Posts Tagged local body elections

Curia poll on Auckland Mayoralty

Curia was commissioned to do a poll of 1,200 Auckland residents on the upcoming mayoral elections, on behalf of Hon John Banks. The poll was done over five days last week.

The client, has given permission for the topline results to be released publicly.

There are some differences in methodology from other recent polls on the Mayoralty. These are:

  1. The Curia poll sample and responses reflect turnout for the 2007 local govt elections. In other words, the proportion of responses from one particular territorial local authority is approximately the same proportion of votes cast in that TLA, as a share of the entire region.
  2. The Curia poll has a large sample of 1,200 responses, which has a margin of error of only 2.9%. A recent other poll had a 4.6% margin of error.
  3. The Curia poll asks respondents who would be their preference for Mayor, not who they think will be a better Mayor, as asked in a recent other poll.
  4. The Curia poll was taken as a snapshot over five days, the other recent poll was taken over seventeen days.
  5. The Curia poll was a short stand alone poll, not part of a longer omnibus poll.
  6. Two questions were asked – first an unprompted question on which Aucklander they would like to be Mayor, and then a second question asking their preference if it is a choice between Auckland Mayor John Banks and Manukau Mayor Len Brown.

The first question was:

If an election was held today for Mayor of the new Auckland Supercity, which Aucklander would you most like to be Mayor?

  1. John Banks 42.5%
  2. Len Brown 38.1%
  3. Bob Harvey 7.2%
  4. Stephen Tindall 4.8%
  5. Others 3.2%
  6. Paul Holmes 1.4%
  7. Mike Lee 1.3%
  8. Michael Barnett 1.3%
  9. Andrew Williams 0.4%

These are percentages of those who had an opinion. 34.1% of respondents could not or would not name a preferred Mayor unprompted.

The second question was:

If the choice for Mayor of the Auckland Super City was between Manukau City Mayor Len Brown and Auckland City Mayor John Banks, which one would be your preference?

John Banks 50.0%

Len Brown 50.0%

In a two way race, an identical number of respondents supported both John Banks and Len Brown.  14.8% of respondents were undecided, or would not express a preference.

The change since September

A poll was also done in September 2009 of 1,200 respondents. Changes between the two polls are:

  • Banks Unprompted – from 39.0% in Sep 09 to 42.5% in Feb 10
  • Brown Unprompted – from 44.5% in Sep 09 to 38.1% in Feb 10
  • Banks Prompted – from 45.1% in Sep 09 to 50.0% in Feb 10
  • Brown Unprompted – from 54.9% in Sep 09 to 50.0% in Feb 10

In my opinion this reflects the higher profile John Banks has had in the first two months of 2010, and lower profile of Len Brown.

John Banks’ press secretary, Scott Campbell, can be contacted on 021 426 342 or by e-mail if comment is desired.

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Auckland Mayor Poll

UMR polled 482 Aucklanders on who they thought would be a better Mayor for the new Auckland Council.

42% said Len Brown and 31% John Banks

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UMR poll on Auckland Mayor

UMR polled 482 Aucklanders as part of two omnibus surveys of 1,500 NZers in June and July 2009. The maximum margin of error at 95% confidence is 4.5%.

Questions were asked on possible two-way clashes for the Auckland Mayoralty.

John Banks vs Mike Lee has 35% Banks, 18% Lee, 22% unsure and 25% don’t know enough.

John Banks vs Len Brown has 34% Banks, 35% Brown, 14% unsure and 17% don’t know enough.

The demographic breakdowns have high margins of error. But the margins between Banks and Brown are:

  • Men +5% (Banks 5% ahead of Brown)
  • Women -6%
  • South Auckland -23%
  • Central Auckland +1%
  • East Auckland +0%
  • West Auckland +5%
  • North Shore +8%
  • Under 30s +16%
  • 30 – 44 yrs +1%
  • 45 – 59 yrs -15%
  • 60+ yrs -8%
  • Under $30K pers income -1%
  • $30 to $50k +18%
  • Over $50k -7%

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