe him

 

 

Leave a Comment

Fairfax Ipsos poll late August 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 825 have a party preference

Undecideds: 17.5%

Dates: 21 to 27 August 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 50.8% (-4.3%)
  • Labour 26.1% (+3.6%)
  • Green 11.8% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 4.0% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.7% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 2.2% (+0.1%)
  • Conservative 2.7% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 34
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/123 – six more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 15 + Mana 3 = 52/123 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 55.0% (-4.5%)
  • David Cunliffe 17.9% (+3.8%)

Dirty Politics

  • 30% say all parties do it
  • 28% say National worst
  • 17% Internet-Mana
  • 17% Labour
  • 47% say book damages John Key, 43% disagree
  • 8% say it has led them to change their vote
  • 55% say all politicians play “dirty”

Comments (1)

NZ Herald DigiPoll mid August 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 12.5%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 656 had a party preference

Dates: 14 to 20 August 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (-4.9%)
  • Labour 25.2% (-1.3%)
  • Green 13.7% (+3.8%)
  • NZ First 4.7% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 0.7% (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.4% (+0.4%)
  • ACT 0.6% (+0.6%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.1% (-0.1%)
  • Conservative 2.6% (+1.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 32
  • Green 18
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/122 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 18 + Mana/Internet 3 = 53/124 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 64.8% (-8.5%)
  • Cunliffe 14.6% (+4.1%)
  • Peters 5.1% (-0.4%)
  • Norman 3.5% (+1.5%)

Leader Approval

  • John Key – 59.6% approve and 16.6% disapprove = +43.0% net approval
  • David Cunliffe – 19.2% approve and 31.9% disapprove = -12.7% net approval

Hager Book

  • 11% say it will cause a lot of damage
  • 43% little damage
  • 25% no damage

Farm Sales to Foreigners

  • 13% no restrictions
  • 33% ban
  • 50%+ approve if it brings advantages such as jobs

Referenda

  • 66% say referenda should be binding on the Government
  • 22% disagree

Leave a Comment

One News Colmar Brunton on Hager allegations

A snap One News Colmar Brunton poll found:

  • 77% have heard of Hager book, 23% have not
  • 28% believe National organised smear campaigns, 43% do not and 29% unsure
  • 9% say revelations have negatively influenced their view of National, 4% positively influences and 82% no difference
  • 12% say now more likely to vote on election day, 1% less likely and 87% no difference

Comments (1)